Published: 24 June 2022
Last updated: 5 March 2024
Likud is in front but without enough allies for government; Arabs and Haredim are both potential kingmakers, but stalemate is likely
As Israel braces for its fifth election since 2019, three separate TV polls show that the two rival political blocs remain deadlocked, as they were in the previous four elections, although all showed the bloc of parties loyal to opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu faring significantly better than it did in the 2021 elections.
The polls predicted that neither the current coalition nor opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-religious bloc would receive a majority of 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset, assuming there are no changes in the constellation of parties and alliances in the coming months, an unlikely prospect. Outgoing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, for instance, whose Yamina party is polling at 4-5 seats, at times indicated a willingness to sit in a Netanyahu-led government before his own coalition was finalised.
The surveys were aired a day after Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid announced that they would move to dissolve the Knesset, as multiple defections from parties in the ruling coalition rendered it unable to govern. Reactions to the dissolution have set the stage for the election.
Analyst Ben Caspit wrote in Al-Monitor that in his decision to dissolve parliament, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett preferred his legacy as the prime minister who took on Iran with unprecedented intensity, rather than the one who succumbed to backbenchers in his own party.
While Netanyahu has pledged to form a “broad national government,” he would embrace with fervour the choice of establishing a narrow government comprised of nationalist, ultra-Orthodox and fascist parties, if the vote enables it, said Caspit.
Arab voters will hold considerable sway with Ra’am, which made history a year ago as the first Arab party to join a ruling coalition, up against the rival Arab Joint List, which has refused to participate in government.
A significant factor in the Arab community will be turnout. Apathy and indifference towards elections is a strong force in the Arab community, wrote Jack Khoury in Haaretz.
“The Arab public sees the situation differently from the left and centre. The threat of a government led by Netanyahu and [far right religious Zionist] Itamar Ben Gvir doesn’t encourage the Arab community to vote. That public, which aspires to influence and create change, understands that the experiment has failed, both for the Joint List with its 15 Knesset seats and for United Arab List in the coalition,” he wrote.
At the other end of the spectrum, Haredi leaders have welcomed the collapse of the government, one of very few in recent memory that didn’t include Haredi parties. Many attributed its downfall to divine intervention.
The person who has most to win – or lose – is former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who not only faces the possibility of regaining office but also the opportunities that the election result may offer as a bargaining chip in his ongoing corruption trial.
READ MORE
Polls point to return of dreaded deadlock in next elections, unless alliances shift (Times of Israel)
A year out of power, Haredim hail government’s downfall, credit divine intervention (Times of Israel)
Israel's Arab Ra’am party rocked by decision to disperse Knesset (Al-Monitor)
Israel's terror wave knocked government over, rebel MKs produced final blow (YNet)
Netanyahu senses opportunity in Israel's political chaos (Al-Monitor)
Israel Election: Arab Voters Will Decide if the Far-right Wins Power (Haaretz)
How Israel's Early Elections Will Affect Netanyahu's Corruption Trial (Haaretz)
Photo: A billboard from Israel’s last election in March 2021 (AAP)
