‘Hell is breaking loose’: Hezbollah aims for Tel Aviv

Israel’s military chief has declared the country is preparing for a possible ground invasion of Lebanon to counter Hezbollah attacks on the country’s north.

Israel is already hammering southern Lebanon hard with air strikes, killing at least 560 and forcing thousands to seek refuge this week. Among the dead are Hezbollah commanders Ibrahim Kobeisi and Hussein Ezzedine.

Hezbollah has shot thousands of rockets into northern Israel over the past year and is now reaching deeper into the country. On Wednesday, Israel shot down a missile that Hezbollah said it had aimed at the headquarters of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, near Tel Aviv – the first time the Iran-backed militant group has tried to strike so deeply into Israeli territory.

The US and France have called for a 21-day temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to make way for broader negotiations. UN secretary general, António Guterres, told a UN security council meeting that “hell is breaking loose” in Lebanon and US President Joe Biden warned the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah had threatened to become an “all-out war”.

An Israeli official said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had given the “green light” to pursue a possible deal, but only if it includes the return of Israeli civilians to their homes.

The head of Israel’s military, Herzi Halevi, told troops on Wednesday that its airstrikes in Lebanon were aiming to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure and to pave the way for a possible ground incursion by Israeli forces.

“You hear the jets overhead; we have been striking all day,” he said, while visiting the country’s northern border with Lebanon. "This is both to prepare the ground for your possible entry and to continue degrading Hezbollah."

But analysts warn that Hezbollah is a stronger enemy than Hamas, and has military capabilities that it has yet to employ. Iran does not want a regional war and has so far contained Hezbollah but, if Iran lets Hezbollah loose, the terrorist organisation could rain tens of thousands of rockets reaching deep into Israel.

“Hezbollah is not Hamas. It is a state within a state,” said security researcher and former National Security Council member Yoel Guzansky told CNN.

Hezbollah is estimated to have 130,000 rockets and missiles, which it has steadily stockpiled since its last conflict with Israel in 2006, including long range missiles.

Andreas Krieg, professor at the Defence Studies Department of King's College London, told Middle East Eye that while "a considerable amount of short and mid-range missiles have been destroyed" by Israeli attacks on Lebanon in the past week, the terrorist has larger missiles with bigger warheads and longer range stored underground.

“Hezbollah's combined missile capability is the greatest physical threat to Israel,” said Krieg. “Because of its proximity to Israel, it makes interception more tricky as there is less warning time, particularly for longer range missiles that take a different trajectory than the smaller missiles Hezbollah has fired in the last 12 months.”

“The damage in Israel will be so considerable that there is no stepping back from the abyss anymore.”

If full-scale war is not averted, Israel will find itself fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon simultaneously. Israelis will face military losses, continued evacuation and economic costs, worsening divisions in Israeli society.

But Lebanon will face heavier casualties, inevitably including civilians, aggravating Israel’s legitimacy crisis on the world stage.

READ MORE

Israeli military preparing for possible Lebanon ground incursion, army chief says (CNN)

Biden says ‘all-out’ Middle East war possible as Netanyahu greenlights truce talks (Times of Israel)

Hezbollah fires missile at Tel Aviv after heavy Israeli strikes on Lebanon (NPR)

France and US push for 21-day Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire in Lebanon as UN chief warns ‘hell is breaking loose (Guardian)

Israel's war on Lebanon: What arms does Hezbollah have? (Middle East Eye)

RELATED ANALYSIS

Israel hoping Lebanon attacks force Hezbollah to make a deal, but the war may drag on by (Amos Harel, Haaretz)
It would be best not to make the mistake of cosmic optimism, in spite of the very painful hits Hezbollah suffered over the past week – likely the worst in its history. The regime in Tehran built up this capability in Lebanon to serve as a deterrent against Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear installations. Now it will have to decide whether their use now – a situation it was dragged into because of an uncoordinated attack by Hamas from Gaza and Hezbollah's stubborn insistence on attacking Israel as a show of solidarity with the Palestinians, justifies the price.

Nasrallah miscalculated, and Hezbollah's war with Israel is now in Iran's hands (Zvi Bar'el Haaretz)
The outcome of the war between Israel and Hezbollah won't just influence Iran's standing in Lebanon and Syria but also the power of its "ring of fire" – the presence of its proxies throughout the region, which act as an effective deterrent against any direct attack. If the strongest link in the "ring" becomes weaker, it's an existential test of the basic assumptions on which the whole network was built. It could potentially even make Iran reassess its regional strategy, which has served it so efficiently and with considerable success until now.

Another Gaza? (Jeremy Bowen, BBC)
The last week in Lebanon brings back echoes of the last year of war in Gaza. Israel issued warnings to civilians, as it did in Gaza, to move out of areas about to be attacked. It blames Hezbollah, as it blames Hamas, for using civilians as human shields. Israel insists it has a moral army that respects the rules. But much of the world has condemned its conduct in Gaza. The ignition of a wider border war will deepen the gap at the centre of a highly polarised argument.

Hezbollah steps up its response to Israeli attacks, but its gloves are not fully off (Christian Edwards, CNN)
Reeling from the biggest-ever hits to its military structure, Hezbollah has discreetly expanded its war aims. It said it launched the ballistic missile Wednesday in support of Palestinians in Gaza and, crucially, in “defense of Lebanon and its people” – an explicit recognition that it is now engaged in a conflict to protect its own territory. Hezbollah insists there will be no ceasefire in Lebanon until there is one in Gaza. Netanyahu’s government not only insists there will not be a ceasefire in Gaza – its pivot to Lebanon makes the possibility of a deal even more remote.