Another war without an exit strategy

During the failed war in Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu has declared on several occasions that Israel is “just a step away” from victory. But there has been no victory, no use of diplomatic means to consolidate battlefield gains, and no exit strategy.

Israel set back Iran tremendously with devastating surprise strikes on Friday June 13, but Netanyahu’s declaration on Monday that “We are on the path to victory” could also prove inaccurate.

Israel seems to be again lacking both an exit strategy and the readiness to use diplomatic tools to cash in on the military gains, while Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel are causing significant destruction and fear.

While the war is thus far popular among the public and political elite who see it as an unprecedented opportunity to remove an existential threat that would be posed by an Iranian nuclear bomb, analysts interviewed by The Jewish Independent raise questions about how this war started, how long it will go on for, what the US role will be and what the prime minister is actually trying to accomplish.

“Bibi clearly went into this without knowing how it’s going to end, without knowing how we’re going to pull out. This is very dangerous” said veteran strategic analyst Yossi Alpher. “This is what he did in Gaza. At present we’re stuck in Gaza, if you pull out, it’s as if you’re admitting defeat.”

Netanyahu says Israel’s objectives in Iran are to “eliminate the nuclear threat and the missile threat.” Raviv Drucker, a commentator for Israel’s Channel Thirteen and Haaretz, believes the real goal is to topple Iran’s regime, something he believes is not within Israel’s capability. Neither can the ballistic missiles be eliminated through military means, he argues.

Drucker also fears the price in Israel will be too high. “Iran is succeeding in striking us with a level of precision we haven’t seen in the past from any enemy,” he wrote, adding that the damage is more serious than the public is being told and could go on for “weeks and perhaps more.”

“The price that we will pay in human lives, the harm to the economy and the harm to deterrence is enormous.”

The dangers for Israelis of continued warfare were underscored by Iranian strikes early Monday, which proved Israelis are not safe even in their designated security rooms. According to media reports, three people were killed by smoke inhalation inside their sealed room after an Iranian missile struck an oil refinery facility in Haifa. Twenty four people have been killed in Israel and 224 in Iran from the fighting, according to health officials in the two countries. About 1100 people have been wounded in Israel, 15 severely.

While the US role in ending Iran’s nuclear program would be critical, there is no certainty it will materialize, especially given the opposition of some Trump supporters. “For me, what America will do is a big question mark,” said Eldad Shavit, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. The US has been helping Israel deal with the Iranian missile attacks.

The widely held view is that only the US has the massive bombs necessary for destroying the key Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow, which showed no signs of visible damage despite Israeli attack Friday, according to satellite imagery. Natanz and Isfahan, two other nuclear sites that were bombed were damaged, the imagery showed.

Israel’s opening push Friday struck dozens of targets and included assassinations of key military figures and senior nuclear scientists. Iranian air defense has failed badly and Israel feels free to act across the country. On Sunday, the Israeli air force mounted its longest strike destroying planes at Mashad airport, 2300 kilometers from Israel, according to the IDF. On Monday, Israel struck the headquarters of Iranian state television in Tehran

But despite the massive blow to Iran, Netanyahu again seems averse to a political solution or quitting while Israel is ahead.

It may be that he wanted to sabotage a US-Iran agreement is the strategy, based on the idea that the Iranians cannot be trusted under any circumstances. Israel launched the war just two days before the US and Iran were due to hold a crucial negotiating session.

On Monday, Netanyahu was dismissive about reports Iran is seeking US backing for a ceasefire to end the war and then return to negotiations with the Trump administration. “They want to continue counterfeit talks in which they lie and deceive and pull around the United States,” he said. “They want to continue to build nuclear weaponry and an arsenal of ballistic missiles which they fire at our country.”

Both Iran and Israel have an interest in stopping the fighting, says Salim Brake, who teaches political science at the Open University. Iran has been greatly weakened and has an interest in striking a deal with Washington. Israel, for its part, has suffered heavy damage from the Iranian missiles and does not want to continue much longer.

“I think both sides want the war to be shorter but sometimes there are uncontrollable dynamics,” he said.

Yossi Melman, who covers intelligence affairs for Haaretz, believes that if Israel pursues regime change to the point where Iran defines the war as an “existential threat” Tehran might react by expanding the conflict. It could harm freedom of shipping in the Persian Gulf, attack American bases in Arab countries and target oil and gas installations in the Gulf countries.

“Israel should seek an end to the war and make do with the impressive gains it has achieved. It should undertake through the president of the United States a process that will lead to an arrangement with Iran.” Melman wrote.

Alpher, the veteran analyst, questioned whether the Israeli public has the stamina for a lengthy war, noting that it is fatigued from the Gaza war and facing rocket and missile attacks from Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemen’s Houthis.

“I think the stamina is limited. When it’s going to start to peter out, I can’t tell you, but it’s not forever. Unlike Iran, here public opinion can be felt. If the public is getting angry it’s a factor.”

“If this deteriorates into a war of attrition we’ll be in trouble,” Alpher said.