Israel-Iran war may now depend on Trump and declining missile stockpiles

While Israeli strikes have dealt a blow to Iran’s military infrastructure, Tehran’s much-feared axis of regional allies has yet to fully mobilise. Trump’s strategic indecision and muted responses from Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and Russia, mean a complex web of restraint, caution, and political calculation is holding back a broader regional eruption — for now.

The US military has built up its presence in the Middle East in recent days. A third US Navy destroyer has entered the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and a second US carrier strike group is heading towards the Arabian Sea. While the Pentagon claims the build-up is purely defensive, it also positions the US more favourably should President Trump decide to join Israeli attacks on Iran. It may also be a tactic to pressure Iran into capitulation or concessions.

The IDF and Mossad’s early success in their campaign against Iran could potentially tip the scales in favour of US intervention Amos Harel argues in Haaretz. While Israel launched the devastating surprise attack on Iran in the first days of the war, it now appears to be approaching the limits of its capabilities. Israeli officials have long acknowledged that, despite the air force’s advanced capabilities, Israel cannot destroy the fortified, deep-underground nuclear facility at Fordow without American support. The US Air Force’s B-2 heavy bombers are not available for lease, and Israeli pilots cannot fly them without extensive training. This puts the decision squarely in the hands of US President Donald Trump.

The "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) syndrome—coined by the Financial Times—portrays Trump as someone who avoids confrontation. Such accusations reportedly enrage him, and he may now be tempted to ride the wave of Israel’s military success and declare himself the one who finally eliminated the Iranian nuclear threat through force.

As of late Wednesday, Trump appeared still undecided. He stated he had not ruled out a meeting with Iran: “I may do that,” he said, ahead of a meeting in the White House Situation Room to discuss Israel’s operation. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told senior aides late Tuesday he had approved attack plans against Iran but was waiting to see whether Tehran would abandon its nuclear ambitions.

This came after Trump left the G7 summit in Canada early to return to Washington. French President Emmanuel Macron had assumed Trump would push for a ceasefire, but Trump declared that Macron “once again had no clue” and that the matter at hand was “much bigger.” A high-level consultation was scheduled that evening with senior administration officials.

Trump also launched a crude attack on right-wing commentator and TV host Tucker Carlson—once one of his most ardent supporters—over Carlson’s isolationist stance on American support for Israel. Trump argued that the "America First" doctrine does not include allowing Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.

IIran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in a televised speech that the Islamic Republic “will not surrender,” warning that if the US takes military action, it “will undoubtedly cause irreparable consequences for them.” He declared:

“The Iranian nation stands firm against an imposed war, just as it will stand firm against an imposed peace. This nation will not surrender to anyone in the face of imposition.”

Khamenei added: “Intelligent people who know Iran, the Iranian nation, and its history will never speak to this nation in threatening language. The Iranian nation will not surrender, and the Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly cause irreparable harm.”

This was Khamenei’s first response to President Trump’s Tuesday call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”

The outcome of the defining conflict between Israel and Iran may come down to one rough estimate: Israel’s supply of Arrow missiles versus Iran’s stockpile of ballistic missiles.

Israeli military sources and analysts suggest Iran has fired around 700 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) at Israel over the past 14 months, leaving an estimated 300–1,300 remaining. This stockpile has been targeted by Israel’s ongoing air campaign, which the IDF says has destroyed at least a third of Iran’s surface-to-surface launchers, potentially weakening Iran’s retaliatory capability.

Meanwhile The Wall Street Journal reports that Israel is running low on its defensive “Arrow” missile interceptors, citing a US official. This raises concerns about Israel’s ability to withstand a prolonged ballistic missile campaign. Since the war began, the US has deployed additional missile defence systems to Israel and may even start using its own interceptors.

The IDF responded by stating it is "prepared and ready to handle any scenario," but declined to comment on specific munitions. There has been no official Israeli confirmation of an Arrow shortage, and most Iranian missiles launched recently have been intercepted—at rates similar to those during Iran’s 2024 attacks.

In the past 24 hours, missile launches from Iran have declined slightly, with only a handful of missiles fired per salvo. However, the IDF warns this could reflect a strategy of attrition rather than a lack of munitions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday offered to mediate an end to the Israel-Iran conflict, suggesting Moscow could help negotiate a deal that allows Iran a peaceful nuclear program while addressing Israeli security concerns.

“It’s a delicate issue,” he told senior international news editors, “but in my view, a solution could be found.” Trump responded by saying he told Putin to focus on resolving his own conflict in Ukraine.

Despite calls for diplomacy, Russia has not offered direct assistance to Iran. Nikita Smagin, a Russia–Iran expert, told The Guardian that Moscow is unwilling to risk a confrontation with the US or Israel on Iran’s behalf.
A source close to Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned that if Iran’s regime collapses, it would be a greater strategic and reputational loss for Moscow than the fall of Damascus. Iran’s parliament recently ratified a strategic partnership treaty with Russia, but the Russian Foreign Ministry clarified that it does not commit Moscow to military support.

Russia has also refrained from delivering advanced weaponry Iran has requested. Claims of pending sales of Sukhoi Su-35 jets remain unconfirmed, with only Yak-130 training aircraft known to have arrived. Moscow’s restraint reinforces the perception that it will not risk a direct confrontation to defend Tehran.

Six days into the Israel–Iran war, Iran’s armed proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen have largely stayed on the sidelines, despite rhetorical support. For years, Israel and its defence establishment warned of a united “Axis of Resistance” comprising Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraq’s Shia militias. Yet this supposed alliance has not materialised into collective military action.

Hezbollah, weakened by its recent clashes with Israel and under political pressure in Lebanon, has taken a restrained position. Its leaders have expressed solidarity with Iran but have made no threats of retaliation, emphasising that Iran has not asked for military support and can defend itself.

Iraqi militias, similarly, have avoided escalation. Limited drone activity near US bases appears intended as a symbolic warning rather than an offensive. These militias remain aligned with Iran’s call for restraint, while warning that if the US joins the war, they will target American interests. Iraq’s government has pressured these groups to avoid provocation and maintain stability.

Only the Houthis in Yemen have continued launching missiles at Israel, though at a reduced pace. Houthi leaders condemned Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear sites and warned of retaliation against any aggression toward Arab or Muslim countries.

As Haaretz’s Jack Khoury noted, it is unlikely Iran was surprised by this lack of support. Tehran probably understands the regional power dynamics well—Russia and China are not dependable allies in the American-Israeli sense. Their moves are slow, cautious, and shaped by complex, often conflicting interests.

READ MORE

Israel is running low on defensive interceptors, official says (Paywall, The Wall Street Journal)

'TACO Syndrome' could tempt Trump to ride the wave of Israel's success and join the war against Iran (Amos Harel, Haaretz)

Hezbollah sits on the sidelines and the Houthis barely fire: Iran's friends appear to have abandoned her (Ynetnews)

Iran's axis of evil seems to be unraveling, but was it ever even there? (Jack Khoury, Haaretz)

Iranian regime collapse would be serious blow for Russia (The Guardian)  

Regime change emerges as unstated goal of Israel's war in Iran (Axios)