Israel-Iran war may now depend on Trump and declining missile stockpiles

While Israeli strikes have dealt a blow to Iran’s military infrastructure, Tehran’s much-feared axis of regional allies has yet to fully mobilise. Trump’s strategic indecision and muted responses from Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and Russia, mean a complex web of restraint, caution, and political calculation is holding back a broader regional eruption — for now.

The US military has built up its presence in the Middle East in recent days. A third US Navy destroyer has entered the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and a second US carrier strike group is heading towards the Arabian Sea. While the Pentagon claims the build-up is purely defensive, it also positions the US more favourably should President Trump decide to join Israeli attacks on Iran. It may also be a tactic to pressure Iran into capitulation or concessions.