Israeli deal with Saudi Arabia hinges on Palestinians

Last week, Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was on the cusp of a deal with Saudi Arabia; this week, the first Saudi ambassador to Palestine arrived.   

Listening to the leaders of Israel and Saudi Arabia, you might think a breakthrough between the longtime enemies is at hand.

 Speaking at the UN General Assembly on Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was "at the cusp" of a "dramatic breakthrough: an historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia." He predicted that such a deal would "encourage a broader reconciliation between Judaism and Islam, between Jerusalem and Mecca, between the descendants of Issac and the descendants of Ishmael."

That same day, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia told Fox News that “every day, we get closer” to normalisation with Israel.

But the deal still needs to overcome the challenges of both Palestinian policy and the complications of internal politics in both Israel and the US.

"For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part," Crown Prince Mohammed said when asked what it would take to get a normalisation agreement with Israel. "And we have a good negotiations strategy until now."

Saudi Arabia’s primary commitment to the Palestinians was illustrated on Tuesday when f its first ambassador to Palestine, Nayef bin Bandar al-Sudairi, presented his credentials to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah.

The appointment of al-Sudairi , who will be based in Jordan, signals Palestinian issues remain key to any deal and al-Sudairi used the occasion to emphasise that Saudi Arabia "is working towards establishing a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital".

Any deal with Israel is likely to include a massive influx of funds from Saudi Arabia to the Palestinian Authority, which will be opposed by the right-wing parties in Israel’s coalition.

On the plus side, Saudi Arabia and Israel are increasingly on the same page when it comes to regional issues, particularly when it comes to their mutual foe: Iran. It’s an open secret that Israel and Saudi Arabia have shared intelligence and coordinated on security issues.

Business ties between the two countries have increased as well, with a survey this week showing a third of Saudis are in favour of business relationships with Israel, although fewer support other kinds of ties. Tourism Minister Haim Katz arrived in Saudi Arabia for a United Nations conference on Tuesday, the first Israeli delegation to visit the country.

Biden administration officials have been shuttling doggedly between Riyadh and Jerusalem to negotiate a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which Atlantic Council fellow Shalom Lipner observes would bring benefits to all three nations.

“Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would stand to pocket items on his ‘shopping list’—which includes a security pact with the United States and possession of a civilian nuclear capacity—and the incidental rehabilitation of his image, which took a major hit after the US intelligence community determined that he ‘approved an operation’ that resulted in the brutal killing of a Washington Post columnist in 2018.

“For Netanyahu, an agreement with Saudi Arabia would be a tipping point that helps unlock the potential of economic and diplomatic horizons from Africa to Asia that were previously out of Israel’s reach. He could also burnish his credentials as a statesman at a time when attention is focused instead on his government’s controversial plans for Israel’s judiciary.

“US President Joe Biden would garner an important foreign policy win, catalysing further integration in that region and, perhaps more critically, scoring a victory for Pax Americana against expanding Chinese influence in the Arabian Peninsula. Enlisting OPEC to offset skyrocketing energy prices would be an additional bonus. (He could apply the additional ballast to his struggling re-election campaign),” Lipner wrote in Foreign Policy this week.

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In first, Israeli minister leads official delegation to Saudi Arabia (Times of Israel)

Third of Saudis want business ties with Israel – poll (Jerusalem Post)

Saudi envoy says 'working to establish Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as capital' (Haaretz)  

ANALYSIS
Bibi’s Dead-End Road to Riyadh (Shalom Lipner, Foreign Policy)
Netanyahu wants a normalisation deal with the Saudis, but his hard-right coalition partners will undermine his plans.

A Saudi-Israel ‘historic peace’ will be hard to pull off, despite what Netanyahu and MBS are saying (Joshua Keating, The Messenger)
A deal would be a big win for Israel - and Joe Biden, too - but there are minefields to clear to get there.

Politics and Palestine, not enrichment, are main obstacles to Israel-Saudi normalisation (Amos Harel, Haaretz)
Israel and the United States both face domestic political opposition to greenlighting a Saudi nuclear program - and Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners have already ruled out any concessions to the Palestinians.

Photo: Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas receiving the credentials of Saudi Arabia's Ambassador to Palestine Nayef bin Bandar al-Sudairi, in Ramallah, West Bank, on Tuesday (THAER GHANAIM - AFP)