On heels of the ceasefire, Trump II era begins

Less than a week out from taking office, President-elect Donald Trump’s immediate response to Biden's announcement of a ceasefire in Gaza was to claim on social media that “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November.”

That is a big claim given that the agreement follows the contours of the three-phase approach that President Biden announced last May and which has been ardently pursued since then by his longtime Mideast negotiator Brett H. McGurk.

But the timing and manner of the agreement gives credence to the recent assertion of journalist Dan Perry that Trump has “enormous leverage on the one person who can end the conflict: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu”.

Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, worked closely with McGurk, particularly in pressuring Netanyahu in regard to Trump’s seriousness when he said that he wanted a ceasefire in place before he took office. Trump is not known for having a collaborative approach and, as the New York Times noted, it is rare for representatives of current and new presidents of different parties worked together at such a high-stakes moment.

But with Trump taking office on Monday, his capacity to have a positive long term impact on the Middle East remains in question.

The first phase of the ceasefire is for just six weeks and, ultimately, a ceasefire is far from a comprehensive vision and plan for peace between Israel and Palestine and across the region. A compelling approach was outlined this week by outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a hard-hitting, final address on the matter. Blinken called for an expanded scope for the Palestinian Authority with purview over Gaza as well as the West Bank and for the Netanyahu government to step back from its goals of settlement and territorial expansion.

"Israelis must abandon the myth they can carry out de facto annexation without cost and consequence to Israel's democracy, its standing, its security,” Blinken said.
Given that the Trump team, includes those who believe “there is no such thing as a West Bank. It's Judea and Samaria” (Ambassador-designate Mike Huckabee) or have called for “the rebuilding of King Solomon’s Temple on the Temple Mount” (Secretary of Defence nominee Pete Hegseth), it is hard to be optimistic about Trump adopting Blinken’s vision, let alone seeing it through.

If these hawkish perspectives prevail and if Israel is encouraged to run roughshod over the Palestinians, the ceasefire could amount to little more than a pause. And continued abuse and degradation of the Palestinian people does not bode well for countering the rise in antisemitism of the past fifteen months.

Then there is the question of domestic policy. Combating antisemitism will be the job of the successor to Deborah Lipstadt as Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism. Candidates for the role appear to be denizens of a typical MAGA clown-car. As reported in Forward, they include “a spotlight-seeking rabbi perhaps best known for having been Michael Jackson’s spiritual adviser (Shmuley Boteach) and an Orthodox New York politician who caused an uproar by wearing blackface for Purim in 2013 (Dov Hikind).”

Trump has threatened to crack down on pro-Palestinian protests and to “set that movement back 25 or 30 years”. If Trump follows through on his intention to use law enforcement to curtail protests and deport non-citizen protesters, antisemitism might become less visible on the streets but more evident in the offenses committed under the cover of darkness.

Trump has repeatedly promised a day one pardon for those convicted for crimes during the January 6 Insurrection. Among those are members of Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and QAnon, all known for pushing Holocaust denialism and Jewish conspiracies theories. Those convicted for their roles in a violent insurrection are not the sort of antisemites you want out on the streets, especially given that Trump has demonised prominent Jewish-Americans like Senators Chuck Schumer and Adam Schiff, Representative Jamie Raskin, and META CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

Generally overlooked in discussing the likely impacts of the Trump administration on antisemitism is that Trump’s economic instincts will lead to increased concentration of income and expanded poverty and homelessness. Homelessness is likely to follow the trend seen in this year’s 18% increase across the US. If Trump repeals Obamacare as promised, millions will be impoverished by medical debt.

Suffering people, at the extremes, seek scapegoats. In the US, QAnon, the far right, and much of MAGA already believe that the Jews control the banks, Hollywood, and the weather. Even Michael Jackson’s one-time spiritual advisor will be unlikely to dissuade them from those beliefs.

Most American Jews do not believe that Trump will effectively address rising antisemitism or the Israel-Palestine conflict. A recent poll found that fewer than a third of respondents were optimistic in that regard, approximately the same proportion of Jews who voted for Trump.

Other than taking credit for Biden’s ceasefire achievement, neither the Middle East nor antisemitism is likely to be a significant, early priority for Trump. Neither topic made it onto Time Magazine's recent list of Trump’s key priorities for Day One.

Those who’ve adopted Trump’s outsized estimation of his skill at “the art of the deal”, will need to take a step back. The establishment of peace and a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine is a bit more complex than negotiating a good price on a casino purchase. And in both cases, there could be more than one roll of the dice involved.