Ultra-Orthodox parties leave Netanyahu’s coalition, but no election in sight

Israel's ultra-Orthodox Shas party announced on Wednesday that all of its ministers would resign from government over the ongoing dispute regarding Haredi military service.

The announcement followed a meeting of the party’s ruling Council of Torah Sages. In a statement from the Council, religious services minister Michael Malchieli condemned the government’s “continued terrible persecution against the holy yeshiva students” and blamed Netanyahu’s Likud party for the enlistment changes.

It comes after the resignation of United Torah Judaism (UTJ) from Netanyahu’s coalition over the same military draft dispute.

Shas’s resignation leaves Netanyahu with a minority government of just 49 out of 120 lawmakers.

Both UTJ and Shas rejected a proposed enlistment bill by Yuli Edelstein, Knesset foreign affairs and defense committee chairman, arguing it broke a prior compromise and failed to provide full amnesty for students who had ignored draft orders, while also imposing biometric check-ins at yeshiva schools.

They joined Yitzhak Goldknopf, who resigned weeks ago as housing minister over the lack of a draft exemption law, and Knesset lawmaker Yisrael Eichler, who left the welfare committee chairmanship in anticipation of a ministerial appointment.

Unlike UTJ, Shas is not joining the opposition. However, its members will resign from all their government posts — including the ministers of health, interior, labour, welfare, and religious services, as well as the deputy agriculture minister. The Shas lawmakers will retain their committee chairmanships in the Knesset.

The crisis stems from a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated the long-standing practice of blanket draft exemptions, forcing the government to legislate a new framework.

With the IDF urgently needing recruits amid the Gaza war, Edelstein’s bill sought gradual Haredi enlistment targets of 4,800 annually. However, UTJ leaders claim Netanyahu never intended to pass such a law and would prefer elections without resolving the issue. While the Knesset’s summer recess offers Netanyahu a temporary reprieve, he also faces pressure from far-right coalition partners over ceasefire talks in Qatar, deepening his political challenges.

The coalition now has 49 lawmakers, including Avi Maoz, who previously announced he was leaving the coalition but still votes with it at times. Still, no election date has been set, and the government could continue to operate as a minority.

The timing may work in Netanyahu’s favour. The Knesset is set to recess on July 27 for a three-month break, giving the prime minister time to resolve the crisis behind closed doors. He is expected to stall over the next two weeks to reach the recess without his government collapsing. Doing so would secure him an additional three months of relative calm, as the Knesset does not advance legislation during recess, and lawmakers cannot vote to dissolve or topple the government.

In addition, polls indicate that any government formed after new elections would likely be less favourable to the ultra-Orthodox parties’ interests. They also fear that an election campaign centred on the draft exemption issue would intensify public opposition, making it even harder for any future government to pass legislation acceptable to their rabbis.

The ultra-Orthodox parties still provide the government with a safety net to prevent its collapse. They may even seek an opportunity to rejoin the coalition after the Knesset’s summer recess, if a resolution to the draft exemption crisis is reached by then.

However, even in this scenario, the winter session, set to begin at the end of October, could well be the final one for Netanyahu’s current government, given the expected challenges in passing the budget by March 2026. Elections would likely follow in early 2026.

The centre-left Yesh Atid party may attempt to collect signatures from Haredi lawmakers to resubmit a bill to dissolve the Knesset. Since a similar bill failed a month ago, it cannot be resubmitted for six months unless 61 Knesset members sign a request for reconsideration. Currently, Yesh Atid is nine signatures short, as all opposition lawmakers have already signed.

If the threshold is met in time, Knesset speaker Amir Ohana would be obliged to allow a new vote —possibly within days. Even then, several more steps would be required before dissolving the Knesset and calling new elections. If the motion were to pass, elections could take place before the end of the year.

The ultra-Orthodox parties join forces with the opposition to topple the government through a constructive no-confidence vote, paving the way for an alternative government within the current Knesset.

For Netanyahu, the Haredi threat is serious — but it’s not the only one he faces. Should he agree to finalise a hostage–ceasefire deal in Gaza, he risks losing the support of his far-right coalition partners, Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party. Both have long threatened to exit the coalition if the war against Hamas is brought to an end.

If they walk, Netanyahu and Likud would be left without any viable partners. This has fuelled speculation that the prime minister may proactively time elections for early next year, hoping to control the narrative rather than face a slow-motion collapse.

Adding further pressure to the already fragile situation is the looming Bein Hazmanim yeshiva break, set to begin in two and a half weeks. In previous years, this vacation period has seen yeshiva students — many of whom travel or work during the break — detained by military police for draft violations.

Now, with large numbers of ultra-Orthodox men officially listed as draft dodgers due to the expiration of the exemption framework, arrests are expected to spike. Inbar Goldner, head of the IDF military police’s detainee unit, told the Knesset that the army is expanding prison capacity to accommodate more detainees, and tripling enforcement at Ben-Gurion airport.

“Anyone flagged as a deserter or draft evader will be detained at police terminals, and arrest teams will be dispatched immediately. We’re building an additional enforcement layer beyond traditional methods, with smart enforcement at checkpoints and in coordination with Israel police,” Goldner said.

A Shas source told Haaretz on Tuesday that if detentions begin in earnest, “there will be blood, fire, and smoke,” predicting mass protests led by senior rabbis. The source added that if no agreement on a new draft law is reached by the start of the Knesset’s winter session, the ultra-Orthodox parties will move to dissolve the Knesset, with or without Netanyahu’s consent. While they would prefer to coordinate an election date with the prime minister, they are prepared to force the issue if needed.

Shay Tayeb, head of the IDF’s human resources planning division, reported that between July 2023 and July 2024, 24,000 draft orders were issued to Haredi men. Of those, 422 enlisted — 98 of them as combat soldiers — about 1,200 showed up at recruitment offices; 3,700 received pre-arrest notices; and 1,300 were classified as evaders, having ignored draft dates for over 540 days.

Tayeb told Ynetnews that enforcement operations resumed in August after a hiatus during the early stages of the war. “These are focused operations aligned with combat draft cycles. We’re investing significant resources in the military police — both enforcement and prison infrastructure. The prison numbers don’t match the scale we may face with non-compliance. State intervention is essential,” he said.

Shas bolts government over Haredi enlistment, remains part of PM’s coalition (Times of Israel)

Ultra-Orthodox parties threaten to bring down Israel's gov't if draft exemption law not passed in three months (Haaretz)

In his bid to let the ultra-Orthodox dodge the draft, Netanyahu proved he knows no shame (Yossi Verter, Haaretz)

Why Netanyahu's coalition will likely survive even if Haredi factions bolt government (Haaretz)

Edelstein stands ground on draft-dodger sanctions as Shas set to depart coalition (Times of Israel)

Are Shas and UTJ poised to collapse Netanyahu’s government? (Ariela Karmel, Time of Israel)