Why opinion polls are partly to blame for Israel’s fifth election

GILAD GREENWALD argues opinion polling has been manipulated by journalists and politicians to bring on Israel’s political crisis

For the past four years, Israel has found itself in one of the most problematic and dangerous constitutional situations in its history, with unprecedented instability of the political system and with five consecutive political campaigns one after the other.

In such complex political situation, public opinion seeks control and certainty about the future. Election polls give media consumers a certain illusion of such control and confidence about what the future holds for them.

Due to the ongoing crisis, election polls have become perhaps the most popular practice of the Israeli media – even when for a moment there was a feeling that the system was stabilised with the establishment of the 36^th government, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Almost every evening (on TV), and every morning (in print newspapers) people encountered election polls, almost to the point that they became a "regular section" of the Israeli journalistic agenda, perhaps similar to the weather forecast or to traffic reports.

Contrary to popular opinion, the power of election polls is not necessarily in the reflection of political reality, but mainly in the media construction of this reality de facto.  The polls have three important impacts in:

First, the almost weekly polls, broadcast for the past year, were in fact a tool in the hands of the political right in Israel, the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu, and many journalists associated with them, such as Amit Segal of Israeli Channel 12, who used the polls to weaken the Bennett-Lapid government, and to drag Israel to a fifth election, an election that will give Netanyahu another (perhaps last) opportunity to return to power.

Naturally, there will always be some weakening in the status and power of an incumbent government, because once formed, it will always disappoint someone. This is especially true in the case of a government that has been in office only for one year, and has not had enough time for long term reforms that will satisfy public opinion (a similar trend can be seen in President Biden's current low popularity in American public opinion).

An almost daily examination of the government's popularity in the media produces a reality of constant political struggle and instability; a feeling that "elections are coming", even when the “objective” reality was completely different in the first place. For instance, MK Idit Silman of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's party, which left the coalition in early April, had to watch almost weekly polls, where her party weakened more and more. This must have played a part in her decision to leave the coalition and join Likud if she wanted any political future. In this example we clearly see the power of polls in actively changing the political balance and structure.

Second, the media and journalistic framing of poll results can be presented in different and varied ways, and can influence the way media consumers perceive them. It is not about the numbers, but about the meanings we provide to the numbers.

A good example is the interpretation of Netanyahu's position. Poll results from the last four years indicate Netanyahu does not have a majority in the Knesset. The Knesset consists of 120 representatives, and Netanyahu’s supporters regularly range in polls from 55 seats to 60 seats.

Yet, time and time again, we come across headlines that read "Netanyahu is close to winning 61 seats". Even when Netanyahu had only 55 seats in the final results of the September 2019 elections, the headlines were similar. Netanyahu's consistent framing as the "winner" of many polls, may become, after five rounds of elections, a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Third, many poll questions are irrelevant, and are asked in a manipulative way that may also dictate the results. A good example is the repeated “Prime Minister Suitability” question. In parliamentary democracies, such as Israel, people do not vote for a person, but for a party. Nonetheless, the question of, "which of the politicians is best suited to serve as prime minister", is raised again and again in election polls.

In Israel, this is usually done in the service of Benjamin Netanyahu: in a Channel 13 poll, published about a month ago, viewers were given the following options: Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Lapid. Netanyahu won the support of about 50% of the viewers, while the other candidates shared the remaining 50%.

The manipulation here is obvious: viewers were given only one option from the opposition (Netanyahu), and three options from the coalition (Ganz, Bennett, Lapid), splitting the response in Netanyahu's favor.

Election polls have played a significant part in the political crisis in Israel over the past four years. It is not unreasonable to assume that if the political media in Israel had been more responsible, ethical, and professional, the constitutional and political crisis we are now facing could have been less severe.

Illustration: Avi Katz