Ceasefire hope: Israel’s defence chiefs say mission accomplished

Published: 31 October 2024

Last updated: 31 October 2024

Israel’s defence chiefs are reported to be ready for a ceasefire, saying the aim of protecting Israel against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been achieved.

They say more extensive fighting will risk large Israeli losses without significantly improving security.

Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said this week that he was hopeful of achieving a ceasefire within days.

A draft ceasefire agreement, obtained by state Israeli broadcaster Kan, would implement UN Resolution 1701 which creates a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Armed Forces would be the only armed body in southern Lebanon other than UNIFIL, and Hezbollah would be prohibited from operating in the area or attacking Israel.

Israel would not carry out offensive operations in Lebanon, including those against military and government targets.

Writing in Haaretz, Amos Harel said the consensus in the defence establishment over the progress of the war is surprisingly broad.

“All senior officials, from Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on down, have been speaking in near-unison for a week. After a dizzying series of military and intelligence successes in the past three months, the war in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon has just about exhausted itself, with only a few necessary measures remaining. Once these are completed, it would be best to try to reach agreements that will end the fighting in the north and south and include the release of all hostages.”

But Harel said previous ceasefire negotiations had been stymied by Netanyahu. “Whenever there is even the slightest shadow of a chance to advance a deal, the prime minister makes sure to shoot it down immediately, by means of a leak or a recording. This time he said he would reject any deal that doesn't let the IDF return to fighting in the Gaza Strip. Army brass say this is a superfluous disagreement: In any event Hamas will eventually violate the agreements in such a way as to require a resumption of the warfare.”

Several conditions have changed which may improve the chance of a ceasefire:

Fear for the lives of the hostages has greatly increased. Every 10 days on average, one hostage dies, an official who is involved in the issue warned the cabinet. Officials in the IDF's Kidnapped and Missing Persons Task Force have stopped talking about the first "humanitarian" phase of the deal, which was supposed to include women, the sick and the wounded. They now assume that after such a long period in captivity, in such difficult conditions, all of the hostages are in fragile health. The condition of the bodies of the six hostages who were murdered by Hamas in Rafah testified to this.
Hezbollah’s new chief Naim Qassem gave a speech this week that resisted linking ceasefire in Lebanon to ceasefire in Gaza. In his first public speech, Qassem threatened Netanyahu’s life but he also said that Hezbollah would agree to a ceasefire with Israel under “acceptable terms”. While these remarks were not dissimilar to those of his predecessor Nasrallah, the separation from Gaza could make a new openness to negotiation.
The IDF’s success in Lebanon in a short and efficient operation so far has increased its influence in internal negotiations in Israel and made it more likely defence chiefs' opinions on the value of a ceasefire could prevail.

READ MORE

Lebanon ceasefire draft revealed (Jerusalem Post)

Lebanon, Israel could agree to ceasefire within days, Lebanese prime minister says (Reuters)

Israel's Defence Chiefs say fighting in Gaza and Lebanon has run its course. Does Netanyahu agree? (Amos Harel, Haaretz)

New Hezbollah chief threatens Netanyahu, but opens door for ceasefire in first speech (Times of Israel)