Contradictory war goals will prevent Israel from achieving ‘victory’ in Gaza

Months after Hamas’s terror attack on Israel which initiated the war in Gaza, and it is still difficult to foresee the end of this conflict.

Israel’s defence minister and IDF leaders have made it clear that the military efforts to attain Israel’s stated goals - dismantling Hamas’s military and civilian capabilities in Gaza and the release of all hostages - will continue throughout 2024.

The IDF campaign is expected to change only in its tactics, moving from massive presence inside Gaza and close-range combat, into more “stand-off” warfare and intelligence-based incursions by special forces.

This operational change will probably set the ground for a long war of attrition in which both sides, among them Palestinian civilians, will continue to suffer casualties.

From an Israeli perspective, the term “victory” seems to many analysts impossible to achieve because the two goals dictated to the IDF by the government fundamentally contradict each other: Hamas leaders are using the remaining 130-plus hostages as the ultimate human shield and considers them as an “insurance policy” against Israeli assassination.

Any attempt to hit Hamas leadership will most probably lead to the death of those hostages. On the other hand, a commando “Entebbe style” raid to release the remaining hostages appears unlikely, as a few of those attempts have already been attempted and failed, due to extremely challenging intelligence and operational conditions in Gaza.