Iran may turn to international terror

The war between Israel and Iran is an event the two adversaries have been preparing for decades. So far, Iranian retaliation efforts for Israel's strikes on key military and nuclear targets have been focused on attacking Israel with massive ballistic missile and suicide drones.

Israel’s multilayered air-defense system has been able to intercept most of these projectiles and while the civilian casualties have been kept to a minimum, though no air defense system could offer full protection. Nevertheless, there is little doubt that the Israeli aerial and intelligence superiority allow it to hit Iran with incomparable efficiency.

Tehran’s disadvantage is further highlighted, as the “Axis of Resistance” it headed has practically ceased to exist. During the past 18 months critical elements of this axis were severely hit, as Israel degraded both Hezbollah’s and Hamas’s military capabilities and the regime in Syria collapsed all together. This axis was a critical component in Iran’s national security doctrine and was designed for massive retaliation in case of an Israeli strike on Iran’s soil.

With limited options to respond militarily against Israel, it is highly likely that Iran will initiate a global terror campaign against Israeli and Jewish targets. This is a well-established modus operandi by Tehran, which was used after previous Israeli attacks against Iran as part of the decades-long shadow war the two countries have been engaged in.

The most recent example of Iranian use of terrorism was exposed in 2023 as Cyprus announced it had foiled an Iranian terror attack on Israeli and Jewish targets. A year earlier another major Iranian terror plot against Israeli tourists was foiled in Turkey by the local security forces. Both attempts were part of an Iranian campaign to avenge the assassination of Iran's nuclear program head, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and a mysterious explosion in the Nataz nuclear facility, both attributed to Israel.