The Iran-Israel war: what you need to know

Early on Friday, the Israel Defense Forces and Mossad executed a coordinated attack that, within a few hours, severely damaged the systems and weaponry of the regime in Tehran.

The operation attacked Iran's three major nuclear facilities, killing dozens of senior military officers, as well as nuclear scientists and experts. Israeli forces also destroyed the last of the Iranian air defence systems, took out major oil and gas depots, and struck a large number of missile launchers. Iran says at least 224 people have been killed.

Iran responded with waves of missile and drone attacks on civilian targets in Israel. At least 13 people have been killed, Ben Gurion airport is closed, and Israelis are spending hours in shelters.

Missiles continue to rain down in both directions.

The idea of Israel bombing Iran has circulated for two decades, peaking around 2012 under Netanyahu and then-Defence Minister Ehud Barak. At that time, Israel was blocked by the Obama administration, which eventually signed a nuclear deal with Iran.

This time, Netanyahu acted alone, while the Trump administration was still negotiating with Iran over an attempted deal to reduce its nuclear threat.

Israel may have obtained secret intelligence suggesting Iran had begun the weaponisation phase of its nuclear program. Eran Etzion — former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council — told Al-Monitor that this could explain why the heads of Israel’s security agencies supported the operation, despite long-standing doubts about the feasibility of fully destroying Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

The timing was also the result of an exceptional operational opportunity. The corridor was open, partly due to the suppression of Iranian air defences back in October, and the Russians not replenishing Iranian stockpiles and systems afterward. Hezbollah had been defeated by the IDF, its leadership decapitated, most of its missile force destroyed, and Assad’s regime weakened. This created favourable conditions for Israel to deploy a large force to strike deep within Iran.

Iran has spent decades developing its nuclear program, viewing it as a source of national pride and sovereignty. It insists the program is solely for peaceful energy purposes and plans to build more nuclear power plants to meet domestic energy needs and free up oil for export.

Iran has made significant progress in producing highly enriched uranium, suitable for weapons. An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report released to member states late last month stated that Iran’s stock of 60% enriched uranium had reached 408 kilograms — enough, if further enriched, for nine nuclear weapons, based on IAEA calculations.

The IAEA has long accused Iran of violating its non-proliferation obligations. On Thursday — for the first time in nearly two decades — the IAEA board passed a resolution formally declaring Iran in breach of those obligations.

Israeli strikes were directed at three key nuclear sites — Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow — as well as at a large number of top nuclear scientists.

Satellite imagery and expert analysis suggest the strikes had a major impact in Natanz, Iran's largest uranium enrichment facility, and Isfahan. Natanz, the centrepiece of Iran’s nuclear program, was engulfed in flames on Friday, according to geolocated social media footage and Iranian state TV coverage.

But a decisive factor will be the Fordow uranium enrichment site. "The entire operation… really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordow," Israeli Ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, told Fox News on Friday.

“If Fordow remains operational, Israel’s attacks may barely slow Iran’s path to the bomb,” wrote James M. Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is far more difficult to target. Buried deep in the mountains near Qom in northern Iran, the site houses advanced centrifuges capable of enriching uranium to high levels of purity. Israel would require exceptional tactical ingenuity or US assistance to destroy Fordow, which is embedded in a mountain and heavily fortified.

If the facility remains intact, a nuclear program Israel is determined to "eliminate" could actually accelerate, Ravid notes. That’s why the Israeli government is hoping the Trump administration will ultimately join the operation.

Israel reportedly targeted the site in its Friday attacks, but the IAEA stated it was not impacted, and the IDF has not claimed significant damage. Iranian state media outlet Press TV reported that Iranian air defences shot down an Israeli drone near the plant. Subsequent satellite imagery appears to support this assessment.

Coordination between Israel and the US on the eve of the attack was tighter than it initially seemed. President Trump did express concern about an Israeli strike on Iran just hours before the bombing began – but in hindsight, this appears to have been an attempt to create distance in case the operation failed.

Trump later praised the attack on ABC News. "I think it's been excellent. We gave them a chance and they didn't take it. They got hit hard, very hard. They got hit about as hard as you're going to get hit. And there's more to come, a lot more."

After a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, Trump said the war "needs to end". He wrote on Truth Social: "President Putin called this morning to very nicely wish me a Happy Birthday, but more importantly, to talk about Iran, a country he knows very well. He feels, as do I, this war in Israel-Iran should end, to which I explained, his war should also end.

“I directly put to the Iranian foreign minister: 'We are saying to you, exercise restraint, return to diplomacy and dialogue,' because continuing to escalate this has consequences for all peoples of the region. That is a position that so many countries in the world are putting not only to the Iranians, but also to the Israelis."

An Israeli official told Axios that Trump had suggested he would join the operation if necessary, in a prior conversation with Netanyahu. But a White House official denied this, telling Axios that Trump had said the opposite. The US currently has no intention of direct involvement.

Meanwhile, Trump reportedly vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to two US officials speaking to Reuters. The officials, who requested anonymity, said Israeli officials had informed Washington they had the opportunity, but Trump rejected the proposal.

A collapse of the Iranian regime would be the dream outcome for both Netanyahu and Trump, and it is possible — particularly given Israel’s removal of senior military leaders since the attacks began on Friday, including the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian armed forces, argues Ian Parmeter in The Conversation.

Anti-regime demonstrations over the years — most recently the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022 — have shown how unpopular the regime is. That said, it has survived numerous challenges since 1979, including war with Iraq in the 1980s and heavy international sanctions. Iran has developed highly efficient security systems to maintain control. One key uncertainty is whether Israeli attacks on civilian targets could trigger a “rally round the flag” effect among Iranians.

Netanyahu has claimed that remaining senior regime figures are preparing to flee the country — but provided no evidence.

While European leaders have strongly criticised Israel over its war in Gaza, several countries have issued surprisingly broad support for the strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. On this issue, Europe and Israel have long been aligned, in part because many European governments draw a sharp distinction between the Iranian threat and the Palestinian conflict.

This distinction is also shaped by public opinion: Arab-Muslim communities in Europe often criticise Israel, while Iranian diaspora communities tend to support it. European unease over Iran’s growing alliance with Russia has also influenced their stance, Ynetnews reports.

The question is how long European support will last. For now, it continues, largely because Israel is seen as having the upper hand — but that could change. If the conflict drags on and graphic images of Iranian civilian casualties emerge, public opinion may shift. European governments are also unlikely to tolerate a prolonged campaign and would prefer a return to diplomacy.

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Israel has a right to defend itself but avoided commenting on whether the surprise bombardment of Iran was a breach of international law. Speaking on ABC Insiders, Wong said she had spoken with both the Iranian foreign minister and the Israeli ambassador, urging restraint.

“We urge restraint because whatever people's views about what has occurred to date, what happens tomorrow matters to all peoples in the region,” she said.

“I directly put to the Iranian foreign minister: 'We are saying to you, exercise restraint, return to diplomacy and dialogue,' because continuing to escalate this has consequences for all peoples of the region. That is a position that so many countries in the world are putting not only to the Iranians, but also to the Israelis."

Wong warned the situation was “perilous” and “very risky”, and expressed concern for Australians and their families in both Israel and Iran. The Department of Foreign Affairs has set up a 24-hour consular emergency service.

She also noted the cancellation of planned talks on progressing a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. “We’re so far from that right now,” she said. “There is a lot more work to be done.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese advised Australians to follow official travel advice and avoid Israel or the occupied territories. “Australia does not play a role in this military conflict. I wouldn’t expect there to be a request for Australia to be militarily involved, but we will continue to support Australian citizens,” he said from Seattle, en route to a G7 summit in Canada.

Israeli ambassador Amir Maimon, a frequent critic of Australian policy on the Middle East, responded to Wong’s comments with a statement shortly after she spoke. Without naming her, he dismissed the emphasis on diplomacy as naïve. “Iran isn’t hiding its intent – it declares it. And it’s building the weapons to fulfil it,” Maimon said. “Through its pursuit of nuclear arms, Iran has turned this into an asymmetric conflict – between a democracy seeking to defend itself and a regime bent on destruction. Yet some still urge diplomacy, as if words can stop warheads.”

Israel’s war with Iran is costing the country around 2.75 billion shekels — over 1 billion AUD — per day in direct military expenses alone, according to former senior defence official Brig. Gen. (res.) Re’em Aminach. Aminach, a former financial adviser to the IDF Chief of Staff, told Ynetnews that the initial two days of fighting amounted to approximately 1 billion AUD, split evenly between offensive and defensive operations. This estimate excludes civilian property damage and broader economic impacts. “These are direct costs only,” said Aminach, who also led the Defence Ministry’s Budget Department and the IDF’s economic division. “The indirect costs — including the impact on GDP — cannot be measured at this stage.”

READ MORE

Why Netanyahu decided to strike Iran now (New Yorker)

Netanyahu is counting on Trump to finish what Israel started in Iran (Amir Tibon, Haaretz)

‘We fight or we die’: How days of frantic diplomacy and dire warnings culminated with Israel’s attack on Iran (CNN)

Israel stunned Iran, but needs US to shape a clear exit strategy (Amos Harel, Haaretz)  

Euphoria, assassinations, secret drones: but will Israel's war actually stop Iran going nuclear?  ( Yossi Melman, Haaretz)

Tel Aviv vs. Tehran: this is Netanyahu's war, but he won't decide its outcome (Aluf Benn, Haaretz)

 From shock to shame: Israeli strikes expose Iran's crumbling defenses, internal divides (Paywall. Al-Monitor)

Iran-Israel conflict risks constraining US diplomacy, prompting nuclear concealment (Paywall. Al-Monitor)

How war between Iran and Israel could escalate—and drag In the United States (Paywall, Foreign Affairs)