For Israel, the success of Jordan’s regime is a vital national security interest

Israel's longest land border, stretching some 300 kilometres, is its eastern one with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. For the past seven months, while the IDF has been actively fighting Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north, the Jordanian eastern border has kept quiet. 

Not only that, but Jordan's air force took part in the interception of hundreds of Iranian UAVs which Tehran launched towards Israel in mid-April. The Jordanian security forces also foiled attempts by radicals supported by Iran to use the Kingdom’s territory to attack Israel.

The unfolding events since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel have put Jordan in a very sensitive situation, as the Kingdom finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

The Jordanian regime is facing growing public pressure, led by the large Palestinian population in the country and Islamist political parties, to demonstrate solidarity with the people of Gaza and to join the fight against Israel. At the same, the Jordanian government's actions reflect the Kingdom's interest in maintaining stability in the region and its ongoing security cooperation with Israel, which is traditionally kept out of public sight.

Jordan’s longstanding positive relations with Israel started decades before the formal signing of the 1994 peace accord between the two countries. The connection between the Hashemite family and Zionist leaders goes back as far as 1919, even before both Israel and Jordan were established, and forms part of the Western-oriented policies the Kingdom has followed since its early days.

Those policies have created inherent tension with Palestinian nationalists over the years and led to a complex bitter history between the two parties.

In 1951, a Palestinian nationalist assassinated King Abdullah I, the founding father of the Kingdom; in 1970 the Jordanian army carried out a massive military campaign known as “Black September” against Palestinian militants, led by the PLO, who challenged the Kingdom's sovereignty; and in 1999, Jordan outlawed Hamas and exiled its leadership due to the risk it posed to its stability.

Historically, Jordan has been successful in navigating the conflicting positions of its Western-oriented regime and the pro-Palestinian sentiments of its people. The fact that a large percentage of Jordan's population are Palestinian or come from a Palestinian background forces the regime to constantly consider the public response to its policies.

The events over the past months have presented Jordan with the greatest challenge it has faced in years. The rising number of Palestinian casualties in Gaza, and the humanitarian crises which intensified inflammatory coverage by Arab media outlets and social networks, steered massive protests in the Kingdom. Those sentiments were further inflamed by Islamist political forces wishing to destabilise and topple the Jordanian regime, and by Iran and the Shia militias it supports in both neighbouring Syria and Iraq.

Iran's attempts to smuggle arms to support Islamist terrorism against the regime; Iraqi Shia militia's public declaration of their intention to arm 12,000 militants inside Jordan so they can join the fight against Israel; and Tehran's use of Jordan’s air space to attack Israel should all be seen as an Iranian coordinated effort to exploit the tense domestic arena and destabilise the Kingdom.

Jordan does not stand silent and, in an unusual move, publicly pointed out Iran's malicious actions and presented the Iranian ambassador in Aman with an official condemnation of its actions. At the same time, Jordan tried to calm domestic unrest by reinforcing the Kingdom's role in delivering humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.

Hundreds of trucks have been delivering aid from Jordan to Gaza, with King Abdullah II himself even participating in Jordan's air force aid dropping operations, which received intense coverage by local media.

As there is no end in sight to the war in Gaza, both the domestic and external pressures on Jordan are likely to continue, and King Abdullah II will have to keep delicately navigating between contradictions. Finding a balance is critical for his Kingdom's survival. This includes demonstrating empathy and solidarity to the suffering of Palestinians while preventing internal instability, and at the same time, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the US and Israel to foil Iran’s attempts to increase its influence in the region.

From Israel's perspective, King Abdullah's success is a vital national security interest.

Lack of security control on the other side of Israel's longest border, not to mention the rise of an Islamist Iranian-affiliated regime in Jordan, will force Israel to reconsider the redeployment of its already strained IDF forces on another front.

It so happens that Israel’s and Jordan’s national security challenges are closely connected. Only jointly coordinated efforts could bring the two countries together to overcome the current crises they each face.

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