Hamas chief is dead: What changes?

In the past two days, two major enemies of Israel have been killed: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, while visiting Tehran, and top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, in a targeted strike on Beirut.

Shukr and Haniyeh are the two most senior Hezbollah and Hamas figures killed since Hamas launched the war with the October 7 massacre, joined a day later by Hezbollah. Both assassinations are major victories for Israel, removing terror leaders who were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Israeli civilians.

Haniyeh is the more significant scalp, although Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for his death. He was Hamas’ political chief and a key instigator of the Second Intifada, which claimed 700 Israeli lives. He was not directly responsible for October 7 – the invasion was led by Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar  – but he has been a key player in ceasefire and hostage release talks.

His fanaticism was illustrated by his response to the deaths of three of his sons and several grandchildren in an Israeli attack on Gaza in April. He told Al-Jazeera  “I thank God for this honour.”

Shukr was Hezbollah’s most senior military commander and a right-hand man to terror leader Hassan Nasrallah. His death was Israel’s response to a Hezbollah attack on which killed 12 children last week.

In the best case scenario, Haniyeh’s death could allow Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to claim victory and agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. But Sinwar is still at large, there are other reasons neither side  wants a ceasefire, and analysts agree the assassinations have made successful hostage negotiations less likely.