Heading into another unwinnable war with Lebanon

Israel appears to be moving closer than ever to all out war with Hezbollah, analysts say, despite fears it will be much more challenging than the Gaza war that the IDF has thus far been unable to win.

This week's mass explosions of Hezbollah devices, statements by political and military leaders, and troop movements all increase the likelihood that Israel will soon be at war with the Shiite fundamentalist group that has been shelling northern Israel in support of Hamas since October 8.

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the explosions of pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah members, which killed 26 and wounded more than 3250 people on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

But speaking on Wednesday, Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant praised the "very impressive" work of Israel’s army and security agencies, and declared Israel had entered a "new phase of the war". The events of this week appear to have postponed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's attempt to remove Gallant.

The explosions decisively shattered the general pattern of months of calculated tit-for-tat cross border exchanges that also caused tens of thousands to flee on the Lebanese side.

With statements this week repeatedly stressing the crucial need for the return home of the northerners and the cabinet’s designating that as a war aim, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the military are raising expectations of a major army push into southern Lebanon. It is becoming hard to see how they could back down without a major loss of their credibility, or what remains of it after the October 7 disaster and the inability to finish off Hamas in Israel’s longest war.

Indeed it seems that much of the motivation for escalating with Hezbollah may be to douse memories of those failures. But this is a big gamble with a big potential price. “It would be very painful,” says veteran strategic analyst Yossi Alpher. “Hezbollah has weapons that can strike at central Israel, a much greater capability than Hamas. Israel can’t intercept all of them. This is something to avoid if avoidable. But with an extremist enemy whose goal is to destroy us it’s not always possible to avoid.”

Some analysts see Netanyahu leading Israel into disaster. “Israel can’t win,” says Bar Ilan University emeritus professor of political science Menachem Klein, who correctly predicted the IDF would face a Hamas insurgency in Gaza and be unable to quell it. “It will be a huge waste of human life on both sides.”

The costs of the Gaza quagmire were painfully apparent on Tuesday when four soldiers were killed by an explosion in Rafah, the southern city that was supposed to be pacified months ago by a major army push months ago.

Hezbollah has said it will stop its shelling if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. But Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting until “complete victory” over Hamas is achieved, with his critics accusing him of prolonging a futile war and sacrificing the lives of hostages to placate coalition partners and stave off an inquiry into the failures of October 7. Netanyahu says it is Hamas leader Yihya Sinwar who is preventing the hostage release.

“Netanyahu thinks a war with Hezbollah will bring him more public support and that the mainstream parties will unite behind him.” Klein said

But he said those favouring a Lebanon invasion have no answer to the likely ability of Hezbollah to still strike the upper Galilee from launch sites in central Lebanon. “People expect the government to restore normal life. This can be done only through a political agreement and ending the war in Gaza. Netanyahu is not ready for this. He’s close to an order for a military operation but it won’t solve the problem.”

However, Uzi Rabi, director of the Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University told The Jewish Independent that military action and establishing an IDF “security zone” inside Lebanon is the only way to enable the return of the evacuees.

“October 7 showed that Israel should count on itself and not pie in the sky agreements that are worth nothing. We can’t count on our neighbors, some of whom say out loud that they want to annihilate Israel,” he said.

In its public comments, at least, the US has advised that military means will not be able to restore the Israeli border communities. But Israel may be assuming that in keeping with the general pattern established in Gaza, the US will end up supporting its plans. On Wednesday, Army Radio reported that the IDF’s 91^st division was being redeployed after service in Gaza to the northern border in a further show of determination, with defense minister Gallant stating that the focus is shifting to the north.

Halevi, speaking to officers at northern command headquarters, outlined a strategy of continuing to step up military pressure on Hezbollah without talking about its possible responses. It remained unclear how much the group was being set back by the explosions.

”There are additional capabilities which have not yet been activated,” he said. ”We’ve seen some of the things and it looks like good preparedness and we are pushing the plans ahead. The rule is that each time we work on a specific stage, the next two stages are ready to proceed forward strongly. In every phase the price extracted from Hezbollah must be high.”

Salim Brake, a political science lecturer at Israel’s Open University, questioned whether the device explosions shaking Lebanon would have any value in bringing back the evacuees.

“This operation shows very good intelligence but it doesn’t solve the problem of returning the residents in the north.” If anything, he said Hezbollah will have more motivation to attack.

Brake advocates reaching a ceasefire with Hamas that secures the release of the hostages and raises the possibility of working out arrangements with Hezbollah. “If it stops its fire we can have negotiations. If we reach an agreement, that’s excellent and if not, we will have international legitimacy to take military action.”

In Brake’s view, Netanyahu is navigating Israel towards a “catastrophe” by not working towards a Gaza ceasefire and “rolling into a war” in the north. “There are regional dangers. Hezbollah is a strong arm of Iran and Iran will not want to give it up,” he said.

“If Netanyahu can drag the Americans into this, he will,” Brake added.

But Rabi says the device explosions will be for naught unless Israel seizes the moment to attack. He believes the timing is right in many respects. “There is a need to shift forces and prepare but south Lebanon is empty of population, winter is in the offing. Hezbollah is panicky and Lebanon is crushed after what happened. Therefore for me A, B and C make you go for the D-day.”

READ MORE

What we know about the Hezbollah pager explosions (BBC)

Cyberattack or supply chain breach? What could have caused the thousands of pager blasts in Lebanon (Haaretz)

RELATED ANALYSIS

Will the pager operation deter Hezbollah and Iran, and is Israel prepared for war if not? (David Horovitz, Times of Israel)
The spectacular gambit had apparently been intended to serve as the opening salvo of a major ground offensive. All sides are now weighing their options, including full-scale conflict.

Flamboyant cyber operations like the 'pagers attack' in Lebanon are no substitute for strategy (Zvi Bar’el, Haaretz)
As Israel knows well, a mass casualty attack creates national insecurity, which in turn can create immense public pressure on decision-makers. But if the goal of the strike was to produce such an effect in Lebanon and weaken Hezbollah, that may turn out to be a far-reaching ambition.

Full-scale war with Hezbollah is closer now than ever before  (Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post)
Right now is the closest Israel has been to a full war with Hezbollah since October 7. Sources have told the Jerusalem Post that this time a major operation could be very real.

Pager blasts expose Hezbollah’s vulnerability, but change remains unlikely (Ron Ben-Yishai, Ynet)
The action attributed to Israel in Lebanon sets fear in Hezbollah and Iran's hearts, but won't be enough to return northern Israelis to their homes.

Pager blasts humiliated Hezbollah, but they won't win any wars for Israel (Amos Harel, Haaretz)
Hezbollah's weakness was exposed by the simultaneous attack on thousands of pagers and its leaders were humiliated – allegedly by Israel. Such things do not usually go unanswered in the Middle East.

The sound of pagers exploding in Beirut reaches the White House (Ben Samuels, Haaretz)  
The incident, which Hezbollah attributed to Israel in a statement, flies directly in the face of ongoing intensive efforts from the Biden administration to preserve diplomatic efforts over military escalation.