Heading into another unwinnable war with Lebanon

Israel appears to be moving closer than ever to all out war with Hezbollah, analysts say, despite fears it will be much more challenging than the Gaza war that the IDF has thus far been unable to win.

This week's mass explosions of Hezbollah devices, statements by political and military leaders, and troop movements all increase the likelihood that Israel will soon be at war with the Shiite fundamentalist group that has been shelling northern Israel in support of Hamas since October 8.

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the explosions of pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah members, which killed 26 and wounded more than 3250 people on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

But speaking on Wednesday, Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant praised the "very impressive" work of Israel’s army and security agencies, and declared Israel had entered a "new phase of the war". The events of this week appear to have postponed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's attempt to remove Gallant.

The explosions decisively shattered the general pattern of months of calculated tit-for-tat cross border exchanges that also caused tens of thousands to flee on the Lebanese side.

With statements this week repeatedly stressing the crucial need for the return home of the northerners and the cabinet’s designating that as a war aim, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the military are raising expectations of a major army push into southern Lebanon. It is becoming hard to see how they could back down without a major loss of their credibility, or what remains of it after the October 7 disaster and the inability to finish off Hamas in Israel’s longest war.