Lebanon ceasefire deal expected soon

Israel’s cabinet is meeting on Tuesday to evaluate a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah. If Israel’s cabinet approves the deal, US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce a ceasefire by Wednesday.

Lebanon’s deputy speaker of parliament Elias Bou Saab said on Monday that there are “no serious obstacles” left to beginning the implementation of the US-proposed truce.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby also said, “We’re close”, but added “nothing is done until everything is done”.

The deal

The proposal is for a 60-day truce, which would be the timeline for Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon, giving time for the Lebanese army to gradually deploy to southern Lebanon, effectively shutting down any opportunity for Hezbollah forces to re-establish themselves.

The truce includes a “side document” that enables Israel to attack any Hezbollah operatives who venture south of the Litani River, as well as attack any attempts by Hezbollah to re-arm itself.

Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said Israel would maintain the ability to strike southern Lebanon under the agreement, a clause Lebanon has previously refused to agree to.

Another sticking point on who would monitor the ceasefire has been resolved in the last 24 hours by agreeing to set up a five-country committee, including France, chaired by the United States.

Israel will not immediately call on residents of the north to return to their homes and will continue paying stipends to those who are evacuated. A decision to call on residents to return to their homes will be made based on the reality on the ground at a later stage.

The timing

The deal’s timing was due to a number of factors, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post. The first was concern over a unilateral decision in the United Nations Security Council that would force Israel to cease its actions in southern Lebanon.

The second was that it enabled Israel to re-evaluate the situation in two months, right after the new administration takes over in the US.

The third is that the deal may apply pressure on Hamas, as it left Hamas alone in its conflict with Israel. This could lead to a breakthrough in negotiations over a deal to bring back Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza.

The damage

Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel the day after Hamas’ surprise attack into Israel on October 7, 2023 ignited the war in Gaza. Israel launched its response on September 27, 2024 and a ground invasion on October 1, 2024.

The war in the north has resulted in:

READ MORE

Israel said to agree in principle to Lebanon ceasefire offer, though some issues remain (Times of Israel)

Ceasefire with Hezbollah: What Israel’s 60-day pause entails – explainer (Jerusalem Post)

Biden, Macron set to announce Israel-Hezbollah truce: Lebanese sources (SMH, paywall)

The death toll in Lebanon crosses 3,000 in the 13-month Israel-Hezbollah war, Health Ministry says (AP)

ANALYSIS

Hezbollah’s terror army will rebuild—Israel’s test lies in first breach (Ron Ben-Yishai, Ynet)
As Lebanon cease-fire nears, questions linger: Will Hezbollah bypass restrictions, and can the enforcement mechanism deliver? IDF braces for border test that could turn the deal into a real solution—or a repeat of failed Resolution 1701, which was intended to resolve the 2006 Lebanon War but never contained Hezbollah.