Lebanon ceasefire ‘within grasp’: why not Gaza?

Senior Israeli and US officials say there has been significant progress in the past few days in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hezbollah, after a number of major hurdles were cleared.

Hezbollah has stopped insisting on its position throughout the past year linking a ceasefire in Lebanon to a ceasefire in Gaza, and is prepared to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon.

The key unresolved issue is the Israeli demand for freedom of action in Lebanon against Hezbollah's attempts to rearm, which Hezbollah rejects.

The Biden administration believes the chances of a ceasefire in Lebanon before the end of the president's term in two months are much higher than the chances of a ceasefire in Gaza.

Why is a ceasefire in Lebanon possible after a couple of months when Gaza has dragged on for more than a year? Haaretz’s diplomatic correspondent Amir Tibon notes it clearly isn’t a question of security.  Despite Israel’s recent strikes against it, Hezbollah remains more of a threat to Israel than Hamas.

“No one in Israel believes that a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah will mean that the powerful terror group is no longer a threat to Israeli citizens,” writes Tibon.

Nor is it a question of incentive: a ceasefire in Gaza would deliver the hostages, the biggest issue for most Israelis. 

Analysts have identified many factors that make the negotiations with Hezbollah smoother than attempts to get a ceasefire in Gaza. Many of them come down to the will of the Israeli government.

The Lebanese ceasefire remains under negotiation. On the face of it, "only" two key issues remain in dispute between Israel and Lebanon: Israel's insistence on freedom of action should Hezbollah violate the agreement, and the establishment and composition of an international supervisory committee.

However, according to Lebanese reports at least, there are more than a dozen additional matters at play. Some are symbolic, aimed at preserving Lebanon's sovereignty and national dignity, while others are practical and will require resolution and mutual agreement before the deal can be finalised.

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Why Is Netanyahu prepared to accept a cease-fire with Hezbollah but not Hamas? (Amir Tibon, Haaretz)

A ceasefire may be imminent in Israel’s war in Lebanon — why not Gaza? (Dan Perry, Forward)

Israel, Hezbollah closer to deal but issue of IDF freedom of action in Lebanon remains (Haaretz)

Hamas leaders no longer in Doha but office not permanently closed, Qatar says (BBC)

Israel will soon learn that no one can replace Qatar as a mediator with Hamas(Alon Pinkas, Haaretz)

Any agreement between Israel and Lebanon will require a silent partner: Syria's Bashar Assad (Zvi Bar’el, Haaretz)