Sinwar’s death is an opportunity to end the war

Israel has announced that it has succeeded in killing Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 massacre.

Celebrating the deaths of enemies is a controversial issue in Jewish culture but there is no question this death is a relief for Israelis and all enemies of terror.

It should be a relief for Palestinians too. US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin described Sinwar's death as a major achievement that presents an extraordinary opportunity to end the "terrible war" between Israel and Hamas.

"Sinwar's death also provides an extraordinary opportunity to achieve a lasting ceasefire, end this terrible war, allow Israelis to return safely to their homes in southern Israel, rush in far more humanitarian assistance to ease the misery in Gaza, and bring relief and hope to the Palestinians who have endured so much under Hamas's oppressive rule," Austin said in a statement.

Israel has shown little inclination during this war to take the advice of its strongest (and increasingly only) ally but we hope it will do so now.

Since the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began in the days following Hamas's brutal October 7 invasion of southern Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear that his aim was to destroy Hamas, protecting Israelis from the terror of the Iranian proxy.

After Sinwar's death, Netanyahu declared that aim satisfied: "Hamas will never rule Gaza again,” he said.

But he also made it clear that he did not consider the war over. “Today, evil has suffered a heavy blow, but the task before us is not yet complete.”

Netanyahu did not outline what he considers would end the war, but the obvious outstanding issue is the hostages.

Around 100 of the 256 Israeli hostages taken on October 7 remain in Gaza, although only about half are believed to be still alive. The Hostages Families Forum Headquarters published a statement commending the forces for Sinwar's death and calling on the government and leaders to take the opportunity to make a deal to release the hostages.

A deal would almost certainly involve not just a ceasefire but an exchange of prisoners, with Hamas likely to demand the release of thousands of Palestinians convicted of terrorist offences in exchange for 50 civilians and soldiers alive and the same number of corpses.

A poll in June showed 60% of Israelis support a ceasefire with a hostage deal. But Sinwar's own story indicates the risks of such a move. Sinwar spent 22 years in an Israeli military prison for terrorist offences, before being one of more than 1000 prisoners released in exchange for kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011.

He went on to plan and execute the October 7 massacre. The release of Sinwar and his fellow terrorists in exchange for Shalit may well have cost Israel the more than 1200 lives lost on October 7, 2023.

Sinwar's death certainly presents an opportunity for a deal. It gives Israel a strong position from which to negotiate, with a clear line to draw, and a way of stopping the war without feeling it has failed in its mission.

And it makes the Palestinians more likely to compromise: Sinwar was believed to be the force applying a hard line to the negotiations and Hamas will be negotiating from a much weaker position without him.

There is no question Gaza has been devastated by this war. The Palestinians claim more than 42,000 deaths, most of the population has been displaced and mass food shortages have been reported.

The international community, which has been appalled by the Palestinian civilian suffering, has lost patience with Israel and the sense that the war is justified has long faded.

The stakes have been raised by the increasing involvement of Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah has been firing rockets on northern Israel since October 8 and has made it clear there will be no ceasefire until the war in Gaza ends.

Israel’s response in recent weeks has considerably weakened Hezbollah, but at a high cost for Lebanese civilians, an echo of what has happened in Gaza.

The involvement of Iran, through direct missile attacks in April and again on October 1, increases the chances of a reasonable war and has prompted US President Joe Biden to take a stronger line in favour of ceasefire.  

Whether Israel is prepared to risk releasing thousands of terrorists in exchange for the hostages or whether it believes the cost is too high, the time is past for a ceasefire.

Israel has made significant gains in decimating Hamas and decapitating Hezbollah. There is no “absolute victory”, which Netanyahu had declared his aim, but there was never going to be. Israel is much more secure now than it was on October 6, and the cost of continuing the war is too high.

Absolute security will only come when there is peace and a just resolution for both sides. We are a long way from that day, but Sinwar’s death was a step in the right direction.