Sinwar’s death is an opportunity to end the war

Israel has announced that it has succeeded in killing Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 massacre.

Celebrating the deaths of enemies is a controversial issue in Jewish culture but there is no question this death is a relief for Israelis and all enemies of terror.

It should be a relief for Palestinians too. US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin described Sinwar's death as a major achievement that presents an extraordinary opportunity to end the "terrible war" between Israel and Hamas.

"Sinwar's death also provides an extraordinary opportunity to achieve a lasting ceasefire, end this terrible war, allow Israelis to return safely to their homes in southern Israel, rush in far more humanitarian assistance to ease the misery in Gaza, and bring relief and hope to the Palestinians who have endured so much under Hamas's oppressive rule," Austin said in a statement.

Israel has shown little inclination during this war to take the advice of its strongest (and increasingly only) ally but we hope it will do so now.

Since the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began in the days following Hamas's brutal October 7 invasion of southern Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear that his aim was to destroy Hamas, protecting Israelis from the terror of the Iranian proxy.

After Sinwar's death, Netanyahu declared that aim satisfied: "Hamas will never rule Gaza again,” he said.

But he also made it clear that he did not consider the war over. “Today, evil has suffered a heavy blow, but the task before us is not yet complete.”

Netanyahu did not outline what he considers would end the war, but the obvious outstanding issue is the hostages.

Around 100 of the 256 Israeli hostages taken on October 7 remain in Gaza, although only about half are believed to be still alive. The Hostages Families Forum Headquarters published a statement commending the forces for Sinwar's death and calling on the government and leaders to take the opportunity to make a deal to release the hostages.

A deal would almost certainly involve not just a ceasefire but an exchange of prisoners, with Hamas likely to demand the release of thousands of Palestinians convicted of terrorist offences in exchange for 50 civilians and soldiers alive and the same number of corpses.

A poll in June showed 60% of Israelis support a ceasefire with a hostage deal. But Sinwar's own story indicates the risks of such a move. Sinwar spent 22 years in an Israeli military prison for terrorist offences, before being one of more than 1000 prisoners released in exchange for kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011.

He went on to plan and execute the October 7 massacre. The release of Sinwar and his fellow terrorists in exchange for Shalit may well have cost Israel the more than 1200 lives lost on October 7, 2023.

Sinwar's death certainly presents an opportunity for a deal. It gives Israel a strong position from which to negotiate, with a clear line to draw, and a way of stopping the war without feeling it has failed in its mission.

And it makes the Palestinians more likely to compromise: Sinwar was believed to be the force applying a hard line to the negotiations and Hamas will be negotiating from a much weaker position without him.

There is no question Gaza has been devastated by this war. The Palestinians claim more than 42,000 deaths, most of the population has been displaced and mass food shortages have been reported.

The international community, which has been appalled by the Palestinian civilian suffering, has lost patience with Israel and the sense that the war is justified has long faded.

The stakes have been raised by the increasing involvement of Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah has been firing rockets on northern Israel since October 8 and has made it clear there will be no ceasefire until the war in Gaza ends.

Israel’s response in recent weeks has considerably weakened Hezbollah, but at a high cost for Lebanese civilians, an echo of what has happened in Gaza.

The involvement of Iran, through direct missile attacks in April and again on October 1, increases the chances of a regional war and has prompted US President Joe Biden to take a stronger line in favour of ceasefire.  

Whether Israel is prepared to risk releasing thousands of terrorists in exchange for the hostages or whether it believes the cost is too high, the time is past for a ceasefire.

Israel has made significant gains in decimating Hamas and decapitating Hezbollah. There is no “absolute victory”, which Netanyahu had declared his aim, but there was never going to be. Israel is much more secure now than it was on October 6, and the cost of continuing the war is too high.

Absolute security will only come when there is peace and a just resolution for both sides. We are a long way from that day, but Sinwar’s death was a step in the right direction.  

RELATED ANALYSIS

Netanyahu's victory lap over Sinwar ignores the fate of Israel's hostages (Amir Tibon, Haaretz)
Netanyahu took a victory lap after Sinwar's death, arguing that it was his insistence on entering Rafah that made it possible to eventually find the Hamas leader. Under that logic, it was this same decision that paved the way for the death of the Israeli hostages killed since May.

Sinwar’s death is a chance for Israel to declare victory and pivot in Gaza (Dan Perry, The Forward)
Netanyahu should give amnesty to those holding hostages, take the lead in rebuilding Gaza and form a national unity government.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death is a defining moment, but it will not end the war (Ian Parmeter, The Conversation)
The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, one of the masterminds behind the group’s horrific October 7 2023 attack on southern Israel, is no doubt a consequential moment in Israel’s year-long war against Hamas.

What the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could mean for the Middle East – expert Q&A (Scott Lucas, The Conversation)
Sinwar’s death follows a campaign of assassination of top Hamas leaders by Israel since the latest round of hostilities began after the Hamas attack on Israel of October 7 2023. It’s an important moment in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Assassination attempt on Netanyahu could shape Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran (Amos Harel, Haaretz)
Saturday's drone strike targeting Netanyahu's house highlights Iran's and Hezbollah's sophisticated intelligence-gathering capabilities. It's hard to predict how Sinwar's killing will affect a cease-fire deal to bring Israeli hostages home.

RELATED NEWS

Mourning 'martyr' Sinwar vs. celebrating his death: Arab media splits over Hamas leader's legacy (Haaretz)
The Hamas leader is being hailed for going down fighting, triggering comparisons with Arab 'resistance' heroes such as Libyan anti-colonialist fighter Omar al-Mukhtar, who famously said, 'My life will be longer than my executors'.' In contrast, Saudi pundits are celebrating Sinwar's demise.

Who will lead Hamas after killing of Yahya Sinwar? (BBC)
Two Hamas officials told the BBC discussions to choose a successor for the group's leader Yahya Sinwar, whose killing was confirmed on Thursday, will begin very soon.

After Sinwar’s killing, Israelis call on Netanyahu to seize the moment and strike a deal with Hamas (CNN)
With the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, many Israelis are sensing a window of opportunity to bring back the hostages still held in Gaza – and they are making their voices heard.

Biden tells Netanyahu it's time to end Gaza war after Sinwar's elimination (Axios)
President Biden said after his call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday that it's time to "move on" and end the war in Gaza after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Gazans divided after Hamas chief Sinwar's death, hoping for leader who'll end suffering (Haaretz)
Hamas' opponents blame Sinwar for inviting Gaza's catastrophe, while his supporters say the video of his death has only reinforced his reputation as a 'hero.' From her tent camp, one mother says, 'It's hard to say whether people are happy or saddened by Sinwar's death'.

Palestinians pressing UN Security Council to call for immediate ceasefire in Gaza (JPost)
The UN says the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is horrifying, and calls for an end to the war.