Trump’s victory gives Netanyahu a green light

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s push to curtail the democratic aspects of Israeli governance is poised to shift into higher gear after he was boosted last week by sacking his dissenting defence minister without major backlash and by Donald Trump’s electoral victory.

“I do not see that there are forces to stop this process of Netanyahu. I’m very pessimistic,” said Professor Salim Brake, a political scientist at the Open University of Israel. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is looking forward to Trump’s help in regional affairs, particularly achieving a peace deal with Saudi Arabia and supporting heightened pro-settler moves in the occupied West Bank.

The two gains from last week “make Netanyahu think he is in the sky,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu aide and now a commentator on Channel 12. “From his point of view, he has the best partners in Washington and full access to the White House.”

Because the ouster of defence minister Yoav Gallant and his replacement by Netanyahu ally Israel Katz touched off smaller than expected public protests, analysts interviewed by The Jewish Independent predict there is a strong likelihood Netanyahu will be emboldened to fire those whom they describe as the two main obstacles to his further concentrating power: Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara.

“These are the two guardians of what remains of democracy and if they are dismissed, the situation will become much more severe,” Brake said. Already, the rule of law appears to be slipping, with rights groups pointing to what they say are politically motivated detentions, unjustified force against demonstrators and continued efforts by Justice Minister Yariv Levin to undermine the judiciary.

Police claim they stick to the law in an unpoliticised way, while the government maintains that the existing judicial structure leads to judges overstepping their powers at the expense of the Knesset and will of the majority.

Brake predicts the coalition, the most far-right in Israeli history, will now overturn semi-constitutional Basic Laws that protect citizens’ rights and move ahead with a bill effectively restricting the eligibility of Arab candidates to run for the Knesset.

Meanwhile, in a potentially unfavourable development for Netanyahu, Israel’s Kan public broadcaster reported that his chief of staff, Tzahi Braverman, extorted an IDF officer to allegedly alter records of wartime meetings. According to the report, Braverman threatened the officer with a sensitive video.

Former Likud Justice Minister Dan Meridor, a critic of Netanyahu, told TJI it was unclear if that scandal and an alleged leak of classified documents involving a Netanyahu spokesman, Eli Feldstein, would impact on the prime minister.

Netanyahu’s office said the spokesman did not have access to classified information and Braverman fervently denied any wrongdoing while his lawyer announced he would sue the Kan journalists involved.

Salim Brake, the political scientist, said he had expected Gallant's dismissal to have a larger impact and shut down businesses like the protests that forced Netanyahu a year and a half ago to reverse a previous decision to fire Gallant. But last week's protests were said by the media to be lethargic and Netanyahu easily weathered them.

Many would-be protesters are fighting at the frontlines, otherwise distracted by the war or simply worn out after one of the most difficult years in Israeli history.

“If the lack of reaction is any indicator, the coalition will feel emboldened to take more antidemocratic steps on the assumption the public is in disarray,” said veteran political and strategic analyst Yossi Alpher.

Nor is Trump, likely to activate his own anti-democratic drive in the US, expected to voice any criticism.

Alpher added that the political opposition “looks pathetic” and unable to inspire anyone. He noted that at the same time he fired Gallant, Netanyahu had strengthened his coalition to 67 out of the 120 Knesset seats by bringing in Gideon Saar, whom he appointed as foreign minister, with three other members of his New Hope party.

“There is no viable threat to bring down this government. The opposition is powerless, it is not speaking in one voice or influential abroad. Netanyahu can celebrate the fact that he has a weak opposition,” Alpher said.

Moreover, he now has someone perceived as a yes-man in the key defence portfolio. Gallant was faulted by a small minority of the Israeli public for the high Palestinian civilian death toll in the Gaza war but was respected by many for seeming to place the wellbeing of the country above his personal interests.

Netanyahu, by contrast, has often been criticised for putting personal or coalition interests at the fore and not seeking a Gaza ceasefire that would bring home the hostages and end the war. He blames Hamas for thwarting efforts to free the hostages.

Gallant had opposed Netanyahu’s readiness to push ahead legislation that would grant draft exemptions to the ultra-Orthodox, especially at a time when the army needs thousands of additional soldiers and reservists serving long months are under strain. Netanyahu wants the exemptions in order to maintain his partnership with ultra-Orthodox parties.

Gallant said after resigning that the IDF has achieved all of its objectives in Gaza and that it is time to end the war and bring home the hostages in a ceasefire deal, going against Netanyahu’s position that “ultimate victory” needs to be achieved.

Meridor, the former justice minister, told TJI that the dismissal of Gallant was also a signal to other members of Likud that “if you resist me, you are out”.

He added that Netanyahu has emerged considerably stronger after last week. “He’s widened his majority in the Knesset and that’s where the decisions are made.”

Meridor says the only way to stop Netanyahu accumulating more power is if demonstrations grow to the point where they make some legislators rethink their support for the PM. But he admits that so far there is no sign of this.

Bushinsky says that the only way Netanyahu will now be stopped is through his own possible misjudgments and mistakes. He believes that is a real possibility.

Bushinsky says with Trump’s backing Netanyahu believes he can attain a Saudi-Israeli peace deal that will boost his standing at low cost. “He thinks the Trump administration shares the same principles in the Middle East and can deliver a deal with Saudi Arabia with fewer concessions [to the Palestinians] than the Democrats would have demanded.”

But Bushinsky adds that “Netanyahu makes mistakes when he is overconfident” which he thinks is the case now. By going too far in meeting ultraorthodox demands on the draft issue, he could end up sparking challenges within his own party and from the far-right Religious Zionism party, he says.

Similarly, if reduced political pressure causes him not to pursue a hostage deal as part of what he has described as “ultimate victory” in Gaza, this will backfire on him, Bushinsky says. “It will be remembered forever as a tragic failure of the government. If he ends up not returning the hostages, it will end up as a terrible stain on his career and he will not be re-elected.”

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