Normalisation, Palestine, stability: Saudi Arabia’s agenda

Every year since 2019, one of the world’s biggest music festivals has taken place in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. It hosts top international and local artists and attracts hundreds of thousands of people. When the festival first started, I knew that one day I, as an Israeli, would go there. I love music festivals, I love people dancing, but more than anything, I dream of visiting Saudi Arabia—a country I’ve researched for over two decades. It has fascinated me since the moment we first “met”. I didn’t plan to dedicate my academic (and maybe even personal) life to it, but I couldn’t help it. It’s more thrilling than any mystery novel. It keeps changing and evolving, with one drama after another.

Back in 2019, the idea of dancing to music in the Saudi capital seemed like a fantasy. But a year later, the “Abraham Accords” were signed between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—and the path forward looked promising. On September 20, 2023, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave an interview to American television and described the dramatic progress in Saudi-Israeli relations toward normalization: “Every day we get closer.”

That was all I needed to hear. I told my family that in December, I’d be at the music festival in Riyadh, and hoped they’d manage without me.

But just few weeks later, on October 7 2023, Hamas launched a brutal terror attack on Israeli civilians. Normalization had its moment, but now it’s just waiting quietly in the background.

From the first stages of the war, Saudi Arabia called for a ceasefire. This demand wasn’t out of sympathy for Hamas’ attack—quite the opposite—but due to the real concern that the war would escalate and spread, with disastrous effects on the already fragile stability of the Middle East. As the war continued and the situation in Gaza worsened, Saudi criticism of Israel and its leadership grew harsher. Israel was accused of violating international law and committing war crimes. Netanyahu was portrayed as manipulating the ongoing war for political gain.

The Saudi monarchy didn’t stop at strong statements. It led and promoted a series of international diplomatic efforts with other nations to end the conflict and advance the idea of a Palestinian state. As part of this, Saudi Arabia hosted two important Arab-Islamic summits during the war and worked within the UN to promote the creation of a Palestinian state.

These efforts will come to a head this month. From June 17–20, Saudi Arabia and France will co-chair an international conference on the issue at the UN headquarters in New York. The conference will be made up of different working groups, each focusing on a different topic. At this stage, it is still unclear what the conference will actually contribute, beyond the fact that it is taking place.

The weakness of the conference is already clear, even before it begins. Much of the discussion has focused on what kind of statements will come out of it. At first, it was expected that many countries, especially the UK and France, would use it to express support for a Palestinian state. But that expectation has faded. French officials have reassured their Israeli counterparts that France will not recognise a Palestinian state during the conference.

Unless there are last-minute changes, the conference is expected to focus on achieving a long-term ceasefire, rebuilding and restoring Gaza, returning the hostages, disarming Gaza, and promoting reforms in the Palestinian Authority.

Israel is likely to boycott the conference, while at the same time approving the construction of 22 new settlements in the West Bank.

In this context, it’s worth noting that Israel recently refused to allow the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan to enter Ramallah for a meeting with Palestinian Authority, President Mahmoud Abbas. Israel was worried the meeting would push forward the idea of a Palestinian state, which the current government clearly rejects.

Saudi Arabia's push for a two-state solution is not new. The kingdom has always expressed loyalty to the Palestinian cause. However, under Mohammed bin Salman’s leadership, it has also criticized the Palestinian Authority and its leader, Mahmoud Abbas. In 2018, in a closed meeting with American Jewish figures, bin Salman accused the Palestinian leadership of missing multiple opportunities for peace. It was even reported that he said they should accept American peace proposals or stop complaining.

Given this, Saudi Arabia’s proactive stance on the Palestinian issue during the war may raise questions, especially since it’s distancing Riyadh from Jerusalem. But a deeper look shows consistency in Saudi foreign policy. That policy has always been based on a quest for regional stability and security as a precondition for advancing Saudi interests, and on strengthening its role as a regional mediator.

Saudi Arabia long ago understood that regional turmoil threatens friendly regimes and fuels radical movements that could also affect it. Despite its military strength, it cannot face external threats alone and depends on others for its security. That’s why it seeks to resolve regional conflicts and deepen its role as a negotiator.

In this sense, the Gaza war is Saudi Arabia’s worst nightmare for several reasons:

For these reasons and more, Saudi Arabia wants the war to end as soon as possible, but that’s not enough. Without a long-term solution to the Palestinian issue, Gaza will continue producing more rounds of conflict, severely damaging regional stability and Saudi Arabia’s economic development plans. The monarchy invests in diplomatic efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict not only out of concern for the Palestinians but, perhaps more importantly, out of concern for itself. As strong as it may be, Saudi Arabia does not exist behind high walls. It lives in a volatile region that directly impacts its domestic and foreign actions.

At the signing of the Abraham Accords, the Emirati Foreign Minister said: “I stand here today to extend a hand of peace and receive a hand of peace.” Saudi Arabia now feels that unlike in 2020, no Israeli official has offered a hand of peace since the war began.

Quite the opposite. Ministers and deputy ministers have called for genocide (e.g., dropping a nuclear bomb on Gaza), occupying Gaza, and establishing Jewish settlements there. Israel is seen as promoting an imperialist policy under the guise of security, while its real goals are political and religious.

The Saudi-French initiative is not important in and of itself. It presents no new demands from Israel and is unlikely to produce a fresh, workable solution that hasn’t been thought of over the past decades. Its importance lies in the message it sends: Saudi Arabia’s patience has run out. From its perspective, Israel is no longer the victim, it is the aggressor. Israel has every right to defend its borders and citizens, so long as that’s its actual goal.

Saudi Arabia refuses to cooperate with Israeli government efforts to whitewash political actions disguised as security. Saudi Arabia extends a hand for peace, but peace is judged not by words, but by actions. And at the moment, from Saudi Arabia’s perspective, Israel is capable of neither.