Published: 1 November 2022
Last updated: 5 March 2024
Netanyahu has his nose just in front. But if he does win, his legacy will be forever stained by creating a racist powerhouse that resembles antisemites of the past.
The final polls conducted by Israel’s three main television stations in advance of today’s elections were suspiciously but perhaps prudently identical. The polls differed on details but not on the bottom line: Dead heat, hung parliament, continued paralysis, escalating rhetoric, growing polarisation and then back to the ballot boxes, “cos here we go again”.
Sixty seats for the “Only Bibi” bloc, comprised of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and its similar-thinking satellites, the networks uniformly announced, and 60 for the “Anyone but Bibi” camp, an ad-hoc coalition of disparate Jewish and Arab parties united for the sole purpose of blocking the former prime minister from returning to power.
The pollsters’ findings mirror widespread public expectations. “What was will be again, there’s nothing new under the sun,” as Ecclesiastes noted stoically. But most Israelis would concur with the maxim wrongly attributed to Albert Einstein: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
Israelis don’t see any discernable reason to believe they will be any more successful in their fifth attempt to break the political deadlock than they were in their previous four efforts. Voter participation may not decline but voter engagement is spent, which is why the so-called election campaign preceding the vote existed in name only. Most voters, it seems, had tuned out and switched off.
There were no mass rallies and hardly any "meet and greet" tours. Those that took place, as Netanyahu discovered to his embarrassment, were notable mainly for the absence of participants.
There were no mass rallies, few home meetings and hardly any “meet and greet” tours. Those that took place, as Netanyahu repeatedly discovered to his great embarrassment, were notable mainly for the absence of participants.
No less than 40 parties are registered to participate in the elections, but “To Bibi or Not to Bibi,” is the only real item on the election agenda, in this as in the four previous times Israelis have gone to the polls since April 2019. If they reject Netanyahu’s quest for a majority once again, it could be his final hurrah, senior Likud sources say, pledging to drum up the courage they have hitherto lacked to confront him.
It may sound like an empty threat, but don’t forget that any reasonable Likud leader that ousts Netanyahu could set up a strong centre-Right coalition with an unassailable parliamentary majority overnight.
If Netanyahu achieves his coveted majority, on the other hand, the course of Israeli history will change, perhaps dramatically. Even if he has the theoretical option of reaching out to Benny Gantz or Yair Lapid in order to set up a more moderate government, Netanyahu won’t even consider it.
He hasn’t taken on the entire legal system and Israeli establishment after his criminal indictment in 2019 just to capitulate when the Promised Land is in sight and the Get Out of Jail Free card is finally within reach.
Netanyahu has made repeated pledges in recent days to appoint the leaders of the surging far-Right Religious Zionism (Jewish Strength) party, including former Kahane disciple and convicted terror supporter Itamar Ben-Gvir, as ministers in his cabinet.
Netanyahu let a racist genie out of the bottle and he will be long gone before anyone succeeds in putting it back.
The former prime minister knows full well that setting up such an extreme-Right government would immediately inflame internal strife, damage Israel’s international standing and drive a dangerous wedge between Israel and World Jewry, particularly in the largely liberal US Jewish community. In his eyes and those of his close family and supporters, it’s a price worth paying.
Netanyahu’s main rival, current prime minister Lapid, would have a harder time setting up a coalition even if he does garner a larger majority, because his so-called “bloc” includes Arab parties who won’t join the club even if it would accept them - which it won’t.
The conventional wisdom holds that one way or another, the elections will be close, probably too close to call, and it could take days to figure out the results. Like generals, however, pollsters sometimes analyse their findings based on the trends of the previous round of voting rather than dealing with changed realities of the next.
And while a squeaker election is still the safest bet, a big surprise isn’t completely out of the question. There are enough new factors in play that, if the stars align, could combine into perfect storm that would yield a shocking and unassailable, clear-cut victory for one side or the other.
In fact, there are enough differences between these elections and previous rounds to undermine the popular perception that Israel is doing the same thing over and over again. This time Netanyahu is competing as leader of the opposition, for example, rather than prime minister, and the difference, as the former prime minister knows all too well, is huge.
Lapid, in fact, has used the prestige, budgets and news-generating capabilities of the PM’s office to steadily build up an image as a statesman and longer-term prime minister. In recent weeks, his Yesh Atid party has surged in the polls and, if current trends continue, could overtake Likud as the largest party of all. Netanyahu isn’t standing alone. This time, he faces a serious contender.
On the other hand, Lapid’s popularity may actually be undermining his own cause. The additional support for his party usually comes at the expense of his junior partner, especially Labour and Meretz on the centre-Left, bringing them perilously close to the 3.25% threshold that would keep them out of parliament and hand Netanyahu a tremendous victory.
In fact, following a split among Arab parties, there are now no less than four parties on the anti-Bibi side that are at risk. If any one of them falls short of the threshold, the elections are over and Netanyahu is the winner. Up until a few weeks ago, polls indicated that only 40% of Israel’s Arabs intend to vote, but the figure has since climbed to over 50%, and if the trend continues, Arab parties will be in and Netanyahu, in all likelihood, will be out.
Lapid has used the prestige, budgets and news-generating capabilities of the PM’s office to steadily build up an image as a statesman and longer-term prime minister.
The Right, on the other hand, is unusually well organised and compact this time around. Their only worries, which pale in comparison with their rivals, are the handful of their camp’s votes that might be wasted on a small party led by former justice minister Ayelet Shaked. In fact, the emergence of a strong and unified far-Right party like Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Strength, masterminded and orchestrated by Netanyahu himself, may prove the most significant and ominous of all.
In his quest to make sure that every right-wing vote counts, Netanyahu has fostered and legitimised the once ostracised Ben-Gvir along with his previously-shunned views on Arabs and Jews.
Three decades ago, the entire Likud leadership walked out of the Knesset plenum when the late Rabbi Meir Kahane rose to speak. His party, disqualified from running by the Supreme Court for its odious racism, is now reborn, its leader is a much-sought media star and its views are gaining acceptance in hitherto respectable Israeli salons.
Netanyahu let a racist genie out of the bottle and he will be long gone before anyone succeeds in putting it back. Divisiveness, incitement and personal corruption are sure to stain Netanyahu’s legacy in the future. But creating a racist powerhouse that resembles notorious antisemites of the past will surely leave the blackest mark of all, even if he wins today’s vote.
Photo: Benjamin Netanyahu, surrounded by security and his supporters, visits at Hatikva Market in Tel Aviv on October 28 (AP/Ariel Schalit)
