Trump’s Middle East tour leaves Israel in the cold

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looked ahead to Donald Trump’s presidency with a mixture of anxiety and hope. But even in his worst nightmares he never imagined that the US president—whom Israel had billed as its greatest friend in the White House—would embark on a multi-stop Middle East trip that skipped Israel, pursued a deal with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, negotiated directly with Iran and Hamas, and lift sanctions on Syria.

The problem for Netanyahu is that he currently has little leverage in Washington. “There’s nothing Netanyahu has that Trump wants, needs or can give him, as opposed to, say, the Saudis, the Qataris or the Emiratis,” former diplomat Alon Pinkas told CNN. Unlike Israel, the wealthy Gulf states have pledged trillions of dollars in US investments and announce major weapons purchases—victories Trump can tout for American manufacturing.

For years, Arab Middle Eastern countries held the view that “the road to Washington runs through Jerusalem”—that showing goodwill to Israel would earn them US favour. Nathan Brown, a political scientist at George Washington University, says, “What Israel offered above all was essentially an entrée into American society.” But with Trump’s Middle East trip omitting Israel, smaller Gulf states “don’t need to work through Israel to get to the Trump administration,” Brown said to Haaretz.

Despite years of being perhaps Trump’s most vocal international supporter, Netanyahu now has few cards left to play. Under Democratic administrations he leaned on his Republican backers to pressure the White House. Yet Netanyahu has never openly criticised Trump, and he’s unlikely to start now.