Trump’s Middle East tour leaves Israel in the cold

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looked ahead to Donald Trump’s presidency with a mixture of anxiety and hope. But even in his worst nightmares he never imagined that the US president—whom Israel had billed as its greatest friend in the White House—would embark on a multi-stop Middle East trip that skipped Israel, pursued a deal with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, negotiated directly with Iran and Hamas, and lift sanctions on Syria.

The problem for Netanyahu is that he currently has little leverage in Washington. “There’s nothing Netanyahu has that Trump wants, needs or can give him, as opposed to, say, the Saudis, the Qataris or the Emiratis,” former diplomat Alon Pinkas told CNN. Unlike Israel, the wealthy Gulf states have pledged trillions of dollars in US investments and announce major weapons purchases—victories Trump can tout for American manufacturing.

For years, Arab Middle Eastern countries held the view that “the road to Washington runs through Jerusalem”—that showing goodwill to Israel would earn them US favour. Nathan Brown, a political scientist at George Washington University, says, “What Israel offered above all was essentially an entrée into American society.” But with Trump’s Middle East trip omitting Israel, smaller Gulf states “don’t need to work through Israel to get to the Trump administration,” Brown said to Haaretz.

Despite years of being perhaps Trump’s most vocal international supporter, Netanyahu now has few cards left to play. Under Democratic administrations he leaned on his Republican backers to pressure the White House. Yet Netanyahu has never openly criticised Trump, and he’s unlikely to start now.

“He’s got nothing right now,” Pinkas said.

One of the clearest signs of Israel’s waning influence came with Trump’s abrupt reversal on Syria—an issue Netanyahu had recently urged him to approach with caution.

On Tuesday, the day Trump landed in the Middle East, he announced that the US would end sanctions on Syria—precisely the move Netanyahu had urged him to avoid just weeks earlier. On Wednesday, President Trump met with his Syrian counterpart, Ahmed al-Sharaa, signalling a dramatic shift in US policy. Trump described al-Sharaa after their meeting as “a young, attractive guy. Tough guy. Strong past. Very strong past. Fighter.” He added, “He’s got a real shot at holding it together. I spoke with President Erdoğan, who is very friendly with him. He feels he’s got a shot of doing a good job. It’s a torn-up country.”

The White House said al-Sharaa told Trump that Syria could serve as “a critical link in facilitating trade between East and West.” He reportedly invited American companies to invest in Syrian oil and gas and reaffirmed his commitment to the 1974 disengagement agreement delineating the ceasefire line between Syria and Israel in the Golan Heights. The two leaders met for about 30 minutes in Riyadh, alongside Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan joining by phone. According to the White House, Trump urged al-Sharaa to sign the Abraham Accords with Israel, deport foreign and Palestinian terrorists, cooperate with the US to prevent an Islamic State resurgence, and assume responsibility for militants’ detention centres in northeast Syria.

While some welcomed al-Sharaa’s new posture, Israelis remained highly suspicious. “We must not forget that a jihadist does not change his spots easily,” a senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “We have to separate the declarations from the intentions and actions on the ground. We must take into account that the contacts and peace-mongering are a trick designed to give the other side time to organise and beef up its forces.”

“Israel could then wake up one morning to find Sunni militias on the fence in the Golan Heights and a Turkish presence in southern Syria,” the source added. “That’s why we respect the Syrian side, but we also suspect it.”

The glitter of US-Saudi economic deals drives much of the current diplomacy. Pre-October 7, the envisaged US-Saudi-Israel triangle promised Saudi normalisation for a pathway to Palestinian statehood, a civilian nuclear programme and a defence pact. That breakthrough, analysts hoped, would usher in an era of unprecedented regional stability.

But with one leg of that triangle—Israel—now sidelined, the calculus has shifted Dahlia Scheindlin argues in Haaretz . “Israel is not even on the itinerary,” notes several Arab experts, signalling that Riyadh “doesn’t need Israel to access the Trump administration.” And if normalisation no longer unlocks US incentives, “why normalise?” the Gulf states ask. At the same time, Israel’s actions in Syria—its bombing campaign and occupation beyond the Golan Heights—only harden Arab scepticism  .

Netanyahu’s dilemma is stark: he wants normalisation but has undercut it with his policies. “I’ve never seen a government that wants something so badly, yet does everything to not get it,” says Alghashian. As long as Israel continues its campaigns in Gaza and Syria, Arab states will see no reason to normalise—a reality Netanyahu can neither ignore nor easily reverse.

Arab public opinion now regards Israel as more toxic than ever, according to analysts. In Saudi Arabia, leadership fears domestic backlash if the kingdom moves too quickly towards Israel writes Dahlia Scheindlin in Haaretz. Schieindlin quotes David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who argues, “Netanyahu appears more interested in continuing the war in Gaza than in normalisation with Saudi Arabia.” He adds that Netanyahu’s government wouldn’t even consider the words “Palestinian” and “state” in the same sentence—let alone the same paragraph.

“What leverage does Israel have?” asks Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi foreign policy researcher. “If I were an Israeli leader looking for points of leverage, I wouldn’t find any.” Nathan Brown concurs: “Politically, there’s not a whole lot of appeal in Arab normalisation right now, especially if the US is not including Israel in all of its diplomacy.”

READ MORE

Trump's snubs: what Netanyahu's declining global prowess means for his fortunes at home (Haaretz, Dahlia Scheindlin)

Trump’s Middle East trip leaves Netanyahu watching from the sidelines again (CNN)

Arab commentators react to Israeli-American hostage release from Hamas captivity (Haaretz)

Trump to Syria's Sharaa: Recognize Israel, expel foreign fighters (Al—Monitor, Paywall)

Syrians welcome US sanctions relief, though likely won't lead to economic revival (Ynetnews)