Election 2024 looks likely —but don’t bet against Bibi

The first law of Israeli politics of the past decades is “Don’t bet against Bibi”. The political magician will always pull another rabbit out of the hat and make another empty promise to keep his base happy.

 Six months after the greatest disaster the State of Israel has ever known, this statement still holds up. There is no date for new elections, and the Knesset went into the spring break this week, during which it is difficult to initiate political processes.

However, the emerging political crisis over exempting ultra-Orthodox from army service and the new waves of protests by families of the hostages has made elections in 2024 seem much more possible.

Minister Benny Gantz, the most likely alternative prime minister, proposed on Wednesday that elections should be held in September, saying "an agreed election date will leave us time to continue the security efforts, let the public know we'll renew the trust between us soon, and it will prevent the rift in the nation."

The ruling Likud party responded in a statement that  "the government will continue until achieving all the war's goals".

Politics in a time of war

In the first weeks after October 7, the political consensus was that, as in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, after the initial shock and return of the tens of thousands of reservists, a wave of protests and anger would spread and bring down the government – and that would be the end of Netanyahu's political career.