Published: 23 September 2022
Last updated: 5 March 2024
Nationalist, religious and conservative elements that view liberal democracy as an existential danger have coalesced around a charismatic leader. Sound familiar?
Imagine an Israel ruled by a radical, reactionary, theocratic, ultra-nationalist coalition; an Israel that celebrates Jewish superiority, doubles down on occupation, dismantles the Palestinian Authority, provokes Israeli Arabs, represses the LGBTQ+ community, boycotts non-Orthodox Jews, criminalises political dissent, purges the judiciary and civil service, becomes a South Africa-style pariah state and sparks a historic schism in world Jewry.
Contrary to what most Israelis currently assume, this is no far-fetched, futuristic nightmare scenario concocted by sinister enemies or cynical politicians. It is a clear and present danger, a possible if not probable outcome of the November general election, if Benjamin Netanyahu finally succeeds in garnering an absolute 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset for his religious-right wing bloc. According to the polls, the former prime minister is but a hair’s breadth away.
From Netanyahu’s point of view, any coalition that refuses to legislate his way out of criminal proceedings is A worthless segue before the next early elections.
Theoretically, such an iron-clad majority bloc could be used as a springboard for Netanyahu to reach out to willing centrist parties, such as Defence Minister Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party, in order to set up a relatively moderate, broader-based centre-right government, just as he did after garnering 61 seats or more in the 2009, 2013 and 2015 elections.
That, however, was before Netanyahu was investigated, indicted and put on trial on charges of bribery and corruption, before he realised that his public onslaught on judges and prosecutors hadn’t achieved desired results, before he understood that only a tight-clad coalition of parties that disdain democracy and the rule of law can give him what he wants most: a “Get Out of Jail Free” card. In exchange, of course, for acceding to inflammatory, theocratic and ultra-nationalist demands.
Netanyahu’s failure to secure a coalition that suits his legal needs is the sole reason Israel has gone to the polls five times in the past three years. His goal isn’t simply to stay in office, because if that were the case, Netanyahu would not have brought down his own 2020 “national unity” government, 11 months before he was due to hand over power to Gantz.
From Netanyahu’s point of view, any coalition that refuses to legislate his way out of criminal proceedings is worthless, a time-wasting segue before the next early elections.
So why are these elections different than the four previous campaigns in which Netanyahu failed? While there are still 40 days before Israelis head to the polls, several factors may work this time in the former prime minister’s favour:
An expected depression in Arab voter participation, internal bickering in the centre-left – most prominently between its two leaders, Gantz and Prime Minister Yair Lapid – and last but by no means least, Netanyahu’s spectacular success in forging a merger between an ultra-Right settler party, anti-LGBTQ+ religious fanatics and the “Jewish Power” Party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, thus ensuring that no right-wing votes will be wasted on parties that fail to pass the 3.25% threshold.
In this regard, it is a mistake to cling to outdated perceptions of Israel’s complex proportional voting system, its myriad parties of all shapes and stripes and the convoluted coalition talks needed before a winner is declared.
The raging public debate about Netanyahu has effectively split the country into opposing camps, the so-called “Only Bibi” camp vs. the “Anyone but Bibi” camp. The former entails acquiescence to Netanyahu’s intent to upend the law and the courts; the latter camp is enlisted in their defence.
Thus, in essence, Israel has become a two-party political system, closely following in the footsteps of its great ally, the US: In both countries, nationalist, religious and conservative elements that view liberal democracy as an existential danger have coalesced around a charismatic leader, their enthusiasm growing the more he has denigrated, clashed with and was ultimately challenged by democratic institutions, especially and most pertinently, the rule of law.
In both countries, the divisions surrounding their leadership have cut far wider and deeper than politics: they are ethnic, social and cultural as well.
Voters for Netanyahu’s Likud and its satellites include more than 90% of Jewish settlers and religious Israelis, as well as a hefty majority of so-called North African Jews. Anti-Netanyahu voters are largely secular or Ashkenazi Jews but also include Israeli Arab parties, which have a separate agenda and are now splintered into four separate parties, some of which might fall short of the Knesset threshold, and represent a disappointed electorate that could very well refuse to vote at all.
The very inclusion of the Arab parties in the so-called “Anyone but Bibi” bloc is, in many ways, an optical illusion. Except for the Islamic Joint Arab List, which supported Lapid’s outgoing government, the other three – Hadash, Ta’al and Balad – won’t join a Lapid-led coalition, and as Lapid has indicated, the feeling is mutual.
Israelis are resigned to no change, no matter who the next PM is, but will be shocked senseless if it turns out they actually voted for what would amount to regime change.
Some analysts believe that ultra-Orthodox parties, once convinced that Netanyahu has lost, will reach out to Lapid, but conventional wisdom holds that Lapid would simply carry on as interim prime minister until a new date for elections its set.
Indeed, because most people assume that a continuation of the current debilitating status quo is inevitable, the election campaign has been unusually muted, even lethargic, and will only get under way seriously after the upcoming Jewish holidays, leaving less than two weeks for politicians to sway the small minority of undecided voters who will decide the elections.
Israelis don’t expect great surprises: They are resigned to no change, no matter who the next prime minister may be, but will be shocked senseless if it turns out they actually voted for what would amount to regime change, precipitating both internal strife and international isolation. In retrospect, of course, the writing on the wall will seem crystal clear.
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