Gaza ceasefire: everything you need to know

After 15 months, the war between Hamas and Israel could finally be over. A three-phased ceasefire deal has been reached and announced during talks in Doha involving Israel, Hamas, the US, Qatar and Egypt.

Qatar's Prime Minister stated at a press conference on Wednesday night that the ceasefire will take effect on Sunday, with Qatar continuing to work alongside Egypt and the US to ensure the implementation of the agreement.

“It’s a very good afternoon, because at long last I can announce a ceasefire and a hostage deal has been reached between Israel and Hamas after more than 15 months of conflict,” US President Joe Biden said in a televised statement.

The complex agreement outlines an initial six-week ceasefire, including the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages taken by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

First stage (42 days commence at 12.15pm Sunday)
Hamas will release 33 hostages, including female civilians and soldiers, children, and civilians over 50. Three hostages will be released on Sunday, with the remaining exchanges taking place over six weeks. Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier.

During this stage, Israeli troops will begin pulling out of populated areas in Gaza but remain along the Gaza-Egypt border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor. Displaced Palestinians will begin returning home as more aid enters the strip.

On the 16th day of the ceasefire, detailed negotiations for the second and third phases will commence. The draft agreement specifies that a deal on the second phase must be finalised by the end of the first. Hamas had sought written guarantees for a prolonged ceasefire but has accepted verbal guarantees from the United States, Egypt and Qatar.

Second stage
In the second stage, Israel and Hamas will declare “sustainable calm”, and Hamas will free the remaining 33 male hostages (soldiers and civilians) in exchange for about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. During this stage, displaced people in the south of Gaza will be allowed to return to the north.

Third stage
The third and final stage will focus on the reconstruction of Gaza, which could take years. The bodies of deceased Israeli hostages will be exchanged for the bodies of deceased Palestinian fighters, and border crossings for movement in and out of Gaza will be reopened.

Hamas and its allies still hold 94 of the 251 hostages taken from Israel, including at least 34 who are deceased. During the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, 33 hostages will be released, beginning with female civilian hostages and the Bibas children, Ariel and Kfir.

Israel believes that most of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase are alive, although the bodies of deceased captives may also be among them. The 33 will include women, children, those over 50, all living female soldiers and two Americans held in Gaza – Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel-Chen. Amid hopes for their return, families have raised valid concerns that phase two may not be implemented.

In one word: Trump. A few weeks ago, US President-elect Donald Trump threatened “all hell to pay” if the hostages weren’t released by his January 20 inauguration. The threat was directed at both Hamas and Israel.

On Monday, Haaretz reported that Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steven Witkoff, who joined the negotiations in Qatar, flew to Israel and “forced Israel to accept a plan that Netanyahu had repeatedly rejected over the past half year”. The Times of Israel quoted Arab officials who claimed, “Trump’s envoy swayed Netanyahu more in one meeting than Biden did all year”.

Netanyahu will need to approve the agreement in the security cabinet and the full government, and he is expected to secure a majority in both. However, the far-right parties may resign from the coalition, leaving Netanyahu with a minority government.

This would not directly affect the ceasefire deal but could lead to the government’s collapse in the near future. Losing the Knesset majority has been the main political obstacle to the deal for Netanyahu. On Tuesday, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir confirmed this, stating that he had repeatedly blocked a hostage-ceasefire deal over the past year.

In a post on X, he called on Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to join him in threatening Netanyahu with their resignation if the deal proceeds. However, with Netanyahu expanding the coalition by bringing in Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party, Ben-Gvir alone will not be able to topple the government. He would need Smotrich’s Religious Zionist party to join him for such an effort to succeed.

This is yet to be determined. The mediators are trying to present an alternative to Hamas rule for "the day after". While Hamas and PIJ have agreed to the establishment of a committee of Gazan technocrats to run the enclave under the control of the Palestinian Authority, it is Chairman Mahmoud Abbas who refuses. Fatah has stated that they will not cooperate with such a committee, claiming it is Hamas' way of returning to power by placing figures aligned with it in key positions.

In the first phase, aid entry to Gaza is set to increase to hundreds of trucks per day, carrying food, medicine, supplies, and fuel to address the humanitarian crisis.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) says it is prepared to help implement the ceasefire and hostage deal. “We are ready to facilitate any release operation as agreed by the parties so that hostages and detainees can return home,” ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric said in a statement on Wednesday. However, implementation may face challenges. Even before the war, Israel restricted the entry of certain equipment, arguing it could be repurposed for military use by Hamas.

An Israeli official stated that arrangements for aid distribution and cleanup are still being finalised, with the aim of preventing Hamas from playing any role. Additionally, Israel’s government remains committed to its plan to ban UNRWA from operating and to sever all ties with the agency. UNRWA is the primary distributor of aid in Gaza and provides education, health care, and other basic services to millions of Palestinian refugees across the region, including in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

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Watch: Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal announced (BBC)

After 15 months of war, Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire-hostage release deal (The Times of Israel)

33 hostages released in 6 weeks, women and children first: These are the details of the deal (Ynet)

A look at the terms — and tensions — in the Israel-Hamas draft ceasefire deal (AP News)

Why is Netanyahu poised to OK a ceasefire that’s favorable to Hamas? One word: Trump (The Forward)

Israel will have to pay a heavy but inevitable price for hostage-release deal (Haaretz)

Trump's mideast envoy forced Netanyahu to accept a Gaza plan he repeatedly rejected (Haaretz)

Arab officials: Trump envoy swayed Netanyahu more in one meeting than Biden did all year (The Times of Israel)