How much did Gaza affect the US election – and what does it mean for Australia?

Donald Trump is back, and his victory over Kamala Harris and the Democrats deserves much analysis.

Depending on who you ask, Trump won because of the economy, because his opponent was a woman, because the Democrats are too progressive, or even too conservative.

But another popular take has been put forward – the Democrats lost critical votes over America’s support for Israel in its ongoing wars which started with the Hamas attacks on October 7.

For simplicity, I’ll use ‘Gaza’ as shorthand for these wars, including battles with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.

To what extent did Gaza impact the Democrats’ loss last week, and what role might it play in Australia’s federal election due by May next year?

I don’t believe that Gaza is the reason the Democrats lost. Had the result been close enough to pinpoint the loss of a key demographic in certain states, we could have considered discontent over Gaza in either direction as a decisive factor, but Harris suffered losses across the country, in most demographics and in all corners of the country. It seems clear that cost of living pressures in a climate of persistently high inflation were more decisive factors.

Research from Blueprint indicated the top three reasons swing voters chose Trump were concerns about high inflation, illegal immigration and perceptions that Harris was “focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class.”

By contrast, perceptions Harris was “too pro-Palestine” ranked as the 20^th reason out of 25 for swing voters to choose Trump – and perceptions Harris was "too pro-Israel” ranked as 23^rd.

But Gaza still hurt the Democrats, costing Harris votes on both sides of the debate, but also in the distraction it provided from the core domestic concerns that swing voters cared about.

The Middle East has long played a central role in American politics. The US-Israel alliance is a cornerstone of America’s foreign policy and its geopolitical influence. It has been culturally and ideologically ingrained into both major parties – although in recent years has been a source of growing division within the Democrats’ ranks.

A recent poll indicates a majority of Americans retain a favourable view of Israel, while another indicates around two-thirds believe America should continue to support Israel in the war. This context is important, because flawed analysis of votes the Democrats have lost for their support for Israel, such as by Peter Beinart recently, mostly ignore the votes that would be lost if the Democrats were not supportive of Israel.

Even as the Republicans under Trump have become more isolationist and less interested in traditional alliances, support for Israel has stood as a constant across most of the Republican Party – even by some who have espoused antisemitic rhetoric themselves.

Trump’s support for Israel was a pronounced feature of his first administration, moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and formally recognising it as Israel’s capital, tearing up the Iran nuclear deal, and brokering the Abraham Accords.

But as it was Joe Biden who was in power on October 7, it was his administration’s turn to support its ally when Israel struck back against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. And while his administration has been increasingly critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his handling of aspects of the war, President Biden has remained resolute in his support for Israel’s right to self-defence, and he has refused calls to cut off military support for Israel’s war.

Israel-Palestine is increasingly becoming a wedge issue for centre-left parties across the Western world – usually caught between a left that urges them to walk away from any support for Israel, and a right that accuses them of lacking sufficient support for the region’s only liberal democracy. This is a problem for the Democrats just as for Australian and British Labor.

Some Muslim voters may have shifted away from Harris over Gaza, but evidence is mixed at this stage.

A Fox News exit poll, the only I’m aware of to poll all 50 states and break down Muslim voters, estimated 63% of Muslim voters picked Harris over 38% for Trump. Note that while Fox is editorially known to have a pro-Republican bias, its polls are considered reliable and accurate by experts and even the Democrats.

Polls vary on the Jewish vote: CNN/Edison’s poll of 10 states showed support for Harris at 79%, a J-Street poll put it at 71%, while Fox’s exit poll had it as low as 67%.  

J-Street’s poll, with weighting for factors like religious denomination, is likely the most accurate, and suggests support for Harris was down from the 78% Joe Biden secured in 2020.

In a climate where Jewish people have become increasingly alienated from the broader progressive world, it’s unsurprising that even the mostly liberal American Jewish community’s support for the Democrats would decline a bit.

The Gaza protest movement has alienated the general population, both in terms of those whose lives they disrupt and the image they send to ‘middle’ and working-class America which is more concerned with profound economic stress.

These trends are worth watching in Australia, where our own government has faced a backlash from the Islamic community and some progressives for its perceived support for Israel.

Of course, unlike America, Australia is not a key player in the Middle East, and our defence ties with Israel are miniscule. Accusations from the Greens and others that Australia is sending weapons to fund the war have been dishonest and largely debunked.

Nonetheless, perceived support for Israel or insufficient support for Palestine might well peel off some voters from Labor, but our compulsory voting and preferential system means it will likely only be a factor in a handful of seats.

The Liberals under Peter Dutton clearly will not court any anti-war sentiment the way Trump did, and the Greens, which have lost seats in recent state and council elections across Queensland, the ACT, Victoria and NSW, face their own dilemma on this issue.

Their 2022 gain of three federal seats in Brisbane and close run in Melbourne’s Macnamara – where 10% of voters are Jewish – was based on a campaign where mainstream issues like climate change, integrity and housing won them moderate voters that had never voted Greens before. Two years later, their ferocious obsession with trying to hold Labor to account over Gaza has seen them lurch to the far-left, which aside from certainly losing Jewish support in Macnamara, will also likely alienate those moderate voters.

Where the issue will hurt Labor the most, in Western Sydney, a new independent grouping called “The Muslim Vote”  will pose a greater threat than the Greens, but the bar for single-issue or identity-based independents to win lower house seats is very high, and I doubt any will come close to unseating Labor.

The other question for Labor will be if the backlash against the Democrats over cost of living pressures and a perceived excessive focus on socially progressive issues – which many regard Gaza to be – repeats here next year.

Polls over the past year have shown consistently that Australians do not have strong views on Gaza and favour Australia maintaining an even-handed approach. But they are worried about its divisions spilling over onto our shores and disapprove of protests, factors which may explain recent polls showing the Greens have lost support this year.

Gaza won’t be a key election issue in Australia. Concerns about social cohesion and community safety could well play a role, but ultimately, it will be the economy and cost of living that determine the election.

Compulsory voting anchors our politics more to the centre than most countries, and it also means voters tend to scrutinise their options more closely than Americans do.

Peter Dutton is not Donald Trump, but he will be hoping a similar backlash against an incumbent government over cost-of-living stress makes him Prime Minister. There’s no question that Anthony Albanese understands this is the critical issue, and he will hope that after spending most of 2024 talking about it that by the time the election comes around, voters will put their trust in him for a second term.

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