Humanitarian aid resumes as Gaza war enters new phase

On Monday, a day after the IDF announced the start of a new "extensive ground operation" in Gaza, five trucks carrying humanitarian aid entered the Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom crossing. These were the first trucks to enter the Strip since the crossings were closed at the end of the ceasefire in early March.

On Sunday, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, announced that authorities would allow a "basic amount of food" for the population. The move followed mounting international condemnation over Israel’s blockade of Gaza, announced on 2 March, which the government insisted was necessary to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining Israeli hostages taken during the deadly 7 October attacks. In further comments on Monday, Netanyahu acknowledged that even Israel’s strongest allies, particularly in the United States, could not tolerate the ongoing blockade.

The end of the blockade came after increasing US pressure, including a decision by US Vice President JD Vance decided against visiting Israel this week, a week after President Trump skipped Israel on his Middle East tour.

Leaders of the UK, France and Canada issued a joint statement on Monday condemning Israel’s handling of the humanitarian situation in Gaza. They called on Israel to immediately halt military action in the enclave and allow more aid in, warning of 'further concrete actions in response' if Jerusalem refuses."

Analysts say it is ultimately the US that will determine whether Israel continues the offensive, agrees to an interim ceasefire, or is forced to halt the fighting entirely, but there are too many variables to predict which course might be taken.

Options include indirect negotiations in Qatar between Israel and Hamas over a possible hostage release and ceasefire, potential leading to a suspension of the military campaign could potentially be suspended.

Experts interviewed for this article were divided on whether the US—now deepening its economic ties with Arab Gulf states following Donald Trump’s visit last week—would push Netanyahu to end the war. Netanyahu, analysts say, is likely to escalate the conflict both to preserve his governing coalition and due to his ideological commitment to preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state.

It is the US that will determine whether Israel sustains the offensive, agrees to an interim ceasefire or is forced to halt the fighting entirely, analysts say. At the time of this writing, there were too many variables to predict which course would be taken, including the holding of indirect negotiations in Qatar between Israel and Hamas over a possible hostage release and ceasefire. It is possible the military campaign could be suspended if these talks bear fruit.

Analysts interviewed for this article were divided over whether or not the US, with exponentially growing investment ties with Arab Gulf states after Donald Trump’s visit last week, would decide to force Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand to end the war. Netanyahu would like to step up the war to keep his coalition together and also, analysts say, out of ideological conviction to ensure a Palestinian state never arises.

But geopolitics and relations with Washington now pose unprecedented challenges to Netanyahu’s preferences. “The Americans have too much to lose and half of the Israelis don’t want this operation,” veteran commentator Daoud Kuttab said during a phone interview from Amman. “I think Netanyahu is not going to be able to be the magician this time. His magician days are over.”

“The Gulf countries don’t want this war to continue,” he explained. “I’m sure they’ve told this to Trump in private meetings. It’s hurting them internally with their publics, especially in Saudi Arabia. These pictures of dead children in Gaza don’t work [for them].”

Kuttab noted that the enormous sums of Gulf investment in the US are only promised at this point, not delivered and that they are slated to be spread out over many years. “If these countries don’t feel they are getting what they were promised directly or indirectly they will walk out,” he predicted

The war started with Hamas’s devastating attack on Oct 7, 2023 killing more than 1100 people and triggering Israel’s onslaught against Gaza, which has killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, according to Hamas health authorities. An Israeli blockade on food and supplies has brought the Strip to the brink of starvation, according to Israeli army officials who spoke to the New York Times last week.

The offensive, Operation Gideon’s Chariots, was moving forward amid questions about its real goals. The orders reportedly approved by the cabinet last week and given to top commanders listed returning the hostages as the sixth and last priority.

But on Sunday officials said the whole aim of the operation is to gain release of the hostages through military  pressure and to destroy Hamas or make it surrender. Menachem Klein, emeritus professor of political science at Bar Ilan University, told the Jewish Independent that Netanyahu, if unchecked by Washington will go much further, and shares extremist finance minister Bezalel Smotrich’s vision of forcing Gaza’s Palestinian population out and building Israeli settlements.

Klein is not the only one concerned about this. In fact, the operation’s orders as approved by the cabinet  for “concentration and movement of the population” will mean the perpetration of “war crimes and crimes against humanity” in the assessment of two leading Tel Aviv University law scholars, Eyal Benvenisti and Haim Ganz. Former defense minister Moshe Yaalon told television interviewer Lucy Aharish last week “they are sending the soldiers to carry out war crimes.”

Klein says Netanyahu is up against a US administration with a new view of the region focused on ties with the Gulf states and taking positions in line with its own interests “to make America great again” that are at loggerheads with Netanyahu’s positions. As examples he cites the opening of relations with Syria and the US attempts to forge a negotiated solution with Iran. “For the Americans, it’s a new network of regional interests and Netanyahu is an obstacle. The American attitude could be to bring Netanyahu in by saying ok, go in stages in Gaza, but you have to join the train’. Or they could work to turn Israeli opinion against him and cultivate relations with [former prime minister Naftali] Bennet and [opposition figure] Benny Ganz.”

Television commentator Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu, sees things very differently. “It’s true Israel and Netanyahu were left aside on Trump’s trip. But in general I don’t see Trump saying stop the war. Netanyahu knows that despite some poison in the air Trump won’t force Israel to change policy. I don’t see Trump, who is surrounded by so many people close to Israel, forcing Israel to do something.”

Netanyahu, meanwhile, sees it as imperative to continue the war and be able to show the public he has eliminated Hamas, Bushinsky says. For him, it is not an option to just bring the hostages back, he explained.

“There’s another element, eliminating Hamas. Otherwise, politically and historically he’s doomed. Because he has some responsibility for the failure of Oct 7, the only way for him to redeem himself is by bringing back the hostages and getting rid of Hamas. It’s the last chip he has.”

Bushinsky discounts that Netanyahu is aiming to expel the Palestinians from Gaza even though the premier has in the past embraced Trump statements endorsing that. “It’s more practical for the Hamas leadership to be exiled and get some kind of immunity and create a mechanism in which a new governance will take over and Israel will have the freedom to go back to Gaza in case this is not implemented.” He said

Ramallah-based analyst Jehad Harb also does not envision the war ending as a result of US pressure. “There will be US pressure for an interim arrangement of bringing in a lot of aid but there won’t be enough pressure to convince Netanyahu to end the war. The team in the White House is from the extreme right and close to Netanyahu.”

Harb also does not envision Trump getting into a collision with the Israel lobby in the US. “He’s got a year and a half to the midterm elections and he’ll need the support of the lobby for the Republican candidates.”

Veteran analyst Yossi Alpher does not rule out that Netanyahu would reach a ceasefire deal with Hamas that returns some hostages and then break it to resume the war as he did in March. ”We saw how he broke the ceasefire agreement by not renewing negotiations for the next stage in order to save his coalition at the expense of hostages and he could do it again. He’s got another twenty hostages to play with.”