Iranian attack on Israel expected this week: intelligence reports

Israel is expecting a major Iranian attack to be launched within days.

The country has been bracing for an Iranian response since the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, which Israel has not confirmed or denied carrying out.

After a week passed without an attack, there were hopes that heavy international pressure had deterred Iran from responding.

Instead, Iran had been expected to leave the response to Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group, whose top military commander Fuad Shukr was killed by Israel in an airstrike in Beirut several hours before Haniyeh’s assassination. Israel blamed Shukr for being behind many attacks on civilians, including a rocket strike last month that killed 12 children in a soccer field in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights.

That assumption was challenged on Monday when both Israeli and US intelligence sources said it was likely Iran would attack Israel this week.

The Israeli intelligence community still thinks Hezbollah is likely to attack first in retaliation for the assassination of its top military commander in Beirut but that Iran could join with a direct attack of its own.

The new intelligence suggests an attack could come before the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal talks planned for Thursday, which could put the indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas at risk.

"The Iranians openly signal (on the ground) their determination to carry out a significant attack in addition to their public statements that the attack will exceed the one they carried out in April. Iranian public statements do not reflect any retreat," a senior Israeli official told Axios.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a guided-missile submarine to the Middle East and accelerated the arrival of a carrier strike group to the region ahead of the anticipated Iranian attack against Israel.

Austin ordered the submarine into the waters of the Middle East, the Pentagon said. The movement of US missile submarines is rarely revealed publicly, and the nuclear-powered vessels operate in near-complete secrecy.

The announcement of a submarine’s movement is a clear message of deterrence to Iran and its proxies, who the US and Israel believe are preparing for a potential large-scale attack on Israel.

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In reversal, Israel said to now believe Iran plans to attack in next few days (Times of Israel)

White House: U.S. intelligence indicates Iran could attack Israel within days (Axios)

Defence secretary orders submarine to Middle East, accelerates arrival of strike group ahead of anticipated Iran attack (CNN)

RELATED ANALYSIS

Iran will fall into Netanyahu’s trap if it hits Israel hard – but it can still avoid disaster (Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Guardian)
A major attack would strengthen the Israeli leader and scupper peace talks over Gaza. A ceasefire should be Tehran’s priority.

These are the goals Iran wants to achieve by attacking Israel  (Jerusalem Post)
Dr. Hani Suleimani discusses his views on the growing tensions between Iran and Israel following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Iran's looming threat will challenge Israel more than Tehran's previous attack (Amos Harel, Haaretz)
Defense officials don't expect Iran and Hezbollah to backtrack on their threats of revenge for Israel's assassinations, and Israel will likely face an attack from all sides.