Iran’s nuclear capacity surged while Israel was focused on Gaza

Iran now holds enough enriched uranium for up to nine nuclear weapons, according to a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report leaked to Reuters. The news signals a dangerous new phase in the long-running standoff.

In an effort to avert open conflict, the US has quietly proposed a new deal allowing Iran limited, low-level enrichment under strict international oversight. But while Washington pushes diplomacy,  Netanyahu faces criticism for failing to take military action to prevent Iran’s nuclear advances.

A confidential report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has concluded that Iran secretly conducted nuclear activities using undeclared material at three locations—Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad—which have long been under investigation. The report, requested by the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors, said these sites were part of an undeclared and structured nuclear program active until the early 2000s. Iran’s cooperation with the agency remains “less than satisfactory.”

The findings are expected to support a resolution by the US, UK, France and Germany at the Board’s 9 June meeting, potentially declaring Iran in violation of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years. Iran has rejected the report as politically motivated and warned it will respond to any such action.

A separate IAEA report released on Saturday noted Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity—just below weapons-grade—had grown to 408.6 kg, enough for nine nuclear bombs if enriched to 90%. The IAEA warned this is a serious concern, especially as Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state producing such material.

US nuclear expert David Albright told Haaretz that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb at the underground Fordow facility within a week. Iran's current stockpile is sufficient for up to ten warheads, with feedstock available for continued enrichment over the next two to three months. In a rare Saturday statement, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office said the report confirms Iran’s nuclear programme is not peaceful. It stated, “The level of uranium enrichment Iran has reached exists only in countries actively pursuing nuclear weapons and has no civilian justification.”

The US has proposed a deal with Iran to limit the danger of its nuclear build-up. According to Axios, the agreement would allow Iran limited, low-level uranium enrichment for a negotiated period. Iran would not be allowed to build new enrichment facilities and must dismantle infrastructure for uranium conversion and processing. The plan also requires Iran to halt new R&D on centrifuges.

Key terms of the proposal:

Sanctions relief would be granted only once Iran demonstrates “real commitment” to the satisfaction of the US and the IAEA. While Iran insists on retaining enrichment rights for civilian use—a long-held red line—sources suggest the US proposal offers a clearer path to a deal. However, Israeli officials are reportedly alarmed, with Netanyahu's government lobbying for a far more restrictive approach.

US intelligence suggested in late May that Israel was preparing a raid on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Trump called Netanyahu on 22 May to discuss the possibility and subsequently told media “I don’t think [a strike is] appropriate right now." He added that he believed Iran would make an agreement. “They don’t want to be blown up. They’d rather make a deal.”

A source close to Netanyahu told Al-Monitor that the US is rushing to reach a framework deal to prevent an Israeli strike. “They understand Netanyahu is unlikely to attack after a deal is signed,” the source said.

Trump has claimed he can secure a diplomatic solution, but critics argue his interest lies more in publicity than substance. Professor Scott Lucas of University College Dublin writes in The Conversation that Trump seeks photo opportunities portraying him as a “dealmaker,” even without real agreements.

Iran's build-up happened while Israel's attention was focused elsewhere. In a December Wall Street Journal interview, Netanyahu boasted of his war victory and the harsh blow Israel had dealt to Iran. Yet, unbeknown to him, Iran was accelerating uranium enrichment.

Haaretz editor-in-chief Aluf Benn writes that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, allowed losses in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon in order to focus on strengthening Iran’s core nuclear capability.

“Khamenei could have preserved the "ring of fire" Iran had built around Israel, the axis of hostile and highly-armed armies and militias mentored and funded by Tehran, by pushing his allies for a cease-fire early in the war. Instead, he chose to keep fighting, even risking Iranian missile attacks on Israel, only to watch helplessly as Israel launched its beeper assault on Hezbollah operatives, assassinated the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah, toppled Syria's Assad, destroyed Gaza, and bombed Iran's air defenses into oblivion. Military capabilities that Iran had nurtured for decades collapsed overnight.

“But it's no coincidence that chess is associated with Iran: Khamenei sacrificed his more peripheral pawns and focused on the regime's core nuclear capability. Just when Iran looked more battered, and weaker than ever, it accelerated uranium enrichment,” wrote Benn.

Now, both Iran and Israel appear to be gambling on their perceived upper hand, awaiting a decision from the White House: a new nuclear agreement or a major regional war. Netanyahu is reportedly interpreting Trump’s opposition to a strike as covert permission for a surprise attack. Some former Israeli officials warn that Netanyahu, running out of time and options, may still act unilaterally to derail any deal.

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While Netanyahu boasted of victory, Tehran leapt toward a nuclear bomb  (Aluf  Benn, Haaretz)  

US nuclear deal offer allows Iran to enrich uranium (Barak Ravid, Axios)

Damning IAEA report spells out Iran’s past secret nuclear activities; PM: Stop Iran now (Times of Israel)

Rebuffed by Trump, has Netanyahu missed his chance to strike Iran? (Paywall, Al-Monitor)

 Why are the US and Israel not on the same page over how to deal with Iran? Expert Q&A (Scott Lucas, The Conversation)

Iran warns of retaliation if Europeans make ‘political’ use of UN nuclear reports (Times of Israel)