Israel braces for attack as Iran vows punishment for Haniyeh’s death

Israel is braced for potential attacks by Iran and Hezbollah in the coming days with fears that assaults could come from several fronts.

Iran, its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, and the Palestinian Islamist terror group Hamas blame Israel for the killing in Tehran last Wednesday of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. His assassination came just hours after a strike claimed by Israel killed Hezbollah’s military chief, Fuad Shukr, on Tuesday evening near Beirut.

Israel has claimed responsibility for killing Shukr, but has not officially commented on Haniyeh, whose death Hamas, Iran and their allies have blamed on Israel.

Both Iran and Hezbollah have vowed revenge for the killings that came amid already explosive tensions against the background of Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel that the Iran-backed terror group says are in support of Gaza.

The Israeli security establishment is on “peak alert” and members of a US-led international coalition — including Britain and allied Arab states — aimed at thwarting potential Iranian attacks on “several fronts” are braced to try to deter and intercept them.

One theory is that Iran will attack on Tisha B’Av, which walls on 12-13 August. Tisha B’Av is the Jewish day of mourning for the destruction of the temples, traditionally associated with disasters for the Jewish people.

Several countries, including Australia have told their nationals to leave Lebanon and Australia’s travel advice now instructs travellers to stay away from border areas with Lebanon.

Iran has rejected attempts by the US and Arab nations to de-escalate tensions. According to the Wall Street Journal report, foreign ministers from Jordan and Lebanon travelled to Iran in an attempt to diffuse the situation, but Iran told the Arab diplomats that it was set on striking back against Israel and “it didn’t care if the response triggered a war”.

The US is sending a carrier strike group, a fighter squadron and additional warships to the Middle East, believed to be the largest movement of US forces to the region since the early days of the Gaza war.

New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman writes that current tensions could force the US back into a Middle East war.

“If the current tit-for-tat conflict between Israel and Iran and Iran’s proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis) escalates into a full-scale war — one that Israel could not fight for very long alone — President Biden could face the most fateful decision of his presidency: whether to go to war with Iran, alongside Israel, and take out Tehran’s nuclear program, which is the keystone of Iran’s strategic network in the region. Iran has been building that network to supplant America as the most powerful force in the Middle East and to bleed Israel to death by a thousand cuts inflicted by its proxies.”

Trita Parsi, from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, writes in Time that the assassination of Haniyeh and consequent conflict with Iran could corner a future President Kamala Harris, making it impossible for her to take a harder line with Israel and insist on a ceasefire deal in Gaza.

The negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire-hostage release deal are on hold and will not pick up until after Iran’s retaliation.

Senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations Dalia Dassa Kaye writes in Foreign Affairs that Israel’s escalation through high-level assassinations are a desperate attempt to restore deterrence after the disaster of October 7.

“But Israel is going for broke without any political strategy. Putting faith in brute military force to restore deterrence and doubling down on confrontation with Iran and its allies without a political or strategic game plan is unlikely to change the emerging regional dynamics that so worry Israeli military planners. It is unlikely to deter the members of the “axis of resistance,” who may themselves double down in unexpected ways and surprise Israel once again.

“If Israel still believes that integrating itself more fully into the Middle East by striking normalisation deals with its Arab neighbours will marginalise Iranian-backed extremist groups and reduce the hostility toward the country, it must come to terms with the fact that its conflict with the Palestinians constitutes its most fundamental existential threat. Impressive tactical military operations may give the illusion of victory, but only an enduring peace with the Palestinians can bring real security.”

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Israel braces for Iran attack as US works to revive coalition that foiled April assault (Times of Israel)

Iran said to dismiss US, Arab calls for restraint — even if it sparks war (Times of Israel)

Countries urge nationals to leave Lebanon as Mid-East war fears grow (BBC)

US sending aircraft carrier, warships and fighter squadron to Middle East as region braces for Iranian retaliation (CNN)

Iran plans to attack Israel on Tisha B’Av, the Jewish day of disaster - report (Jerusalem Post)

Hostage talks on hold until after Iran response, replacement of Haniyeh — officials (Times of Israel)

America may soon face a fateful choice about Iran (Thomas L. Friedman, NY Times)

The Middle East is inching toward another war (Trita Parsi, Time)

Why Israel chose to escalate (Dalia Dassa Kaye, Foreign Affairs)