Aa
  • Read, Watch, Listen
  • TJI Series
  • Community Action
  • Events
  • Zedi
Follow us and continue the conversation
  • LinkedIn
  • Instagram
  • FaceBook
  • X
  • YouTube
Test yourself with the TJI Quiz!

Adjust size of text

Aa

Follow us and continue the conversation

  • LinkedIn
  • Instagram
  • FaceBook
  • X
  • YouTube

Your saved articles

You haven't saved any articles

What are you looking for?

Original reporting, insightful analysis and diverse views, delivered straight to your inbox

  • LinkedIn
  • Instagram
  • FaceBook
  • X
  • YouTube
Your support fuels our mission to inform, entertain and inspire.

The Jewish Independent is bound by the Standards of Practice of the Australian Press Council. If you believe the Standards may have been breached, you may approach The Jewish Independent or make a complaint to the Australian Press Council in writing at www.presscouncil.org.au. The Council may also be contacted on 1800 025 712.

  • Our Story
  • Contact us
  • Our Team
  • Support us
  • Guidelines
  • Pitch your idea
  • Republishing us
  • Community Action
  • Our Awards
  • LinkedIn
  • Instagram
  • FaceBook
  • X
  • YouTube
Aboriginal FlagTorres Strait Islanders Flag

The Jewish Independent acknowledges Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the Traditional Owners and Custodians of Country throughout Australia. We pay our respects to Elders past and present, and strive to honour their rich history of storytelling in our work and mission.

© The Jewish Independent 2026All Rights Reserved
Website design and development by Your Creative, MelbourneTerms & ConditionsPrivacy Policy
HomeRead, Watch, ListenWorld
AnalysisWorld

War could open Iran to even more radicalised forces

Not only is regime change uncertain but it risks a scenario where more radicalized forces come to power and a regional war.
James Horncastle and Jack Adam MacLennan
Print this
Explosions-in-Tehran-March-1

Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on March 1, 2026, after Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed a day earlier in a large U.S. and Israeli attack, prompting a new wave of retaliatory missile strikes from Iran. (Photo by Fariba / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

Published: 2 March 2026

Last updated: 2 March 2026

Israel and the United States have launched combat operations against Iran via Operation Epic Fury. The air campaign appears aimed at three targets: Iran’s military bases and command structure, its air defences and strategic missile sites and its leadership.

Early strikes were successful in killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei and several key members of the leadership.

The strikes themselves are likely to be successful from a strictly military standpoint. Israeli and American forces are quickly establishing air superiority over Iran and disabling Iran’s anti-air capabilities.

These attacks occur at a moment when Iran is weakened both domestically and internationally.

The Iranian regime is still recovering from the December and January protests that were the greatest challenge to the Iranian government since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Internationally, key members of Iran’s “ring of fire,” like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, are in a vulnerable position. Furthermore, the domestic unrest have emboldened people around the world to challenge the Iranian regime’s legitimacy.

Nevertheless, the US and Israel are unlikely to be successful in their stated goal of regime change. Historically, air power alone is insufficient. Furthermore, even if they succeed in regime change, they may create an even more volatile geopolitical situation.

Escalating tensions

The tensions between the US-Israel and Iran are nothing new. Their foundations go back to the birth of the Islamic Republic.

There’s been a significant escalation of tensions, however, over the past few years. The Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack against Israeli citizens and Iran’s role in supporting Hamas and other paramilitary groups opposed to the Israeli state resulted in Israel launching extensive strikes against Iranian assets in the region.

These strikes culminated in last year’s Twelve Day War between Israel and Iran, with the U.S. playing an auxilliary role. American and Israeli strikes inflicted significant damage on Iranian infrastructure. But they didn’t achieve the American goal of eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, despite President Donald Trump’s claims to the contrary.

Iranian protests

Against this backdrop of rising tensions between Israel/the United States and Iran, the economic situation in Iran deteriorated, resulting in shopkeepers and merchants in Tehran going on strike. These protests served as a spark for what became the largest public demonstrations against the Iranian regime that it had encountered since the birth of the Islamic Republic.

This latest uprising by the Iranian people presented an opportunity for the U.S. and Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has never backed down from his goal of regime change in Iran. Trump actively encouraged the protesters to fight for regime change.

The protesters, however, needed material support that only the U.S. could provide. But with American military assets in the Caribbean challenging Venezuela, there were insufficient forces available.

The result was that the U.S. was not able to intervene, and the Iranian regime succeeded in quashing the protests. Total deaths from the government’s crackdown are estimated to be in the thousands.

The U.S., having missed its ideal opportunity for regime change due to its fixation on Venezuela earlier in the year, nevertheless went through with pursuing its goal on Feb. 28.

An uncertain end

The problem now faced by Israel and the US is the stated goal of regime change and the long-term stability of Iran. Not only is regime change uncertain due to the limitations of a strictly air campaign, but it could also create a scenario where more radicalized forces come to power.

This comes from the fact that, while the Iranian regime is often equated with prominent figures like the Ayatollah, it operates as more than a system centred on a single individual.

Unlike other authoritarian countries where key individuals or families have power, Iran is a complex state with a complex governance structure. At its heart is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Far from merely a military unit or secret police, the IRGC is a vast institution integrated within the security, economy and governance of Iran.

This is where the difference between “regime change” and “regime building” comes to light. Removing key leaders may destabilize Iran and change who wields power, but that usually means power is then consolidated by people already in place. That’s not the citizens Iran, who Trump urged to rise up, but the vast infrastructure of the IRGC.

Conflict could spread

This outcome is more likely given the instability of Iran over the past few weeks. If the regime were stable, Iranian political and military leaders wouldn’t view the current attacks as posing a threat to their control. But under the current volatile domestic circumstances, these leaders are likely to respond more forcefully and broadly because they believe their own future — and lives — are at stake.

The IRGC isn’t likely to be a more conciliatory or ideologically permissive interlocutor. In fact, the opposite is probably true.

Faced with the threat of further American and Israeli attacks and nascent discontent at home, the IRGC may move quickly to further lock down its own power and respond aggressively. This power struggle could not only result in significant Iranian deaths, but cause the war to spread throughout Middle East.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

You might also like
  • ‘Israel is systemically eliminating Palestinian collective life’:  B’Tselem
    Deborah Stone
  • Tame apologises – but with little grace
    Deborah Stone
  • Confronting Richard Flanagan and the myth of the Israel lobby
    Mary Garden
logomark.67a07ee3
We believe in the free flow of information

Republish our articles for free, online or in print, by using our Creative Commons licence

You might also like

    Rozana Beit Oula
    PeacebuildingOpinionIsrael

    Peacebuilding through the eyes of a sceptic

    Ron Finkel
    Ms. Foundation Women of Vision Awards: Celebrating Generations of Progress & Power
    ReflectionWorld

    My memory of Gloria Steinem

    Michael Visontay
    Erdogan Turkey
    AnalysisIsrael

    Turkey emerges as military threat to Israel

    Dror Doron

Comments2

  • Avatar of Steve Holstein

    Steve Holstein7 March at 03:01 am

    I’ve seen ‘six-deep’ succession plans cited even by some Israeli analysts, but I don’t buy it. A list of names isn’t a credible plan, especially when it lacks superior training or genuine information sharing. A failing regime with corrupt tentacles reaching through every level of its military and industrial infrastructure is simply incapable of comprehensive planning. Recent reports of international crypto flows and asset flight ahead of the war further expose the facade: the ‘new guard’ has no intention of sacrificing themselves to protect the old guard’s inherited wealth.
    Any succession plan here will function like a cockroach without a head. The legs will kick longer than you might expect, but the body is already dead.
    The ensuing chaos is the real threat. Whether that vacuum is viewed as more manageable than the regime’s survival seems to depend entirely on your political leanings. For many of us, the morality of the war and the support for the Iranian people are beyond doubt. The real question for the U.S. and Israel is whether they can emerge victorious while surviving the internal assaults on their democracies led by Trump and Netanyahu.

  • Avatar of Mark Ian

    Mark Ian5 March at 07:06 am

    The victories of Nazism and the Empire of Japan against the poorly armed Nations enabling the Holocaust of the Jewish and Roma People and Starvation of the Slavic People and tens of millions killed in China and Asia with Heinous Atrocities and Barbarism provided the urgency in attacking the Jihadi Republic of Iran .
    The chants “Death to America “ and “Death to Israel” began to be taken with fear with the parading of underground ballistic missiles and deep underground uranium enrichment cylinders
    The Aim is a Moderate Iranian Regime the model being Japan keeping the Emperor after surrender August 1945.

About the author

James Horncastle and Jack Adam MacLennan

James Horncastle is an assistant professor in the Department of Global Humanities and the holder of the Edward and Emily McWhinney Professorship in International Relations at Simon Fraser University. Jack Adam MacLennan is an associate professor of international relations and national security studies and the graduate program director for national security studies at Park University.