Fears Jewish Liberal voters could deliver electorate to Greens

The electorate that represents most of Melbourne’s Jewish community has been a Labor seat for more than 100 years, but Jewish community disappointment with the Albanese government could change that in the upcoming federal election.

Macnamara, formerly known as Melbourne Ports, represents a swathe of Melbourne’s southeast, including the “shtetl suburbs” of Caulfield, St Kilda East and Ripponlea, and the gentrified progressive-voting inner suburbs of Port Melbourne and St Kilda. The current member is Labor’s Josh Burns, who took over from long-time representative Michael Danby in 2019 – both Jewish MPs with strong relationships in the Jewish community.

But ALP sources are concerned that the combination of a Jewish drift to the Liberals and strong support for the Greens in the inner suburbs could rob the party of the seat for the first time since 1906, and deliver it to a Greens candidate.

Jewish voters don’t decide Macnamara: they make up only 12% of the electorate. But Labor was only 125 votes ahead of the Greens candidate on first preference votes in 2022, which means every vote counts in a seat that could easily defect to the Greens this time.

Burns faces Liberal candidate Benson Saulo and Greens candidate Sonya Semmens, plus a scattering of minor candidates who will have very little impact on the result. Both are first-time candidates, neither is Jewish, and neither had a strong profile in the electorate prior to the campaign.

The Greens have strong support from the inner city: Macnamara is a neighbour to Melbourne, the electorate of Greens leader Adam Bandt, which will deliver Semmens a strong primary vote. The play of preferences means Jewish voters who backed Labor last time could push her over the line if they defect to Liberal.

That’s because Liberal is very unlikely to win in Macnamara, but enough Liberal voters could lift Saulo into second place, pushing Burns out of the race and delivering his preferences to the Greens. Such a result would be deeply ironic.

Many Jewish voters are upset with the Albanese government’s foreign policy on Israel, particularly votes against Israel at the United Nations and stronger language against the occupation of the West Bank and illegal settlements. Some consider a lack of sympathy with Israel after October 7 and a tendency to cast Israel as the aggressor has fuelled growing antisemitism, and believe the government has not done enough to counter rising hate.

But Jewish voters are even more angry with the Greens, so much so that the Zionist Federation of Australia (ZFA) and the Executive Council of Australian Jewry (ECAJ) have written to the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition requesting that both major parties preference each other above the Greens.

The Greens voted against a parliamentary motion to condemn Hamas; Bandt and other Greens politicians have been vocal mouthpieces for a Palestinian perspective; and the party has shown little concern about antisemitism. Greens MP Jenny Leong has even been guilty of a racial slur against Jews, referring to the "tentacles" of the Jewish lobby. Progressive Jews who have previously supported the Greens have abandoned the party.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s strong language in support of Israel and against antisemitism has been widely applauded by communal leaders and there is a strong push in the community towards voting Liberal.

But the ALP will be asking Jewish voters in Macnamara to think more strategically about their votes, and to ask themselves whether they are willing to cast a vote for the Liberals that in practice may deliver a Green to parliament.