Published: 25 March 2025
Last updated: 4 April 2025
The electorate that represents most of Melbourne’s Jewish community has been a Labor seat for more than 100 years, but Jewish community disappointment with the Albanese government could change that in the upcoming federal election.
Macnamara, formerly known as Melbourne Ports, represents a swathe of Melbourne’s southeast, including the “shtetl suburbs” of Caulfield, St Kilda East and Ripponlea, and the gentrified progressive-voting inner suburbs of Port Melbourne and St Kilda. The current member is Labor’s Josh Burns, who took over from long-time representative Michael Danby in 2019 – both Jewish MPs with strong relationships in the Jewish community.
But ALP sources are concerned that the combination of a Jewish drift to the Liberals and strong support for the Greens in the inner suburbs could rob the party of the seat for the first time since 1906, and deliver it to a Greens candidate.
Jewish voters don’t decide Macnamara: they make up only 12% of the electorate. But Labor was not far ahead of the Greens candidate on first preference votes in 2022, which means every vote counts in a seat that could easily defect to the Greens this time.
Burns faces Liberal candidate Benson Saulo and Greens candidate Sonya Semmens, plus a scattering of minor candidates who will have very little impact on the result. Both are first-time candidates, neither is Jewish, and neither had a strong profile in the electorate prior to the campaign.
The Greens have strong support from the inner city: Macnamara is a neighbour to Melbourne, the electorate of Greens leader Adam Bandt, which will deliver Semmens a strong primary vote. The play of preferences means Jewish voters who backed Labor last time could push her over the line if they defect to Liberal.
That’s because Liberal is very unlikely to win in Macnamara, but enough Liberal voters could push Labor to third place, delivering his preferences to the Greens. Such a result would be deeply ironic.
Many Jewish voters are upset with the Albanese government’s foreign policy on Israel, particularly votes against Israel at the United Nations and stronger language against the occupation of the West Bank and illegal settlements. Some consider a lack of sympathy with Israel after October 7 and a tendency to cast Israel as the aggressor has fuelled growing antisemitism, and believe the government has not done enough to counter rising hate.
But Jewish voters are even more angry with the Greens, so much so that the Zionist Federation of Australia (ZFA) and the Executive Council of Australian Jewry (ECAJ) have written to the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition requesting that both major parties preference each other above the Greens.
Comments13
Leigh Fitzpatrick15 April at 07:33 am
To be against Israel’s genocide in Gaza is NOT anti- Semitic it is speaking up for humanitarian values. I applaud the Greens the only party to be doing this.
Hayim1 April at 08:57 am
The Greens consistently advocate antiracism that explicitly includes fighting antisemitism alongside other prejudices. To say they dont care about antisemitism is nonsense.
On the other hand, unlike certain Liberal and Labor politicians, Green’s leaders have not exploited and instrumentalised antisemitism in order to prosecute their political aims, such as scoring cheap points on opponents, or advancing draconian protest laws.
Adrian Jackson28 March at 03:17 am
I hate the current Israel government who are slaughtering Christian an Muslim Palestinians in large numbers. More have been murdered recently than the total 2nd AIF KIA’s in WW2. Adrian Jackson ADF Infantry Officer 1972 – 1994
Anne Q27 March at 10:21 pm
As is typical with all of Deborah’s work, this framing lacks nuance and does a disservice to a complex electoral landscape.
This article oversimplifies Jewish voting patterns and misrepresents preferential voting, implying Jewish Liberal voters are responsible for a Greens victory when Labor’s preferences play a key role. It leans into fear tactics rather than neutral analysis, overemphasizing Jewish voters (just 12% of the electorate) while ignoring broader demographic shifts. It also assumes Israel is the primary concern for Jewish voters, overlooking other key issues like the economy and climate policy.
David Jackson26 March at 03:11 am
As a former ALP candidate let me say there’s no homogeneous Jewish voting bloc. Recent bi-elections have demonstrated that the Green’s vote is down. Other than voting informal, these people will vote Labor. We also know that fewer voters are not giving first preferences to either the ALP or Liberal so what will be 2 Party Preferred vote? Maybe your right Liberal preferences may give the seat to the Greens, hard to say.
Richard Codron25 March at 01:00 pm
This article makes no sense at all. If the Greens win the seat it is because Labor preferences the Greens over the Liberals. That’s Labor’s call. The Greens won’t win without Labor preferences. Labor should preference the Liberals and visa versa. This is effectively why the Greens lost Prahan. Let it be a contest between Burns and Saulo.
Ian Grinblat25 March at 09:13 am
“That’s because Liberal is very unlikely to win in Macnamara, but enough Liberal voters could lift Saulo into second place, pushing Burns out of the race and delivering his preferences to the Greens. Such a result would be deeply ironic.”
That argument sound to me suspiciously like “Now, look what you made me do”, the typical resonse of an abusive person.
Now why would Josh burns be directing his preferences to the Greens? There lies the problem.
Rachel Sussman25 March at 07:52 am
This is really a no win situation for the Macnamara Jewish community… it is as if they must be untrue to themselves and still come on the wrong side… very unfortunate… is there someone clever out there that can solve this dilema?
Victor Ziegler25 March at 07:38 am
Preferences need to be considered when voting. There is a possibility of the Moslem vote splitting the left and having the liberals winning seats such as Tony Bourkes seat. It can work both ways
David Schulberg25 March at 07:22 am
This is the ALP strategy which is playing on the fears of Jewish voters in Macnamara to get them to cast a vote for Labor in the belief that that will save them from the Greens.
This is a negative approach. At the moment the polling in Macnamara shows the Liberals leading with an increase in their vote, followed by the Greens with Burns in third place.
As long as Burns does not preference the Greens on his ticket, which has to be the way he goes given the contempt he professes to have for the Greens, then it is unlikely that the Greens will be able to muster enough preferential votes to overtake the Liberals in the final count.
Karen Fink25 March at 06:29 am
Labor operatives in McNamara should stop trying to bamboozle the community with this rubbish about preferences. Vote for the righteous and moral party and that means putting liberals 1st greens last and Labour and Burns 2nd last.
Noel Erlich25 March at 06:21 am
If the Jewish Community in Macnamara votes largely for Liberal there is a good chance that the seat will fall to the Greens. The Jewish Community needs to wake up to this and support Josh Burns. Can you imagine us with a Green representing us. We will lose what we have and get goornisht.
Doodie Ringelblum25 March at 06:15 am
Although this seems counter-intuitive in preferential voting – the point of which is to let your preferences flow the way you want – it is an accurate description of what is happening in a three cornered contest. The real issue for Liberal voters is that a vote for the Liberals will provide a tiny increased chance of Liberal success – but highly, highly unlikely of victory – whilst significantly increasing the chance of Greens victory by pushing Labor into third.
For those who want to read about this in more detail and try different scenarios of voting patterns, please see the following spreadsheet
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/negdcabjb74ed5xvixq79/Macnamara-Preferences-Modelling-v2.6.xlsx?rlkey=nyf1z263ru7tcuwbp377174u8&dl=0