Israel faces a hard choice about the border with Lebanon

There are only two options to deal with Hezbollah, both problematic: defensive containment or a military campaign to push the threat back from the border.

The unprecedented attack by Hamas last month appears to be leading Israeli policymakers and military leadership to implement major changes to Israel’s security doctrine.

For years, Israel has accepted Iran’s proxy para-military organisations (Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon) being stationed near its borders. The answer to those threats was a strong defensive position combined with deterrence based on the IDF’s superior firepower.

The aim of this policy was to contain Hamas and Hezbollah and allow Israel to focus on the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Tragically, this policy was wrong, as was Israel’s faith in the massive barrier it built around Gaza to prevent a Hamas ground attack.

It is clear Israel needs to revise the long-standing doctrine of engaging in a military confrontation only as a last resort to prevent an immediate threat.

This has implications for the situation in Lebanon, which is more complicated than Gaza because Hezbollah’s military capabilities are far superior to those of Hamas. Over the past few years, Israeli villages and settlements along the border with Lebanon have been under serious threat of a surprise ground attack by Hezbollah.

Its elite Redwan force is estimated to number 2500 highly trained fighters stationed at posts along the Israeli border. Hezbollah’s propaganda had not attempted to hide this force’s main goal: penetrating Israel and taking IDF posts and civilian settlements under the slogan “conquering the Galilee”. This call is no longer seen as merely propaganda.

The concept of a surprise attack by Redwan was “a high risk, low probability” scenario and Israel’s main response has been defensive efforts to curb Hezbollah's capability to carry out this plan.

An above-ground border barrier was built in areas considered vulnerable, and in 2018 the IDF exposed and destroyed underground tunnels dug by Hezbollah for cross-border incursions.