Israel votes on the 27th. But the election may start on the 28th.

Two weeks out from the 27 October election, and Israel has seen this movie before. Netanyahu's coalition and the opposition are more or less tied, and neither bloc has a path to a majority without the Arab parties.

The déjà vu is real. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel went through four deadlocked elections. But this time there is one major difference. In previous deadlocks, a small change in voting could have delivered a coalition.

This time, both blocs are so far short of a majority that a seat here and there won't get either of them over the line.

So, what could tip the balance? Aside from campaigning, security disasters and social media, here are three things to watch for.

1. Voter Turnout. Voting isn't compulsory in Israel, and turnout rises and falls from one election to the next. It also varies sharply between communities. Jewish Israeli voters average around 68%; the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) turn out in much higher numbers, and Arab voters in much lower ones. When the blocs are this close, who stays home matters as much as who votes, and the parties intentionally try to rile up voters out of political apathy.

2. Small parties and the threshold. A party needs 3.25% of the vote – four seats – to enter the Knesset. Several new and small parties are hovering around that line.. Their fate could determine the whole election.

But it isn't only their fate at stake; it's the whole election's. Ofer Winter's far right Amcha Israel (People of Israel) is currently polling above the threshold. If he succeeds it may add additional seats to the current right-wing coalition at the expense of the opposition. Other small and new parties may not be so lucky, and previous centre-bloc leader Benny Gantz’s Blue and White is polling around 1 seat. He is unlikely to make it into the Knesset and many on his side of politics thinks he is wasting precious votes by continuing his campaign.

3. Vote sharing and waster votes. Two parties can enter a vote sharing agreement so that excess votes can be distributed in the event that they do not make up a full Knesset seat. Vote-sharing agreements must be finalised by 16 October, and the pairings are largely set: Likud with Smotrich, Bennett/Lapid with Lieberman, Eisenkot with Yair Golan's Democrats, the ultra-Orthodox parties with each other, and the Arab parties with their own arrangements. The one still left in the cold is Ben Gvir, who is talking to Ofer Winter. The big risk is that if a party fails to reach 3.25%, none of its votes count towards the vote sharing deal.