October 7 architect Yahya Sinwar set to make Hamas even more extreme

Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar – its leader in Gaza and one of the planners of the October 7 terror attack on Israel – as the new head of its political bureau, following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh last week.

Israel has publicly accused Sinwar of being the “mastermind” behind Hamas’ attack – though experts say he is likely one of several – making him one of the key targets of its war in Gaza.

He has remained at large in the vast warren of tunnels trenched beneath Gaza, moving frequently and possibly surrounded by hostages as human shields, US officials believe. Sinwar has not been seen in public since October 7.

The move consolidates Hamas under Sinwar, one of the group’s most powerful figures. Sinwar is seen as a hardliner and his appointment casts further uncertainty over truce talks already rattled by Haniyeh’s assassination.

Sinwar’s predecessor Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran last week, raising fears that Israel’s conflict with Hamas and its allies could develop into a multi-front, fully-fledged war in the Middle East. While the Iranian government and Hamas say that Israel carried out the assassination, Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

The appointment is seen as a message from Hamas to Israel, to the US, to the mediators of the hostage deal, and to the Palestinian public. Sinwar will be the one to decide the specifics of the agreement, while simultaneously attempting to influence the discourse in front of all the relevant parties on the day after the war.

Avi Issacharoff writes that Sinwar sees himself as a modern-day Saladin and anyone who disagrees with him will be killed.

"Sinwar has told other senior members of Hamas, "I will navigate, I will lead and anyone who disapproves will end up dead", wrote Issacharoff.

“By choosing Sinwar as the new politburo chief, any appearance of a division of authority or separation between the leadership abroad and the one in Gaza under Sinwar became a thing of the past.

“Although Haniyeh's leadership role was mostly symbolic since he left Gaza for Qatar, he maintained some political sway. Now no-one will dare oppose the all-powerful Sinwar who will do all it takes to solidify his rule and will eliminate any threat to it, without hesitation.

“Under his control, Hamas will become even more extreme, leaning closer to the position of the Muslim Brotherhood and their leader Sayyid Qutb.”

Sinwar’s appointment returns the decision-making power of Hamas to Gaza and blurs the distinction between its political and military wings.

The move raised immediate questions on the next steps for ceasefire and hostage negotiations with Israel.

Basem Naim, a member of Hamas’ political bureau, told CNN late Tuesday that the selection of Sinwar to replace Haniyeh means, “you [Israel] chose to assassinate those who negotiate, and we chose those who can oblige you to sign the agreement”.

And one man who spent many years in Israeli prisons with Sinwar, Esmat Mansour, told CNN that his new role spells trouble for any future deal.

“As far as Israel is concerned, this is not good news regarding the deal, because it has considered the military wing and Sinwar to be the hardliners,” he said. “It’s Sinwar who holds the captives. Now all decisions are within his authority, the military as well as the political decisions, and the decision [whether to hold] negotiations.”

He added that Sinwar’s close relationship with Iran could mean other negotiating parties, like Qatar and Turkey, which have good relations with the United States, “lose their ability to influence the deal, or at least weaken their ability to influence”.

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Hamas names Oct. 7 architect Yahya Sinwar new political leader. What does it mean for ceasefire talks? (CNN)

Hamas names Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar as chief following Ismail Haniyeh killing (Haaretz)

Any opposition to Sinwar means death (Avi Issacharoff, Ynet)