Terror in Australia ‘probable’, new evidence of increasing antisemitism

Australia's official terror alert level has been raised to "probable", with Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel and the subsequent Israel-Hamas war cited as drivers.

Security authorities believe the chances of a violent extremist act are now more likely than when authorities lowered the alert level to "possible" in November 2022.

ASIO's director-general Mike Burgess said Australia's security environment had become more volatile and unpredictable, with political polarisation and intolerance gaining momentum after October 7 and accelerating during Israel’s military response. 

Burgess said the dynamics of the Middle East were "raising the temperature" of Australia's security environment.

“Australia’s security environment is degrading. It is more volatile and more unpredictable.

"More Australians are being radicalised and being radicalised more quickly. More Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies, and more Australians are willing to use violence to advance their cause."

Burgess said where ASIO had previously been primarily concerned about espionage and foreign interference, it now sees homegrown political violence as a significant threat. The terror threat encompasses violent protest, riots and attacks on a politician or democratic institute.

He said raising the threat level did not mean ASIO had intelligence about plans of a current attack or expectations of an imminent attack.

But he said agencies had disrupted eight incidents in the last four months alone, which involved alleged terrorism or were investigated as potential acts of terrorism.

Those cases included risks of knife attacks or attacks with improvised weapons and involved young people who had been radicalised — the youngest aged 14, and the oldest aged 21.

Increasing antisemitism

The ASIO warning came as the Jewish Community Council of Victoria (JCCV) and Community Security Group (CSG) released a report on anti-Jewish incidents in Victoria in 2023.

The report identifies 364 incidents in 2023 compared with 131 in the previous year.

The report shows a dramatic and unprecedented increase in vilification, hatred, and racism, both before and after Hamas’ terror attack against Israel on October 7, 2023. Prior to Hamas’ terror attack on Israel, more incidents were reported between January 1 and October 6, 2023, than in all of 2022. A majority of these incidents were expressly linked to neo-Nazi or far right ideology.

The situation deteriorated after October 7 and with the start of the Israel-Hamas war, with more than two thirds (69%) of incidents in 2023 occurring between October 7 and December 31. November saw the highest number of antisemitic incidents ever recorded in a single month in Victoria (109).

Incidents related to Israel/Palestine increased dramatically after October 7.

The report did not include as antisemitic expressions of hostility towards Israel (e.g. graffiti “Israel = Genocide”), or support for pro-Palestinian ideology (e.g. “Free Palestine”) .

But it included Israel-related incidents where an antisemitic motivation or connection could be discerned (e.g. “I love Hamas. Get the f*cking Jews wiped out”) or where Jewish people were targeted (e.g. shouting towards an identifiably Jewish person, “free Palestine, you support genocide”).

Of the 364 incidents, 151 referred to Israel, Palestine or Zionism.

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