The first stage of the ceasefire ends today: what’s next?

The first stage of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal is expected to officially end today with the return of the bodies of four Israeli citizens and the release of hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners.

On Thursday morning (Australia time), Israeli officials confirmed that the Red Cross had received the remains of slain hostages from Hamas. Israel is expected to carry out forensic identification of the bodies near the border to determine whether Hamas has returned the hostages it was required to. The slain hostages are Itzhak Elgarat, Tsachi Idan, Ohad Yahalomi, and Shlomo Mantzur, four Israelis who were taken hostage alive by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and killed in captivity.

As part of the release last week of six living hostages, Israel is expected to free 620 Palestinian prisoners, whose release was postponed due to Hamas violations in the previous round, when the bodies of four hostages were returned. Among those to be released, 71 have been sentenced to life terms, while 60 others received lengthy prison sentences. A total of 97 prisoners will be deported outside Palestinian territories, five will be released to East Jerusalem, 37 to the West Bank, and 457 to the Gaza Strip. Additionally, 105 prisoners will be released with 24 hours’ worth of medication, and five will be transferred by ambulance.

Despite countless obstacles, the humanitarian operation has been fully completed. All 33 hostages who appeared on the list have been returned to Israel, eight of them dead.

The ceasefire agreement set out a three-stage process, but little detail was set out beyond the first stage. Now, the optimism following the initial ceasefire deal has faded, with the truce set to expire and negotiations for a permanent peace stalled.

Netanyahu is under tremendous pressure to return to war. His finance minister, the far-right-winger Bezalel Smotrich, has threatened to withdraw from the governing coalition if Israel does not restart the war after this weekend. Itamar Ben Gvir quit his post as national security minister over the ceasefire, while Hamas remains reluctant to release more hostages without a firm commitment to end hostilities, leaving the ceasefire’s future uncertain.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday evening that Washington is determined to move forward with the rest of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. "Stage one is ending, stage two has started," Trump said, noting that Israel needed to make decisions now.

Steve Witkoff, the president's Middle East envoy, said he believed Israel and Hamas would reach an understanding on the way forward as early as this weekend. He indicated that he may arrive in the region on Sunday to close the deal. Witkoff hinted earlier this week that the White House was examining proposals to resolve the main point of contention in formally ending the war—namely, Israel’s demands, supported by the Trump administration, that Hamas no longer remain in power in Gaza, disarm, and that its leaders go into exile.

Another sticking point is Israel's written commitment to begin withdrawing from the Gaza-Egypt border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, next Saturday and complete the evacuation within eight days. That obligation, which appears in the agreement signed with Hamas, is not conditional, but Israel has stated in recent days that it will not implement it without a clear agreement with Hamas. The chances of that are slim.

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid has presented an alternative vision for a “day after” plan for Gaza, envisioning an extended Egyptian guardianship of the war-torn Strip.

“Israel cannot agree to Hamas remaining in power,” said the former prime minister in a speech in Washington DC on Tuesday. “The Palestinian Authority is neither willing nor able to manage Gaza in the near future. Israeli occupation is neither desirable nor possible. A constant state of chaos is both a security threat and a humanitarian disaster.”

The plan would see Egypt take responsibility for managing Gaza for eight years, with the option to extend it to 15 years. An Egyptian-led Arab force would be responsible for disarming and rebuilding Gaza, as well as helping establish a new government. Egypt, in turn, would be incentivised with massive international debt relief.

In exchange, Cairo would have its foreign debt paid off by the international community. Lapid argued that if Egypt’s economy does not recover, the regime’s “leadership is at risk. That is bad news for us all.”

“Egypt is a key strategic partner and a reliable ally for almost fifty years,” said Lapid. “A strong, moderate, pragmatic Sunni state and a crucial player in the region. President El-Sisi is a stabilising force in the Middle East and Africa. He is a long-time fighter against religious fanaticism.”

Lapid's plan would permit any Palestinian who wishes to leave Gaza to do so. It would also allow the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza after a process of reform and de-radicalisation, with measurable indicators—in contrast to Netanyahu’s government, which has completely ruled out PA governance of Gaza. It further calls for a US-Israeli-Egyptian security mechanism to combat immediate threats.

On Tuesday, President Trump posted a video on his Truth Social account, which appears to have been created with generative AI, promoting the transformation of Gaza into a Gulf state-like resort featuring a golden statue of himself, a hummus-eating Elon Musk, and shirtless American and Israeli leaders lounging on a beach. The video starts with scenes of people walking through rubble and bombed-out buildings before the words “What’s next?” appear on the screen.

“No more tunnels, no more fear,” a voice sings over a dance beat. “Trump Gaza is finally here!” The American president has proposed expelling 2.1 million Palestinians from Gaza and transforming the enclave into a “Riviera” that would be owned by the US.

The video was heavily criticised by Palestinians on social media, Al-Monitor reports. Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the video “makes a mockery of all serious plans to change & transform Gaza.” Palestinian social media influencer Khaled Safi said in a post on X that the video "embodies the mentality of colonisers throughout history." London-based Egyptian journalist Osama Gaweesh said in a post on X that “Donald Trump has literally lost his mind," calling the images of money falling from the sky “despicable.”

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Israel-Hamas cease-fire's first stage set to end with return of four deceased hostages (Haaretz)

‘Trump Gaza is finally here!’: US president promotes Gaza plan in AI video (CNN)

71 serving life sentences, Shalit deal releasees and convicted killers: These are the prisoners set to be freed (Ynetnews)

As the clock ticks down on the Gaza ceasefire, Israel prepares for more war (CNN)

Trump’s AI Gaza video elicits mockery from Middle East social media users (Al-Monitor, Paywall)

Lapid presents Gaza ‘day after’ plan in DC, urges extended Egyptian takeover (The Times of Israel)