US-Iran nuclear talks: positions, progress and Israel’s anxieties

Iran and the United States wrapped up the first round of their talks aimed at resolving the standoff over Tehran's nuclear program at a meeting hosted by the Omani government in Muscat on Saturday.

The negotiations between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff were the highest-level dialogue between U.S. and Iranian officials in eight years. A sourced speaking to Axios described the conversation as "substantive, serious, and excellent."

In an interview with Iranian state TV on Saturday evening, Araghchi described the indirect talks as "constructive." "I think the talks were held in a calm and very respectful atmosphere," Araghchi said. "No disrespectful language was used."

Further negotiations are planned for next Saturday.

In May 2018, when the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord, Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State, made 12 demands on which any new agreement with Tehran would have to be based. Among them, Iran would have to dismantle its ballistic missile program; end its support for terror, including Hezbollah and the Houthis; close its heavy water plant; cease enriching uranium and processing plutonium; and hand over to the International Atomic Energy Agency all the information it had amassed in the past for its nuclear military program.

Trump now appears to be aiming for a much more modest wish list that Iran might just agree to, but it is far removed from what Prime Minister Netanyahu is seeking, Zvi Bar’el reports in Haaretz.

The US now wants to see Iran take steps in the near future to move its nuclear program further from weaponisation. One of the sources said to Axios that one such step could be "downblending" Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade 60% enriched uranium, which could be enough for six nuclear bombs.

President Trump said that he expects to make a decision on Iran very quickly. "Nothing matters until you get it done, so I don't like talking about it, but it's going okay. The Iran situation is going pretty good, I think," he said.

Upon his return from Washington last week, Netanyahu declared that his relations with the President were as good as ever and that Trump was about to force Tehran into an agreement that would completely dismantle its nuclear program, similar to the one President George W. Bush’s administration forced on Libya in 2003, which saw Tripoli fully and permanently dismantle its nuclear programme.

Though not officially stated, officials in Jerusalem have privately acknowledged that an agreement under the current US administration would be viewed as deeply problematic, especially given expectations that Trump will not remain in office beyond his current term.

With Iran reportedly close to possessing the material for six nuclear bombs, Israeli officials worry that a deal now would leave the Islamic Republic dangerously close to breakout capability after Trump’s departure.

Officials are also wary of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is known for his expertise and negotiation skills. There is concern in Jerusalem that he may be able to manipulate the American delegation or stall the talks until Trump loses patience and rushes into a deal. All Israel can do for now is wait, and Netanyahu is likely hoping the talks will fail, Amos Harel writes in Haaretz.

Some in Israel quietly hope the talks collapse, potentially paving the way for a credible military option. According to frequent leaks to the media from people close to Netanyahu, Israel and the US were apparently poised to launch a joint attack on Iran. But it turns out once again that Trump prefers negotiations. The threat of an attack is still Washington's leverage in the talks, and an onslaught may be put back on the table if the negotiations go wrong, Amos Harel notes in Haaretz.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated on Sunday that the US hopes for a diplomatic solution to keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, but if that fails, the military was ready "to go deep and to go big". Hegseth on Sunday described the first, tentative contacts in Oman as “productive” and “a good step”. He told CBS’s “Face the Nation” that while President Trump hoped to never have to resort to a military option, “We’ve shown a capability to go far, to go deep, and to go big.” "Again, we don’t want to do that, but if we have to, we will to prevent the nuclear bomb in Iran’s hands.”

Trump said on Wednesday that military action was “absolutely” possible — in conjunction with Israel — if the talks in Oman failed. “If it requires military, we’re going to have military,” he told reporters. “Israel will obviously be very much involved in that, be the leader of that.”

Meanwhile, in a development reflecting the broader regional concerns, US Air Force chief Gen. David Allvin recently met with his Israeli counterpart, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, at the Pentagon. The IDF had not previously disclosed Bar's trip to Washington, suggesting the sensitive nature of the discussions — presumed to focus on military contingencies should diplomacy with Iran fail.

READ MORE

Iran nuclear talks expected to continue Saturday in Rome (Barak Ravid, Axios)

Report: US special envoy presented Iran with draft deal that stops short of dismantling nuclear program (Haaretz)

Israeli officials alarmed over soft US stance in nuclear talks with Iran (Ynet News)

A delicate balance between diplomacy and war as the US and Iran sit down for talks (Zvi Bar’el, Haaretz)

First US-Iran talks in years seen as 'positive' as hard-liners cry treason (paywall, Al-Monitor)