What the fall of Assad means for Israel and the region

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria marks a historical and unexpected turn of events in what seems to be yet another chapter in the never-ending surprises produced in the Middle East.

The fact the long, brutal tyranny of 54 years led by the Assad family was toppled in a 12-day attack by the rebels, five years after all analysis considered the high-intensity civil war in Syria to be won by Assad and his Russian and Iranian supporters, is no less than amazing.

The rebel group that led the attack, and which by now is in control of the capital Damascus, is a radical Islamist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda. The group is called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, commonly referred to as HTS, which in Arabic means "the Levant Liberation Committee".

The group was formally established in 2017 as an umbrella organization uniting several radical Islamist groups that operated separately against the Syrian regime since the beginning of the civil war in 2011.

Considered a terror organisation by most Western countries, the HTS and its leading members started their participation in the Syrian civil war as the local branch of Al-Qaeda, swearing allegiance to its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Even though the group's current leader, Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, announced in the past that he no longer has "external ties" with Al-Qaeda, it is still believed that deep ideological similarity and probable political influence still exist.

Over the last five years, HTS's influence was confined to a limited geographical area in north-western Syria, along the border with Turkey. Under its control, the area, known as the Idlib province, has practically become a haven for all Sunni Islamist groups that were forced to retreat from other parts of the country, as the Assad regime forces, with the massive assistance of Russian troops and Iranian militias, regained their control over most of the country.

In Idlib, the HTS established a self-governing entity. At the same time, it enjoyed the assistance of Turkey and received Erdogan's military protection against any attempt by the Assad regime to regain control of the province. From a Turkish perspective, HTS was an instrumental tool to counterbalance the weight of the US-supported Kurdish forces operating in Northern Syria, which are considered in Ankara as terrorists who pose a threat to Turkish national security.

The cooperation between the radical HTS and the Islamist regime in Turkey led by Erdogan was a source of constant tension between the US and Turkey over the years. Turkey claimed that its contacts with HTS leadership moderated the organization but this conflicted with the reality in Idlib, where the HTS established a radical authoritarian Islamist regime that brutally eliminated all of its rivals and imposed a strict Islamist regime on the population.

Nevertheless, HTS's ideology has evolved over the years as part of its leadership attempts to distance itself from Al-Qaeda publicly. Today, the group's ideology is publicly framed as nationalistic Syrian-focused and not globally aspired like Al-Qaeda, and more accepting of other religions and minorities. 

With the speedy ascent to the position of national leadership, HTS and Al-Jolani will have to face new challenges and responsibilities. Their decisions and actions in the upcoming weeks and months will determine whether the takeover of Damascus will be just another phase in the 13-year-long Syrian civil war or a launchpad for a new order in the war-torn country.

For now, it seems that a sceptical Western approach would be a wise choice, as the recent developments in Syria are rare cases in which the phrase ״the enemy of my enemy is my friend״ is not immediately applicable.

From the Israeli perspective, the toppling of the Assad regime and the coming to power of radical Islamist groups hold mixed implications. On the positive side, the fall of Assad put an end to the Iranian presence and influence in Syria and cut the land connection between Hezbollah in Lebanon and its patrons in Tehran. This reflects a significant blow to Tehran's regional aspirations and its years-long vision of a circle of fire surrounding Israel.

Under these circumstances, Iran will face great difficulty in rebuilding Hezbollah, its flagship proxy in the region, after the severe blows it had suffered from Israel in the past months. The implications of a weak and isolated Hezbollah in Lebanon could be catastrophic from Tehran's point of view after it invested in the organisation hundreds of millions of dollars in efforts to turn it into a deterrent designed to prevent Israel from attacking Tehran's nuclear project.

This outcome will enable Israel (and the US) to consider more aggressive policies towards the now vulnerable regime in Tehran.

On the other hand, Israel should watch carefully the future steps of the new regime in Damascus. By now, the IDF has already destroyed, through a string of massive airstrikes over the past days, the Syrian military production and stockpile of advanced military equipment and chemical weapons. Those airstrikes seemed to be a contingency plan meant to prevent the fall of those capabilities into the hands of the radical Islamists now in power.

Concurrently, Israeli ground forced entered the UN designated buffer zone in the Golan heights, improving their defensive positions in order to face any attempt to threat international border.

Aside from those immediate military steps, Israel and its allies should take all necessary precautions to ensure that the rise of the Islamist regime in Damascus will not create a shockwave that could challenge the stability of the neighbouring Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

This crucial Israeli ally, which has proved its significant role in Israel's security during the two Iranian missiles attacks earlier this year, is constantly challenged by domestic Islamists elements in the Kingdom. No effort should be spared to prevent attempts to topple the King as part of a radical Islam momentum that may spring from  the events in Syria.

The historic significance fall of a years-long regime in a major Arab country like Syria cannot be overstated. The implications of this event stretch beyond the borders from Syria and introduce new opportunities and threats to a very unstable Middle East. Israel and its allies must watch carefully the unfolding events and calculate their moves accordingly as the geo-strategic landscape of the region undergoes historical changes. 

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The stunning collapse of Syria's Assad regime has sent tremors throughout the Middle East and wider world, launching a new chapter in a great power struggle that has shaped the region for decades.

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The fall of Bashar al-Assad was almost unthinkable just a week ago, when rebels started their astonishing campaign against the regime from their base in Idlib, in Syria's north-west.

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The swift and unexpected fall of the Syrian capital, Damascus, to Sunni opposition forces marks a pivotal moment in the modern history of the Middle East.

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Israel accidentally helped spark regime change in Syria — what’s next? (Forward)
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