What the fall of Assad means for Israel and the region

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria marks a historical and unexpected turn of events in what seems to be yet another chapter in the never-ending surprises produced in the Middle East.

The fact the long, brutal tyranny of 54 years led by the Assad family was toppled in a 12-day attack by the rebels, five years after all analysis considered the high-intensity civil war in Syria to be won by Assad and his Russian and Iranian supporters, is no less than amazing.

The rebel group that led the attack, and which by now is in control of the capital Damascus, is a radical Islamist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda. The group is called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, commonly referred to as HTS, which in Arabic means "the Levant Liberation Committee".

The group was formally established in 2017 as an umbrella organization uniting several radical Islamist groups that operated separately against the Syrian regime since the beginning of the civil war in 2011.

Considered a terror organisation by most Western countries, the HTS and its leading members started their participation in the Syrian civil war as the local branch of Al-Qaeda, swearing allegiance to its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Even though the group's current leader, Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, announced in the past that he no longer has "external ties" with Al-Qaeda, it is still believed that deep ideological similarity and probable political influence still exist.

Over the last five years, HTS's influence was confined to a limited geographical area in north-western Syria, along the border with Turkey. Under its control, the area, known as the Idlib province, has practically become a haven for all Sunni Islamist groups that were forced to retreat from other parts of the country, as the Assad regime forces, with the massive assistance of Russian troops and Iranian militias, regained their control over most of the country.