Why Iran has not yet retaliated against Israel

Iran vowed revenge at the end of last month after Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, leading many in Israel to fear an imminent attack. Nearly two weeks have passed, and no large-scale response has materialised, leaving Israel and the wider Middle East on edge.

A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaani, said that “it is necessary to punish Israel,” echoing comments from other senior Iranian officials. But he also said that “Tehran is not interested in escalating the regional conflicts”.

The crisis comes at an especially delicate moment in Iran. Iran has a new president Masoud Pezeshkian and his cabinet, including the foreign minister, is yet to be approved.

Pezeshkian, who is seen as a reformist, may try to balance a perceived need to project strength with his government’s broader interest in alleviating the effects of Western economic sanctions and in preventing Iran from becoming further isolated internationally, said Sanam Vakil, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House.

“The response has to be carefully calibrated so as not to slam shut the door of negotiations with the West that could lead to potential sanctions relief.”

A military response that is viewed as largely symbolic is also risky from Tehran’s perspective, but it would be unlikely to deter Israel from conducting further attacks, said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director of Crisis Group.

That leaves the option of a substantive response, but that would, in turn, likely provoke a bigger Israeli response — and Tehran would not be able to control the cycle of escalation that could follow.

“Israel has checkmated Iran in this situation because Iran is left with no good options,” said Vaez.

READ MORE

Why Iran has not yet retaliated against Israel for Hamas leader’s killing (Matthew Mpoke Bigg, NY Times, paywall)

RELATED STORIES

Iran rejects Western calls to refrain from attack on Israel (BBC)
Iran has dismissed calls from the UK and other Western countries to refrain from retaliation against Israel for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month.

Biden says Iran could hold off on Israel attack if Gaza deal reached (Axios)
President Biden told reporters he expects Iran to hold off on possibly attacking Israel if a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal is reached in the next few days.

High-stakes Gaza ceasefire talks resume this week. Here are the main obstacles to a deal (CNN)
Mediators in talks for a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel are making a last-ditch effort to revive stalled negotiations as the Middle East braces for an Iranian attack on Israel.

Israel sending high-level team to Doha talks, seen as possible last chance for deal (Times of Israel)
Team led by heads of Mossad, Shin Bet; Hamas sends mixed messages on participation; Jerusalem said to demand all 33 hostages returned in first stage must be alive.

Hamas will not join Gaza ceasefire talks, senior official says (BBC)
A senior Hamas official told the BBC that it will not participate in the indirect talks on a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal due to resume in Doha on Thursday.