Published: 24 September 2020
Last updated: 4 March 2024
“IF DONALD TRUMP WINS a second term, there’s a very good chance we will see a tsunami of Arab countries signing up for treaties with Israel,” says Barak Ravid, Israel’s foremost diplomatic correspondent, “because they know he will be there for four years and want to be on his good side.”
Will Saudi Arabia be among them, he was asked by Irris Makler in a frank and wide-ranging conversation last night, hosted by The Jewish Independent. “I think there’s a good chance [it] will be among them,” he replied. “The king is old and if Crown Prince bin Salman becomes king, it raises the chances of normalising relations with Israel.”
But if Joe Biden wins the presidential election in November, he added, the US will have very large changes in the relationship with Israel. "US policy on a lot of issues will change, and cause a lot of tension, for example over Iran, and also the location of the US embassy in Jerusalem, if Biden wants to move it."
Ravid acknowledged that the recent treaties with UAE and Bahrain constituted Benjamin Netanyahu’s “biggest achievement as prime minister. Without a doubt it will be a big part of his legacy.”
But it’s not the legacy he was pursuing, Ravid explained. “Netanyahu was pushing for annexation of the West Bank. He let that all that go.
It was not easy for him, said Ravid. “Up till now, whenever Netanyahu had a choice between personal gain and the national interest, he chose personal gain. But not this time. To his credit, this time he chose the national interest.
“But I do not think this agreement could have taken place if the UAE crown prince had not been so dedicated to stopping annexation.”
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While Ravid says there will be many benefits to the treaties – they will be “without baggage”, and involve genuinely warmer relations with business and tourism, he added that there will also be a distinct dividend for the Arab countries involved.
“The treaties with the Arab states will give them leverage over Israel. For example, they will make it impossible for Israel to take unilateral steps towards annexation,” he explained.
Asked about the value of these treaties compared to one with the Palestinians, Ravid was candid but resigned. “It is more important to have peace with them but unfortunately I do not see, with the current leaderships of the Palestinians and Israel, any chance of breakthrough,” he said. “As depressing as that might be, that is the reality.”
While Netanyahu has been fixed on subduing Palestinian national aspirations, as he tried to pursue annexation, he simply lost interest on the other pressing issue facing Israel – the Covid pandemic.
After leading a successful response to the first wave, the prime minister switched off, and shifted his focus to annexation, Ravid said. He stopped caring about corona and let all the corona infrastructure, like the command and control centre, be dismantled.
“There was mismanagement until the infection rates increased again. He finally appointed a corona czar (commissioner) two months ago. The government took four weeks to approve his plan, but it was too late (for it have much impact) and they had to go into total lockdown.”
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In the meantime, however, a major protest movement – agitating for him to resign over allegations of corruption and mismanagement of the pandemic – has gained momentum across Israel.
The weekly protests outside the Prime Minister’s official residence in Balfour Street have been going for nearly three months and although Ravid believes they will have “zero political impact” in the long term, he says the demonstrations have got under Netanyahu’s skin.
So much so that he has used the current lockdown to curb the protests, Ravid said, by equating the risk from open-air protests with that of large groups gathering in synagogues.
The lockdowns announced this week forbid anyone to attend a protest more than one kilometre from their home, effectively outlawing mass protests while the lockdowns are in force.
Ravid was scathing about this clampdown. “There is no evidence that the protests have any impact on the spread of infection. “The rhetoric that puts prayer in a closed synagogue on the same level as protests in open spaces is plain political manipulation.
“The last Balfour (anti-Netanyahu) protest had 3000 people; among the ultra-Orthodox, there are 25,000 men studying in enclosed buildings.”
“This shows you the real motive behind Netanyahu’s rhetoric. He is using Covid to shut down dissent against him.
“The government should not restrict, in any way, the demonstrations. If it does, it will be no different from China, or Russia or Belarus.”
“As long as there is no incitement to violence, or racism, there should be no barriers to being stupid [or free speech, or protest].”
