Treason, trauma, and how the war could end

Here’s how Israel is aiming to actually win the war (David Horovitz, Times of Israel)

In Gaza: The goal appears to be to create a dependably safe, Hamas-free northern Gaza, managed by some kind of international mechanism, featuring a non-Palestinian Authority local bureaucracy, with civilians gradually returning, a possible role for private firms in distributing aid, and no prospect of Hamas regaining military or civil governance.

Success in the north of the Strip, it is apparently hoped, would enable a gradual replication of that process through the centre and south. An offer of safe passage for Hamas out of Gaza — akin to the PLO’s forced relocation from Lebanon to Tunis in 1982 — might enable a deal to secure the release of the hostages.

In Lebanon: Hezbollah’s leadership has been largely eliminated, thousands of its fighters have been killed and incapacitated, and a significant proportion of its weaponry has been destroyed.But almost a month later, it is gradually reconstituting its leadership. Its armed forces still number in the tens of thousands. And if, as was being claimed this week, it retains some 30 percent of its rocket and missile capabilities, that would still leave it many times more powerful than most of the world’s armies, and far more potent than Hamas was at the start of this conflict.

What it was planning to do and can no longer do, however, is carry out a mass invasion of northern Israel. This month’s IDF ground operation is destroying Hezbollah’s infrastructure in a band several kilometres deep along the border. The IDF would like to complete that operation within the next few weeks, and potentially enable the return of at least some of the tens of thousands of Israelis who have been forced from their homes in the north since October 8, 2023.