Published: 12 August 2019
Last updated: 4 March 2024
Any weakening of the Blue and White party would be critical in next month’s elections: Avigdor Lieberman, who according to all polls will determine who becomes Israel's next prime minister, has stated more than once that he intends to recommend the leader of the largest party in the Knesset as prime minister.
Therefore, unlike previous elections, in which the size of the political bloc was the exclusive consideration for deciding who would be prime minister, we now face a situation where both the size of the bloc and the size of the party have an equal significance.
Changes in political and public discourses can be explained through several levels of analysis. In this case, Gantz's disappearance (by choice or not) might be a result of transformations occurring on ideological, personal and partisan levels.
On the ideological level, Israeli politics in recent years has been characterised by sharpening and radicalising ideological messages on both sides of the political map. Until the beginning of the second decade of the 2000s, the gaps between Right and Left were minor (with the exception of Yitzhak Rabin's ‘92-‘95 term).
The toughest prime minister in Israel's history, Golda Meir, who refused any compromises with the Arab world, was the head of the Labor party. It was right-wing prime ministers such as Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon who were sometimes more willing to negotiate with Arab countries and make historic sacrifices for peace.
This has dramatically changed in the past decade. The Right, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, has not been prepared for any negotiations with the Palestinians. In addition, its discourse on Israeli Arab citizens, secular people and the Left has reached new degrees of ultra-nationalism, hatred and racism.
On the other side of politics, parties like Meretz, that until recently were defined as "Zionist", now have thousands of Arab and Post-Zionist supporters. The political discussion is becoming far more polarised and ideologically distinct.
This puts the political centre in a difficult position. As its leader, Gantz cannot speak in black and white terms, as do the Right and Left. It is almost by definition more difficult for him to use clear ideological concepts.
Netanyahu, for example, can recruit supporters by warning them of the "Arab voters who are heading to the polling stations in droves". Left-winger Nitzan Horowitz can be unequivocal about the "occupation", the "military regime", and the "1967 borders". Gantz cannot be as unambiguous as these two, and since public discourse is often based on sensation, it is clearly more difficult for Gantz to stand out.
Additionally unlike Netanyahu and Barak, Gantz has a gentle, quiet and "formal" personality. Usually, he does not swear, shout, spread lies, or incite against political rivals. Barak's sharpness and wit make him a much more prominent candidate. Despite his electoral weakness, Barak has become the main object of Netanyahu and Likud party propaganda.
Gantz's hesitant personality does not imply that he would be a worse (or better) prime minister than Netanyahu or Barak, but there is also a strong cultural context here. The popularity of politicians such as Miri Regev and Miki Zohar proves that Israel's culture and mentality tends to reward violence and bullying. Conversely, if you are a gentleman, your chances of becoming a prominent leader are much lower.
Take Tzipi Livni as an example: world leaders, such as former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, testify that she was (internationally) one of the best and most popular foreign ministers in the history of Israel. Many people across the world saw her as a responsible, groundbreaking politician.
In militant Israel, however, she was ridiculed and despised by many, and failed in her long-standing ambition to become prime minister. Aside from the obvious gender issue, this was due to her noble character which did not fit in the brutal political mainstream.
Livni's case should serve as a warning to Gantz. He must work with strategic advisers in order to sell a stronger, more confident political image to the Israeli public. This may be the only possible way for him to be elected prime minister.
There is also an intra-party problem. Yair Lapid overshadows Gantz. This is for all the reasons we have reviewed so far: his ideology is more unequivocal (for example, on the ultra-Orthodox Recruitment Bill), and his temperament, personality and terminology are much more assertive, in the style of Netanyahu or Barak. Gantz made a serious mistake in condemning an anti-Haredi video Lapid has recently uploaded to his Facebook page. The Israeli public appreciates political collegiality and loyalty.
Finally, a more serious problem lies in the question that Israeli voters ask themselves: what are the exact positions of the Blue and White party on key issues Israel is facing? Many rightly argue that this party contains prominent voices that contradict one another. What do Yael German, a former Meretz member, have in common with settlement supporter Moshe Ya'alon?
Some say a centre party is by nature a "supermarket of ideas". Historically, though, this argument is inaccurate. The Shinui party, for instance, had a clear liberal agenda that characterised all its members. Similarly, the Kadima party included mainly liberal Likud members who shared a common disappointment with the increasing volume of conservative voices within their party. In the case of Blue and White, however, this basic connection is missing.
As a leader of a major party, these gaps are very difficult to manage and explain. Thus, it is clear why Gantz would prefer not to be interviewed or to answer difficult questions. In this context, at least, his strategy actually makes sense.
READ MORE
Likud mocks Blue and White for billboards in Cyprus (Jerusalem Post)
Photo: Flash90
