Four possible outcomes of Israel’s Election #5

ALON PINKAS explains possible scenarios for the results of Israel’s tight election and the negotiations which inevitably follow.

A 60-60 tie: This is basically what the surveys are indicating. It essentially means that no one can form a government.  Sixty-sixty will lead to political grandstanding and self-righteous declarations about the urgency for “national unity,” but that’s nonsense. Given the nature of the parties in both blocs, that’s not a viable option. In sequence, Netanyahu and the head of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, Yair Lapid, will be empowered by the president to form a government. Both will fail. The likeliest outcome of 60-60 is another election in March or May next year.

Netanyahu’s bloc wins 61 to 59: Ostensibly, this lets Netanyahu form a very narrow right-wing, ultra-nationalist and religious coalition. His bloc is more cohesive than the anti-bloc. Supposedly, such a government is feasible, but even Netanyahu knows that its ability to govern would be very limited and its far-Right, anti-democratic elements would have serious repercussions both inside and outside Israel.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc reaches 61: Even if this is what you hoped for, don’t uncork the champagne under any circumstances. There’s no guarantee that Lapid can form a government. If both Arab parties – the Islamist United Arab List and the Hadash-Ta’al alliance – clear the 3.25-percent electoral threshold, these outfits will have at least eight seats together. This means that Lapid needs both of them in his government, or he’ll have to govern with 56 or 57 seats and depend on Hadash-Ta’al to support him from the outside.

Conversely, if it’s clear that the anti-Netanyahu bloc can form a government, it’s possible that some Likud lawmakers would rebel against Netanyahu; the same thing could happen in United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox party that’s an ally of Netanyahu.

A clear, decisive outcome: This of course is a highly speculative scenario derived from a result entirely inconsistent with the polls.

Small parties and turnout issues