Turkey emerges as military threat to Israel

Turkey and Israel have had a tense relationship under the presidency of Recep Erdoğan, but until now Turkey has not been seen as an active military threat.

In recent weeks, that has changed. While the IDF is engaged militarily on several fronts stretching from Yemen to Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and the West Bank, and the possibility of a renewed direct confrontation with Iran is still looming, Israeli decision-makers and media outlets have turned their attention to Turkey in recent weeks.

The immediate trigger for this concern was the unusual Israeli Air Force strike on a Syrian airbase located only 70 kilometres from the Turkish border, where, according to Israel, Turkey was planning to position advanced radar and air-defence systems.

Israeli officials referred to the strike as a “kinetic message” to both Turkey and Syria, after a message delivered earlier through a more conventional method had failed to convey Israel’s “red line” regarding the ongoing military cooperation between Ankara and Damascus.

The Israeli airstrike was heavily criticised by Turkey, Syria and the United States, and was seen as an Israeli “overreach” that could have led to an unwanted escalation. Critics argued that the strike was motivated mainly by Netanyahu’s need to strengthen his image as a “strong leader” in the domestic arena ahead of the upcoming elections.

Whether that was the real motivation behind the strike or not, the event demonstrated Israel’s genuine concern over Turkey’s expanding military presence in Syria specifically, and in the Eastern Mediterranean in general.

It is no secret that during President Erdoğan’s 23 years in power, Turkey has moved from being a strategic partner of Israel to becoming a fierce rival. Until Erdoğan’s rise to power in 2003, Israel and Turkey maintained an extremely close alliance that included joint military drills and the upgrading of Turkish military aircraft and tanks by Israeli companies. Erdoğan, an Islamist politician affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, pursued a consistently anti-Israeli policy that dramatically changed the nature of the bilateral relationship.