Gaza ceasefire: cautious optimism after a tense week

A few days ago the ceasefire appeared close to collapse. The week began with Hamas announcing it was freezing the implementation of the first phase of the hostage deal—and was further inflamed by US President Donald Trump pouring fuel on the fire, declaring that if Hamas did not release all the hostages by Saturday at noon, the ceasefire should be scrapped and Israel should "let all hell break loose".

But the danger has rolled back. It now appears that both Hamas and Israel want to continue with stage one of the deal as originally signed. This would mean the release of three hostages on Saturday and the start of serious negotiations on stage two.

Haaretz reported last night that Israeli officials believe Hamas is interested in continuing the first stage of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal while jumpstarting negotiations for the second phase. According to these assessments, Hamas’ primary concern is mounting internal pressure from Gaza residents, who are returning to the northern part of the Strip and witnessing the massive devastation left by the IDF. Israeli security evaluations suggest that Hamas recognises failing to secure a meaningful achievement for the population—already reeling from heavy wartime losses—will only increase internal pressure on the organisation. A collapse of the deal could halt prisoner releases, disrupt humanitarian aid, and stall initial reconstruction efforts in northern Gaza, all of which would likely fuel public frustration. From Hamas’ perspective, keeping negotiations on track is crucial to pushing the deal forward until the war concludes.

In Israel, political pressure from far-right coalition parties was to follow Trump’s suggestion and give Hamas an ultimatum to release all hostages by Saturday. On Tuesday, a series of conflicting statements from officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, indicated that Hamas must release “our hostages,” “nine hostages,” or “all of them” for the ceasefire to continue. However, Israeli officials told Axios that during a security cabinet meeting, the heads of the Israeli negotiating team urged Netanyahu and other ministers not to escalate the situation. They advised that Israel should attempt to resolve the crisis with Qatari and Egyptian mediators to secure the release of three hostages on Saturday and the remaining hostages over the next three weeks. On Wednesday night, Israel sent a message to Hamas via Egypt and Qatar, stating that the hostage release-ceasefire deal would continue if the terror group released three more hostages on Saturday.

Amir Tibon outlined three possible scenarios for how events might unfold after Trump’s dramatic announcement:

Most likely scenario (as of today): Hamas adheres to the existing deal and releases three hostages on Saturday but not the other 73. The fate of the second stage of the hostage release and ceasefire deal remains uncertain. Tibon argues that while this outcome isn’t ideal, it’s far from a disaster—most importantly, because three more hostages would be reunited with their families after nearly 500 days in captivity. Additionally, it would signal that Hamas does not take Trump’s threats seriously and that his statements are detached from the real negotiations led by his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, alongside Qatari and Egyptian mediators.

Unlikely scenario: Hamas releases all hostages within days, leading to a new deal to end the war in Gaza. If this were to happen, Trump’s statement could be seen as an effort to bypass the current multi-phase hostage deal and push for a faster, more comprehensive agreement. This aligns with the request made by Jon and Rachel Goldberg-Polin, the parents of murdered American-Israeli hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin, who urged Trump to secure a full hostage release. While such a deal would be difficult to achieve, it’s not impossible—Hamas wants an official, verifiable end to the war, and Israel wants all hostages returned. However, Israel is unlikely to end the war before every hostage is freed, and Hamas won’t release them without guarantees the war will stop.

Worst-case scenario: The diplomatic effort failed to ensure a larger deal or the continuation of the current agreement. As a result, Hamas defies Trump and refuses to release all 76 hostages on Saturday, concluding that Netanyahu and Trump have already agreed to end the ceasefire. If this happens, the war will resume at full force, putting every living hostage in Gaza at imminent risk. This scenario would result in further death and destruction in Gaza and could lead to a direct confrontation between Israel and Egypt. If Israel attempts to implement Trump’s population transfer plan—pushing Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula against Egypt’s opposition—it could provoke a major regional crisis. This is the nightmare scenario for Israel, the hostage families, and the people of Gaza.

On Tuesday, Trump reiterated his commitment to the forced displacement of Palestinians and even threatened to withhold billions in aid from Jordan and Egypt if they refused to accept refugees from Gaza. This followed fierce opposition from Hamas and all Sunni Arab regimes allied with Washington.

In a meeting with Trump, earlier in the week, Jordan’s King Abdullah announced that Jordan would accept 2,000 Palestinian children for medical treatment. “It’s a beautiful gesture. Music to my ears,” Trump responded. However, the king later wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that he had reaffirmed Jordan’s opposition to the displacement of Palestinians. “This is the unified Arab position. Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians, and addressing the dire humanitarian situation, should be the priority for all,” he stated.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi also signalled his disapproval. Two Egyptian security sources told Reuters that Al-Sisi would cancel his planned White House visit if discussions included Trump’s displacement plan.

Encouraging signs of life have been received for most hostages whom Israel had previously believed to be alive. On Wednesday, the families of three additional hostages announced that they had received confirmation their loved ones were still alive, bringing the total to 10 in recent days, according to The Times of Israel. Channel 12 news also reported that two additional families had received signs of life but chose to keep the information private. Only one of these 10 hostages is on the list of the 33 captives that Hamas is supposed to release in the first phase of the ceasefire-hostage deal. The families of Yosef Chaim Ohana, Matan Angrest, and Eitan Mor—all held captive in Gaza—called on the Israeli government to sign Stage 2 of the hostage deal with Hamas. Their families are urging the Israeli government to finalise negotiations to bring them home.

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"High on Trump": Netanyahu sees Trump's Gaza gambits as Israel's big chance (Axios)

Amid the ceasefire wrangling, how popular is Hamas in Gaza now? (The Guardian)

After Trump's bombastic Gaza threat, three scenarios for the war and hostages (Amir Tibon, Haaretz)  

Trump's ultimatum upends Gaza cease-fire and could derail hostage release (Amos Harel, Haaretz)

Israeli Security Officials Estimate Hamas Wants to Continue Hostage Deal, Start Second Stage Talks (Haaretz)