Netanyahu’s electoral calculations will influence Iran war

Last June, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a press conference at the conclusion of the 12-day war against the ayatollahs’ regime in Iran.

He went into great detail about how the Israeli operation had removed “the existential threat of Iran”; how the serried ranks of Iranian nuclear scientists had been liquidated; how factories producing centrifuges had been pulverised “one after another”; how hundreds of ballistic missiles and a plethora of launchers had been eliminated; how the main isotopic enrichment facility at Natanz had been destroyed.

If that war had been so encompassing and conclusive, according to Netanyahu, why then was it necessary to implement Operation Roaring Lion this year on February 28?

Last week, the Minister of Defence Israel Katz explained to the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate that the imperative for the Iranian regime was “to rebuild the intelligence capability—not only rebuild it but expand it tenfold”.

He told Israel’s Channel 12 television that the IDF had planned Operation Roaring Lion to take place in mid-2026 but at the request of the Americans, it had been moved forward – and probably because of the mass demonstrations against the regime.

On the surface, this appears to be an American war which Israel will exploit to its own security benefit. One motive is that a dysfunctional White House wanted to contain China in a global sense. China purchased 80% of Iranian oil in 2025 at a time when its annual growth target has been lowered to its lowest level since 1991. 

Despite Netanyahu’s triumphalist inconsistency, Iran commenced this war with 2,000 medium range ballistic missiles and over 6,000 short range ones, and there have been reports that China was rebuilding Iran’s missile and drone capability.