South Africa’s Faustian bet on everything from electricity to Israel

South Africa is days away from what many believe will be a historical election. For some time now polls have been predicting that the African National Congress, the ruling party since 1994, will get less than 50% of the vote. In the last few days, some surveys have posited a further decline in ANC support to around 40% and a rise of the opposition, Democratic Alliance, to near 30%.

South African polling, however, has come in for some heavy criticism so these figures may signal an election becoming more and more competitive or they may reflect a polling industry whose methods are opaque and sometimes downright unprofessional. The election will be held on Wednesday 29 May so we will soon find out.

Either way, it is apparent that an important political change is underway.  

A key issue is voter turnout. In 2019, the last national election, turnout was 66%, a near 10% decrease from the national election before. If this trend continues, then polls based on a 60% or even 58% voter turnout seem likely.

The combination of fewer voters and declining vote share means, the ANC can expect between 9% and 17% fewer votes. This will represent not so much a rupture but a steady pattern of ANC decline that started in 2009.  

ANC is still highly likely to be the winning party. But, in addition to the established Democratic Alliance, a centrist party that has strong support amongst the country’s minorities, including Jews, it faces opposition from the newly formed MK party, a break-away party from the ANC, founded by the former President of the ANC and of the country, Jacob Zuma.