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HomeRead, Watch, ListenIsrael
Israel Iran WarAnalysisIsrael

Netanyahu’s Iran strategy has failed

With his claims of ‘total victory’ in tatters, Israel is now mired in another Netanyahu war, where the enemy refuses to keep to the Prime Minister's script.
Colin Shindler
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Israel Faces Iranian Missiles And Drones In War’s Second Month

An Israeli baby sits near a tail section of a ballistic missile from Iran that landed in the Jordan Valley on April 3, 2026 (Amir Levy/Getty Images)

Published: 13 April 2026

Last updated: 13 April 2026

The breakdown of negotiations between Iran and the US does not bode well for humanity, but it has been welcomed wholeheartedly by Benjamin Netanyahu, who hopes the delay may yet provide time for the ayatollahs to capitulate.

On February 28, shortly after launching an attack on Tehran, Netanyahu announced three war aims:

  • Eliminate the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons
  • Neutralise the threat of ballistic missiles, their launchers and storage locations
  • Overthrow the Ayatollahs’ regime with the assistance of the Iranian people

It is clear that while tremendous damage has been meted out to Iran’s military machine, Netanyahu’s repeated claims of “total victory” are demonstrably false. None of the three aims have been realised. His military successes have been overshadowed by a glaring strategic failure.

As a result, the Israeli media now speaks of “Netanyahu’s wars” – from Gaza to Iran to Lebanon, where Israel’s enemies refuse to keep to the official script. Netanyahu’s response is to intensify pressure in the hope that the enemy will crack.

However, this has led to overreach such as the Israeli bombing of Qatar last autumn, which in turn forced a furious Trump to read the riot act to Netanyahu – and produced a ceasefire in Gaza.

Netanyahu's weakness is overreach

Overreach is Netanyahu’s Achilles Heel. The initial approach of the Israeli public is to overwhelmingly support the IDF in any war. Its support then decreases dramatically as the fighting gets bogged down, casualties rise and public fatigue sets in. Wise leaders and realistic generals in the past knew when to stop. They understood the meaning of containment.

Netanyahu is today’s exception and there are no domestic restraints. It appears that the Islamists of Tehran are well aware of this repeated pattern.

While the decapitation of Tehran’s reactionary leadership caused no tears to be shed and air supremacy was swiftly achieved, the regime did not fall, and shows no sign of doing so. US intelligence reported last week that Tehran still has thousands of missiles at its disposal.

Moreover, stabilisation of the conflict did not occur. The chain of command in Iran was not vertical but horizontal, so that regional military officers acted on their own volition and instincts. The closing of the Straits of Hormuz was a local move but with global consequences.

The absence of a quick victory and capitulation brought in Russia and China. Putin repaid the ayatollahs for their willingness to sell drone expertise to the Kremlin by supplying military intelligence to pinpoint Israeli and American military resources.

This in turn provided the Ukrainians with the opportunity to instruct the Americans on how to counteract Russian drones. It has further been reported, by CNN, that Beijing will channel air defence systems to Iran through third parties.

Netanyahu has always said the words that American presidents have wished to hear. In June 2009 he  told an audience at Bar-Ilan University: “In my vision of peace, in this small land of ours, two peoples live freely, side by side, in amity and mutual respect . . . Each will have its own flag, its own national anthem, its own government. Neither will threaten the security or survival of the other.

His apparent espousal of a two-state solution – albeit with caveats – reflected his relationship with then-US President Barack Obama. All this changed with the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House in 2016. To use American parlance, Netanyahu plays presidents – and Trump is no different.

The US war against Iran provided Netanyahu with the opportunity to exploit the chaos of Trump’s second administration. Nightly menacing messages on Truth Social demonstrated Trump’s contradictory statements and sheer absence of planning.

Israel a minor partner with different aims

While the media often depicted the US and Israel as allies in this war, the reality was that Israel was a minor partner with different aims. They were never equals going in the same direction.

The Ayatollahs’ regime is a current and immediate existential threat to Israel but this is not the case with the United States. If Vice-President Vance’s statement last Sunday is to be believed, the Iranians have no intention of giving up their drive to manufacture nuclear weapons.

Indeed, the hundreds of kilograms of enriched Uranium have still not been retrieved by the Americans and are likely to have been hidden in some remote subterranean location.

Netanyahu imitated Trump’s call for regime change, and Iranian exiles the world over called for the return of the Shah’s son. “Help is on the way” said Trump and thousands of Iranians believed him as they were cut down like dogs by the regime’s holy executioners.

Most Israelis understood that “American First” did not mean “Israel Second”. They too could be deserted by the unreliable Americans – just like the Iranians. The subsequent death of Israelis might be explained away as merely a transactional mishap – a blip in the search for a greater good. Israelis now ask whether Trump is an asset or a liability.

Hezbollah came in late to the war against Iran whether grudgingly or deliberately. The limited response to Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel initially turned into an incursion with boots on the ground with plans to occupy the border up to the River Litani.

Israel occupied this area between 1982-99 and ended in an abrupt withdrawal across the border which included members of the South Lebanon Army, a Christian militia which allied itself with Israel. History demonstrates that this conflict did not end well. Hezbollah proceeded to once more occupy and control the territory.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry has indicated that in the current conflict, almost 2,000 people have been killed – although the number of Hezbollah operatives amongst them has not been published. The killing of 300 people in and around Beirut residential quarters last Wednesday suggests incompetence or indifference – or both – on the part of Israeli military planners.

Netanyahu’s hope has been that the current war against an existential enemy will provide a tremendous boost in his standing in the polls in an election year. This has not happened – and some polls report a decrease in support for his current coalition. If the election happens tomorrow, according to the polls, Naftali Bennett’s coalition of Netanyahu’s opponents will be the victor.

War has not delivered election boost

The formal election day is October 27 this year. It is significant that Netanyahu has not brought the date forward.

Trump, too, has election problems with the mid-term elections in November and the Republicans are expected to do badly.

The war against Iran is unpopular in the United States and will increase in unpopularity the longer it goes on. Even Trump’s MAGA base is turning against him. On the question of seeking peace, prosperity and keeping out of foreign wars, many believe that Trump has lied to them.

It is interesting to note that his MAGA acolytes are divided. Non-Jews such as Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes and Megyn Kelly have vehemently condemned the conflict, while Jews on the far Right such as Ben Shapiro and Laura Loomer have supported the war.

The director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned his position in mid-March in protest – and blamed the war on Israel and “its powerful American lobby”. The whiff of anti-Jewish sentiment has been disinterred from the MAGA arsenal.

The coming months may well see a criticism of the Americanisation of Israel during the election campaign. For many, Trump has now become its symbol with his emphasis on the individual over the collective, free enterprise over state-owned industries, a propensity for war over a desire for peace.

Public opinion in Israel over many decades has always sided with the views of the Republican party rather than that of American Jews, who tend to favour the Democrats.

Netanyahu’s war of choice against Iran may finally change that.

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About the author

Colin Shindler

Colin Shindler

Colin Shindler is an emeritus professor of Israel Studies at SOAS, University of London. He is the author of several books about Israel: the latest "A Forever War: Israel, Palestine and the Struggles for Statehood" was published in 2026.

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