On heels of the ceasefire, Trump II era begins

Less than a week out from taking office, President-elect Donald Trump’s immediate response to Biden's announcement of a ceasefire in Gaza was to claim on social media that “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November.”

That is a big claim given that the agreement follows the contours of the three-phase approach that President Biden announced last May and which has been ardently pursued since then by his longtime Mideast negotiator Brett H. McGurk.

But the timing and manner of the agreement gives credence to the recent assertion of journalist Dan Perry that Trump has “enormous leverage on the one person who can end the conflict: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu”.

Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, worked closely with McGurk, particularly in pressuring Netanyahu in regard to Trump’s seriousness when he said that he wanted a ceasefire in place before he took office. Trump is not known for having a collaborative approach and, as the New York Times noted, it is rare for representatives of current and new presidents of different parties worked together at such a high-stakes moment.

But with Trump taking office on Monday, his capacity to have a positive long term impact on the Middle East remains in question.

The first phase of the ceasefire is for just six weeks and, ultimately, a ceasefire is far from a comprehensive vision and plan for peace between Israel and Palestine and across the region. A compelling approach was outlined this week by outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a hard-hitting, final address on the matter. Blinken called for an expanded scope for the Palestinian Authority with purview over Gaza as well as the West Bank and for the Netanyahu government to step back from its goals of settlement and territorial expansion.